What will Sam Bennett get?

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

If you're trying to answer the question, "did we draft the wrong guy?" then yes, comparing Bennett to Draisaitl isn't meaningful because we didn't have the choice.

If you're trying to answer the question, "is our top-5 draft pick developing as well as he could be?", it's absolutely reasonable to compare him to other players that were ranked similarly as prospects, such as Draisaitl or Reinhart. On draft day they were absolutely in the same tier as prospects.

This has degraded into nonsense at this point, but I'm simply defending how the comparison was used originally by ComixZone - which was to say that we didn't pass on Draisatl to take Bennett, just like how we didn't pass on McDavid to take Andersson, which in that context, makes it a bad comparison (keeping in mind the McDavid example intentionally uses hyperbole to illustrate the point)... nothing more than that.

[magicbell]

Wonder when we will start to hear more about this?

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

If you're trying to answer the question, "did we draft the wrong guy?" then yes, comparing Bennett to Draisaitl isn't meaningful because we didn't have the choice.

If you're trying to answer the question, "is our top-5 draft pick developing as well as he could be?", it's absolutely reasonable to compare him to other players that were ranked similarly as prospects, such as Draisaitl or Reinhart. On draft day they were absolutely in the same tier as prospects.

Okay, then compare them apples-to-apples.

- Age (which of these players was eight or nine months younger than the other two?)
- Linemates (Which of these guys didn't play with Hall, McDavid, Lucic, Eichel, O'Rielly, E. Kane?)
- Position at even strength (Which of these three guys actually played center last year?)
- Power play ice time (Which of these three guys got the least PP ice time? Which unit did they play primarily on?)


And if apples-to-apples is virtually impossible... then admit that, don't bother comparing, and move on.

[Flamescuprun2018]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

A 2 year deal scares me a lot; having both Bennett and Tkachuk up for extension with no other contracts expiring scares me. Either we stay below the cap for the 2018-2019 season just in case, we're forced to trade picks and prospects to dump cap, or we risk losing one (or both). I'm already nervous about Tkachuk's next deal for that reason.

A 3 year deal puts Bennett's next extension at the same time as Brouwer, Frolik, and Brodie expire, so we'll have at least Brouwer's $4.5M to reallocate towards Brodie and Bennett. Say it's a 3 year deal at $3M per. In the 2020 off-season we'll have $16.5M to re-sign those 4. Assuming Brodie's in the $6-7M territory, we'll either have a) Bennett being worth $6-7M as well; we lose Frolik but that's mitigated by Bennett's improvement, or b) Bennett's more in the $4M territory (or less), and we only lose Brouwer.

I really like your logic here. BT sure to have also projected out that far with his "core". I think Bennett would accept a 3 yr deal. 2.5 AAV or slightly higher.

Hamonic or Brodie likely traded as at least one of our current D prospects would likely be ready for a 3 or 4 role by then.

I want to save some cap space this year for Tkachuk overage bonuses so they don't carry forward another year.

[codynw]

Originally Posted by magicbell

Wonder when we will start to hear more about this?

Based on Brad's track record, probably sometime after the contract is signed.

[Gaudfather]

The more I think about this, a three year deal at $2.5MM AAV would be perfect - not sure Bennett's camp will be willing to go that extra year without pushing the AAV higher.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by Gaudfather

The more I think about this, a three year deal at $2.5MM AAV would be perfect - not sure Bennett's camp will be willing to go that extra year without pushing the AAV higher.

That's what I voted. Dream scenario would be 8 years/4M per (I'm convinced that he's going to be at least a 2nd line winger or one of the best 3Cs in the league), but I don't think there's any chance of that.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

That's what I voted. Dream scenario would be 8 years/4M per (I'm convinced that he's going to be at least a 2nd line winger or one of the best 3Cs in the league), but I don't think there's any chance of that.

At some point, the actual dollars matter though. Bennett has not earned a $32 million contract nor should a team make that kind of commitment to him. He is going to get about $5 million.

[Gaudfather]

Actually I would also be a bit concerned if Bennett went for an 8 yr deal at $4MM per - would indicate he doesn't see his ceiling as very high. Not what you would want to see from a fourth overall pick.

[3rd Degree]

My hope is that they sign Bennett to a 4-4.5 mil 7-8 year deal. I think using the slow start to his career in order to drive the cap hit down long term is the right play. If Treliving pulls this off he is a god!

[codynw]

Originally Posted by 3rd Degree

My hope is that they sign Bennett to a 4-4.5 mil 7-8 year deal. I think using the slow start to his career in order to drive the cap hit down long term is the right play. If Treliving pulls this off he is a god!

