Will Flames make the playoffs?

[Vinny01]

This is the first major milestone of the season where the Flames are not in the playoffs. They could possibly end up in a spot by points if Colorado loses today but they won’t be on points %. They were in at US Thanksgiving and Christmas/New Year but won’t be at the all-star break. The next and final benchmark before the end of the season is the trade deadline.

This team could miss and this team could win the division. I feel it really comes down to 2 players and they are Markstrom and Huberdeau. If each can play to their level from last season down the stretch then this team likely is in a spot to win the division. If they continue to be the average players they have been it will be a dogfight to get in. I know they call the Lindholm/Toffoli line the top line but if this team is going to go on a run the Huberdeau/Kadri line needs to take that title.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

This is the first major milestone of the season where the Flames are not in the playoffs. They could possibly end up in a spot by points if Colorado loses today but they won’t be on points %. They were in at US Thanksgiving and Christmas/New Year but won’t be at the all-star break. The next and final benchmark before the end of the season is the trade deadline.

This team could miss and this team could win the division. I feel it really comes down to 2 players and they are Markstrom and Huberdeau. If each can play to their level from last season down the stretch then this team likely is in a spot to win the division. If they continue to be the average players they have been it will be a dogfight to get in. I know they call the Lindholm/Toffoli line the top line but if this team is going to go on a run the Huberdeau/Kadri line needs to take that title.

This seems about right. I can't think of any reason that Huberdeau and Markstrom will suddenly flip a switch and be different players than they have been all season, so not much chance of seeing last year's versions of themselves. But some steady improvement from those two should see us solidify a playoff spot hopefully.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

This is the first major milestone of the season where the Flames are not in the playoffs. They could possibly end up in a spot by points if Colorado loses today but they won’t be on points %. They were in at US Thanksgiving and Christmas/New Year but won’t be at the all-star break. The next and final benchmark before the end of the season is the trade deadline.

This team could miss and this team could win the division. I feel it really comes down to 2 players and they are Markstrom and Huberdeau. If each can play to their level from last season down the stretch then this team likely is in a spot to win the division. If they continue to be the average players they have been it will be a dogfight to get in. I know they call the Lindholm/Toffoli line the top line but if this team is going to go on a run the Huberdeau/Kadri line needs to take that title.

Last night was the first time I’m starting to have confidence that Huberdeau could get going. I do think Pelletier being in the top 9 is making line combos better. Sutter has more to work with and we could see 3 very good line’s starting now.

Markstrom needs to get hot and Tanev needs to come back though

[Sylvanfan]

50 games in and the team has yet to have a clean sheet or shut out. For a Sutter coached team that is somewhat unusual. The strength of this team was supposed to be its defence but I really have not seen this team play like a top end defensive team yet this season. They're not skilled enough to be an elite offensive team, and they have not played like an elite defensive team. Only 30 games left to get some type of identity. Right now they're an aimless middling team at everything if seems.

[TheChief]

I voted no a while back and while I still think they wont make it I still have this glimmer of hope that they will figure it out before the season ends and do some damage.

[neo45]

I think they’ll make it but should still be sellers and definitely not buyers


Vegas is trending down, LA has a negative goal differential, there are a lot of games left with Vladar starting more than he has been to this point

[Locke]

Originally Posted by TheChief

I voted no a while back and while I still think they wont make it I still have this glimmer of hope that they will figure it out before the season ends and do some damage.

I voted no and I still think no.

We are (supposedly) coming into an easier part of the schedule for the Flames, since the Flames seem to dial the suck up to 11 on easy games that they should win I think this 'strength of schedule' or lack thereof, actually works against them.

If they squeak in it will probably be largely due to the fact that our division is brutally bad.

But I havent seen any indications that this team could make any noise regardless.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

50 games in and the team has yet to have a clean sheet or shut out. For a Sutter coached team that is somewhat unusual. The strength of this team was supposed to be its defence but I really have not seen this team play like a top end defensive team yet this season. They're not skilled enough to be an elite offensive team, and they have not played like an elite defensive team. Only 30 games left to get some type of identity. Right now they're an aimless middling team at everything if seems.

The only other teams to not have a SO this far into the season is Columbus, Montreal, Vancouver, and Edmonton. It just goes to show how bad the Flames defense and goaltending has been this season. There have only been a very small handful of games they have only let in a single goal. Has to be a massive disappointment for a guy like Treliving that has put so many resources over the years into defenseman.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

This seems about right. I can't think of any reason that Huberdeau and Markstrom will suddenly flip a switch and be different players than they have been all season, so not much chance of seeing last year's versions of themselves. But some steady improvement from those two should see us solidify a playoff spot hopefully.

With Markstrom it seems to be a mental thing but could also be some nagging injuries. The mental and physical rest could be beneficial. Goalies are tough to predict and seem to go on hot/cold runs periodically during a season. We haven’t really witnessed a truly elite performance from him yet and we might not this year but I believe there is potential.

I hope with Huberdeau he also enjoys the mental and physical reset that comes with the break. He has put a lot of pressure on himself and seems to be overthink and overpassing a lot of times. His new role as mentor for Pelletier gives him a new role he can focus on and playing with Pelletier who adds speed to his line could make for a much much better fit than Lucic and perhaps the points start coming in bunches.

