2020 NFL Playoff Thread

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Cheese

I dunno, I miss the Patriots in the playoffs, how about you guys?

Maybe the old teams when they actually had good offensive guys. The team this year just sucks and is super boring to watch.

[Cheese]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

Maybe the old teams when they actually had good offensive guys. The team this year just sucks and is super boring to watch.

Yeah, that will be next year I'm sure! Reload!

[TheIronMaiden]

After going 3/4 last weekend.

I put 5 bucks on GB and Tennessee to make to super bowl.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Cheese

I dunno, I miss the Patriots in the playoffs, how about you guys?

A good villian does make for a more entertaining movie.

But I'd rather them be defeated in the first act, then win it all again.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Cheese

I dunno, I miss the Patriots in the playoffs, how about you guys?

I would be happy if they missed the playoffs for the next five years, so that I can check up on all the guys who have been cheering for the patriots - 'for like a decade' and see if they have jumped onto another band wagon.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Lots of talk today about O'Brein's decisions on 4th down. Personally I didn't have an issue with either at the time. On 4th and 1, they were up 21-0 and everything going their way. A gimme FG and you keep the pressure on. A 4th down stop gives the Chiefs renewed life. So at the time, I liked the FG.

The fake punt. The Chiefs had just scored a TD as if your defense wasn't even on the field. As the coach, you had to be very uneasy about how easily they scored. Then you go 3 and out, and you start to feel you're losing control of the game. But as usual, the Texans can't execute.

The first one is indefensible. The difference between 21 and 24 is three two point conversions, so it's still a three score game even if its unlikely Reid starts going for two that early (even if he should). 28-0 is four scores and another TD is more psychologically damaging. And you're playing the greatest offense around and it's not like Houston was delivering a defense masterpiece, the Chiefs were beating themselves with drops. You had to figure they would pick it up, so you need to score as many points as you can. And it's fourth and one and you have a mobile QB. Also can't ignore he burned a timeout to kick the FG instead of going for it, a time out that would have been greatly beneficial as they chased a FG late in the half. Plus if the concern is "well if they get a stop, they have renewed life..."

...why try a significantly lower percentage risk in the fake punt that gives even more life than a stop on fourth and one? A stop on fourth and one in the red zone and they have to go 80+ yards. Botch the fake punt and it's a 30 yard field. It's funny because in the abstract I mostly like the fake punt. Sorensen deserves the game ball for making a fantastic play to stop it (and forcing the fumble on the kickoff). It's just the logical idiocy of passing on an 90/10 risk with low downside and then following it up by taking a risk that is, being as generous as possible, 50/50 with extremely high downside. I think he just panicked in both situations and went with his gut rather than the logic.

In the end though I agree those calls were not that important. The Texans got their asses kicked the last 40 minutes of that game, the pass rush in particular made it easy as pie for Mahomes. But those decisions were still poor and contributed to what turned out to be a very easy win for the Chiefs. With Watson's rookie deal almost done it makes no sense to stick with the very mediocre O'Brien, but as you note the Texans issues are organizational dysfunction and perhaps firing O'Brien won't change much.

[Strange Brew]

They were different situations and to me, made sense in the flow of the game. And I don’t agree that the first one was 90% success probability and second one was 50/50.

[Senator Clay Davis]

It's fourth and one with a mobile QB. The Ravens were 100% at that until Saturday when they decided their elite mobile QB should try QB sneaks instead of edge rushes. Watson is a pretty good runner I'd say. Either way the logical inconsistency obviously suggests panicked thinking. And I didn't think the second one was 50/50, I said being generous it was 50/50. Despite Tyreek's muff the Chiefs special teams were elite this year and it was four yards to gain. I'd peg it more at 20/80 if the Chiefs were ready, which they were.

[Erick Estrada]

IMO it's poor situational coaching. The thing about going for it on 4th and 1 at the 13 is that even if you don't make it the Chiefs are pinned deep in a game they hadn't moved the ball offensively up to that point. You leave your defense to defend a long field in hopes of getting them to punt and it's a 3 score game with or without the FG. If they get the 1st down and turn it into 7 points you can argue a 28 point deficit may be enough to demoralize the Chiefs. To go conservative and take the 3 points in that situation is one thing but to on the next series go for a fake punt on 4th and 3 yards at your 30 yard line screams of full blown panic going from conservative to high risk in the span of two offensive series. It didn't help that the player on the fake punt with only one man to beat didn't even try to make a move or take the angle to the sideline. A panic call led to a poorly executed gamble and after that it was game over as you could tell the Texans were deflated while the Chiefs just started to roll.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

It's fourth and one with a mobile QB. The Ravens were 100% at that until Saturday when they decided their elite mobile QB should try QB sneaks instead of edge rushes. Watson is a pretty good runner I'd say. Either way the logical inconsistency obviously suggests panicked thinking. And I didn't think the second one was 50/50, I said being generous it was 50/50. Despite Tyreek's muff the Chiefs special teams were elite this year and it was four yards to gain. I'd peg it more at 20/80 if the Chiefs were ready, which they were.