Why would he bet against himself like that though? I get the guaranteed money thing, but Bennett is a 21 year old 4th overall pick with tons of talent. It'd be dumb to bet against him becoming at least a second line center.

[Samonadreau]

Still think its either 3x3 or 2x2.5

[Canada 02]

Teravainen just signed a 2 year, $2.86M AAV bridge. Guess Bennett will sign something similar

[3rd Degree]

(3X2.5mil bridge deal equivalent) + (4X6mil)= 31.5mil/7years = 4.5mil per for 7 years

This is hardly betting against himself. How much more does he honestly think he'll be worth? Look at Johhny's deal, Tyler Johnson's, and Palat's as a few examples. Signing a log term deal like this is smart for both the team and the player. The team gets low cost certainty when they'll need money to sign Tkatchuk to a HUGE deal. The player gets set for life. What would you do? Risk it all for a potential few extra million or be set for life with 31.5 million US? Anything can happen, injury, not living up to his potential etc. If you're Bennett the upside isn't worth the downside.

Originally Posted by codynw

Why would he bet against himself like that though? I get the guaranteed money thing, but Bennett is a 21 year old 4th overall pick with tons of talent. It'd be dumb to bet against him becoming at least a second line center.

[oldschoolcalgary]

the logic is sound, but couldn't BT simply act to extend Tkachuk after next year if his 2nd year is as good as this past year?

I don't think that's any difference that McDavid signing his extension.

So while i understand the concern, there are circumstances where guys could be extended to avoid the salary accordion...

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Gaudfather

Actually I would also be a bit concerned if Bennett went for an 8 yr deal at $4MM per - would indicate he doesn't see his ceiling as very high. Not what you would want to see from a fourth overall pick.

So Roman Josi didn't think his ceiling was very high and that he capped out at 4M (7 year deal)? Ryan Ellis thinks his ceiling caps out at 2.5M (5 year deal)?

[Gaudfather]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

So Roman Josi didn't think his ceiling was very high and that he capped out at 4M (7 year deal)? Ryan Ellis thinks his ceiling caps out at 2.5M (5 year deal)?

You can play it safe (the bird in the hand thing) or you can perform and say pay me. My view is Bennett is more likely from the latter camp. But this is all a mute point anyway, given it is highly doubtful Tre is offering him any deal longer than three years.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

At some point, the actual dollars matter though. Bennett has not earned a $32 million contract nor should a team make that kind of commitment to him. He is going to get about $5 million.

Yes, there is significant risk here both for the team and the player. He could end up being a 4th liner (highly unlikely), or he could end up being a 1C. But when you look at the balance of probabilities, it is much more likely that he will be worth more than $4M in several years. And there's also risk for both sides in signing a shorter contract; if he ends up being a 4th liner after 2 years, it will cost him a lot, and if he ends up being a top 6 C, it will cost the Flames $7-8M/year to renew, with the overall cost of the contracts ending up much higher. I like bridge deals when you don't know what you've got, but I think the Flames have a pretty good idea in this case.

I think it's much more likely that Bennett will be the one avoiding signing a long-term contract, because he (and likely the Flames management, as well) probably believes that he will make great strides in the next two years, garnering a much more lucrative deal next time he signs. In reality, a bridge deal will likely provide much more benefit for the player than for the team.

Just to throw some numbers out to illustrate, say he signs for 2 X 2.5, then the next contract is (for a very conservative estimate, considering typical annual salary escalation) 6 X 6, that's a total of 41M. All of a sudden, 32M doesn't look all that bad.

I honestly think Bennett will in the long run be better than Backlund (who also took a bit more time to develop, but is somewhat less offensively skilled). Who here would complain if we signed Backlund for 4M per year?

[the_only_turek_fan]

Originally Posted by CSharp

All I have to say is why couldn't the Flames can't tank properly get Draisaitl instead.

Sigh. Most people on this board were worried we were going to get "stuck" with Draisaitl. Bennett was clearly the better prospect st the time.

[OzSome]

Originally Posted by CSharp

All I have to say is why couldn't the Flames can't tank properly get Draisaitl instead.

Probably you are one of the people who laughed at the Oilers picking Draisatl ahead of Bennett. I have to admit I was guilty and I still feel Calgary got lucky to get the chance to draft Sam Bennett. Draisatl only had one good season so far and he had to thank McDavid on his success. I know he wasn't playing with McDavid but the other team usually focus in stopping McDavid most of the game. The league now knows what Draisatl are capable so we'll see if he can repeat. Sam Bennett, on the other hand still hasn't reach his potential and next season might be his breakout season.
I'll say $2M - $3M for 3 years.