Ultimately this team has the makings of a contender on paper if Hubderdeau and Markstrom elevate their games. Between the Kadri and Lindholm lines you could have more of a 1(a)-1(b) situation. Not a dominant line like last year but 2 lines that can produce and compete as a number 1 line. The Mangi-Backs-Coles line is the type of third line that championship teams have. They were the Flames second line last year and look great together this year. All 3 forwards have been their best since this line was reunited. The Blueline when healthy is solid and if they could get Kylington back then I think it is a very deep group. If Markstrom can find the form that had him the Vezina runner up this year then this team is more than set between the pipes. If this team could score a half a goal more per game and prevent half a goal less they will be one of the elite teams in the league when it is all said and done

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

The only other teams to not have a SO this far into the season is Columbus, Montreal, Vancouver, and Edmonton. It just goes to show how bad the Flames defense and goaltending has been this season. There have only been a very small handful of games they have only let in a single goal. Has to be a massive disappointment for a guy like Treliving that has put so many resources over the years into defenseman.

Goaltending has been average for sure, but the defense thing, not so much.

They are 5th in xGA60 5on5, and 5th in HDCA60 5on5

Those categories for the other teams you mention ...

Columbus 26th/23rd
Montreal 31st/31st
Vancouver 28th/28th
Edmonton 6th/7th

Flames don't have a team defense issue, even with their turnover rates lately.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Goaltending has been average for sure, but the defense thing, not so much.

They are 5th in xGA60 5on5, and 5th in HDCA60 5on5

Those categories for the other teams you mention ...

Columbus 26th/23rd
Montreal 31st/31st
Vancouver 28th/28th
Edmonton 6th/7th

Flames don't have a team defense issue, even with their turnover rates lately.

Team defense has been a huge disappointment for me regardless of what stats you provide. It's not the amount of mistakes, it's how bad the mistakes have been. This is one of the more mediocre Flames teams in recent memory. Not good at scoring and not good at keeping pucks out of the net. +5 goal differential is kind of telling that they just aren't a very good team.

[TheIronMaiden]

Since we've got nothing going on for a few days, can we run this poll again?

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Goaltending has been average for sure, but the defense thing, not so much.

They are 5th in xGA60 5on5, and 5th in HDCA60 5on5

Those categories for the other teams you mention ...

Columbus 26th/23rd
Montreal 31st/31st
Vancouver 28th/28th
Edmonton 6th/7th

Flames don't have a team defense issue, even with their turnover rates lately.

Are you telling me the Oilers defence is pretty good?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Team defense has been a huge disappointment for me regardless of what stats you provide. It's not the amount of mistakes, it's how bad the mistakes have been. This is one of the more mediocre Flames teams in recent memory. Not good at scoring and not good at keeping pucks out of the net. +5 goal differential is kind of telling that they just aren't a very good team.

Well I said the goaltending hasn't been good, that certainly leads to pucks in the net.

Guess you have your mind made up then! No point in looking at actual data!

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Are you telling me the Oilers defence is pretty good?

No I wouldn't go that far.

They seem to collapse in their own zone and take away the high end chance frequency, but their shot attempts against, shots against, and expected goals against are all middle of the pack.

Think the Stars series in the bubble for Calgary where Ward had them give up the zone and the wall, but protect the slot.

Inevitably ends up in the back of the net when you get tired chasing.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Well I said the goaltending hasn't been good, that certainly leads to pucks in the net.

Guess you have your mind made up then! No point in looking at actual data!

Data does not capture the specifics of egregious breakdowns which leave the goalie with no chance

It is possible for multiple things to be true at the same time

A team can dominate in shots, can dominate in high danger chances, have a low xGA, and can also leave their goalie hung out to dry and cost themselves a game

[Burning Beard]

While both are probably a little bit true, you gotta admit that last year a lot of those breakdowns were being turned away by Markstrom who was certainly playing better than he has this year. When there is a breakdown this year I think it seems worse because a lot of them feel like a guarantee to be in the back of the net with the goaltending feeling a lot more shaky.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Data does not capture the specifics of egregious breakdowns which leave the goalie with no chance

It is possible for multiple things to be true at the same time

A team can dominate in shots, can dominate in high danger chances, have a low xGA, and can also leave their goalie hung out to dry and cost themselves a game

Have never debated that.

But are you seriously arguing that your unsupported view is the Flames have somehow found a way to be worse defensively then their objectively collected numbers suggest compared to the other 31 hockey teams? That Calgary mistakes fall outside of the norm compared to all their peers that we have to ignore the defensive metrics and instead decide it's the defense and not the goaltending.

Or ... their goaltending (starter especially) has been pretty vanilla this year.

I know what train I'm on.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Data does not capture the specifics of egregious breakdowns which leave the goalie with no chance

It is possible for multiple things to be true at the same time

A team can dominate in shots, can dominate in high danger chances, have a low xGA, and can also leave their goalie hung out to dry and cost themselves a game

This matches with Markstrom and allowing the first shot.

It seems we have massive breakdowns when that first shot comes along and it ends up in the back of our net.

The numbers may look decent but it does seem like our blunders feel catastrophic this season.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Have never debated that.

But are you seriously arguing that your unsupported view is the Flames have somehow found a way to be worse defensively then their objectively collected numbers suggest compared to the other 31 hockey teams? That Calgary mistakes fall outside of the norm compared to all their peers that we have to ignore the defensive metrics and instead decide it's the defense and not the goaltending.

Or ... their goaltending (starter especially) has been pretty vanilla this year.

I know what train I'm on.

I don’t particularly understand the ‘your unsupported view’ thing you are saying

But yes. In short, the models do a fine job, within their own limitations.

There are certain things about the goalie’s game that have been indisputably bad and cost the team. Like that muffin from the blue line early in the season

But also yes, the attention to detail on the defensive side, dropped assignments, have led to unnecessary grade A chances.

I don’t feel the need to assign blame to solely goalie or solely team. They both can contribute

The proper way to go about it would be to do like Valiquette did. Manually review every goal scored and evaluate the contributing causes in terms of the overall play

It’s disingenuous to call a view ‘unsupported’ when you are making the case that what matters most are things that are not currently measured