Taking the Field goal wasn't the worst thing, but going for the fake punt that far in your own territory with a 17 point lead at that time of the game was odd. Especially since it was 4 yards that they needed for a first down. In the case of the Texans...they might not trust their defence. But they should have trusted that their offence could still hold a 10 point lead for when they got the ball next in a worst case. But before they got another chance...the 17 points was down to 3, and it was a different game.

[Senator Clay Davis]

EE mentioned it, but situational football. You are playing the Chiefs who are, let's face it, the NFL equivalent of the Warriors. This was the second time this season Mahomes had 4TDs in a quarter, and he didn't even need the whole quarter. If you're playing the Ravens or Titans, teams who win with running I can be more forgiving, but it's the Chiefs. Mahomes was basically flawless after that, and when he's flawless it's pretty much the greatest offense ever even with (especially?) no running game.

Settling for FGs needs to be only when you have to, and fourth and one ain't that. You gotta take the chance you can score a TD. If it's fourth and eight it's a little different, but fourth and one you gotta believe you can get that.

[The Big Chill]

I was fine with the decision to take the 3 points at 21-0, but it's ridiculous that the reasoning is he didn't have a good play.

The fake punt is inexcusable. You have to think of the risk vs reward in these situations, and the risk was enormous with little payoff. Even if we convert that, we only have the ball at our own 40 or so, far from automatically putting points on the board. The risk was a complete reversal of momentum. Giving them a short field after just having scored on a short field is pure stupidity.

[Senator Clay Davis]

The wasted timeout is so bad on the fourth and one. If anything take the penalty and save the timeout. If you trust your kicker to make a 33 yarder, but not a 38 yarder....yeah. And had they saved the timeout they might have squeezed a FG out of it at the end of the half. Whole sequence was some of the worst coaching we'll see.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

They were different situations and to me, made sense in the flow of the game. And I don’t agree that the first one was 90% success probability and second one was 50/50.

"Flow of the game" is nonsense, IMO, and coaches who play to something like that instead of what the odds/analytics say are going to start frequently finding themselves on the losing end in games against coaches who do apply analytics.

I think there's ample evidence that shows that O’Brien might be an okay playcaller, but he's a lousy head coach.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by rubecube

"Flow of the game" is nonsense, IMO, and coaches who play to something like that instead of what the odds/analytics say are going to start frequently finding themselves on the losing end in games against coaches who do apply analytics.

I think there's ample evidence that shows that O’Brien might be an okay playcaller, but he's a lousy head coach/GM.

I corrected your post seeing it appears he's going to be the GM for another season. I'm beginning to wonder if O'Brien has something on McNair as I don't understand why the owner still thinks this man can do no wrong after days like yesterday.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Cheese

I dunno, I miss the Patriots in the playoffs, how about you guys?

In their last 9 games played

NE 4-5

MIA 5-4

No....dont miss the Pats one bit.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Do Pats fans actually thinking watching Brady dink and dunk his way down the field with shallow crosses and screen passes is actually exciting? Efficient no doubt, but also boring as ####. Watching Mahomes is miles more entertaining.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Do Pats fans actually thinking watching Brady dink and dunk his way down the field with shallow crosses and screen passes is actually exciting? Efficient no doubt, but also boring as ####. Watching Mahomes is miles more entertaining.

Yards per catch, 2018, 2019:

Mahomes = 13.3, 12.6
Brady = 11.6, 10.9

Tom Brady Really Is Getting Old [Jan. 2019]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...is-getting-old

Completed air yards and intended air yards measure the down-the-field distance of the average pass attempt and pass completion. Brady's average attempt travels 7.6 yards downfield, which ranks 24th in the NFL. His average completion travels just 5.6 yards, which ranks 23rd.

Getting old yes, but also lacking deep weapons and good protection?

[Senator Clay Davis]

The design of the Pats offense isn't to stretch the field though. It's pretty boring to watch dumpoffs to the backs and slants and crosses to Edelman/Welker/Gronk/Hernandez, but it obviously works very well. The Pats when they had Moss had a more down the field offense, but it's always been about efficiently moving the ball rather than quick strike offense.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Lost in all the playoff talk is Antonio Brown being unhinged.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1216743623896829954