Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Perhaps, but if you factor contract value and age it's pretty tough to argue against Makar.

5x9M vs. 4x12.5M vs. 2x11.64M


MacKinnon 1x6.3M and then say 8x12M would be a closer call.

How about McKinnon for 1year at $6.3M and then lose home as a UFA?

With current contracts being at issue , Makar becomes quite an attractive choice.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

How about McKinnon for 1year at $6.3M and then lose home as a UFA?

With current contracts being at issue , Makar becomes quite an attractive choice.

We're probably 5-6 weeks away from knowing MacKinnon's extension contract. For this absolute top tier of player it's pretty much a no-brainer to fill in the blank cheque a full year early as your value has no where to go but down.

If you desperately wanted to change cities you don't have to take the risk of waiting a year to do it as a UFA - tell the team you're not re-signing/demand a trade (same thing really).


Tougher to value are 2-3 years remaining, though in each of these cases it probably has as much to do with the teams as the players:

Aho - went to an offer sheet at the first opportunity after 365 days where CAR could have extended him...

Matthews - he didn't leave a penny on the table last time and he could be the most legit threat to seek a max deal given his age

Draisaitl - I expect McDavid will be long gone by then, but either way it's a weird nut to crack. In a vaccuum you'd love him for 3 years at that number and then pay whatever, but it's a bit harder to disentangle him from that dumpster-fire.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

We're probably 5-6 weeks away from knowing MacKinnon's extension contract. For this absolute top tier of player it's pretty much a no-brainer to fill in the blank cheque a full year early as your value has no where to go but down.

If you desperately wanted to change cities you don't have to take the risk of waiting a year to do it as a UFA - tell the team you're not re-signing/demand a trade (same thing really).


Tougher to value are 2-3 years remaining, though in each of these cases it probably has as much to do with the teams as the players:

Aho - went to an offer sheet at the first opportunity after 365 days where CAR could have extended him...

Matthews - he didn't leave a penny on the table last time and he could be the most legit threat to seek a max deal given his age

Draisaitl - I expect McDavid will be long gone by then, but either way it's a weird nut to crack. In a vaccuum you'd love him for 3 years at that number and then pay whatever, but it's a bit harder to disentangle him from that dumpster-fire.

The premise was drafting the player you want to start your team with, with his existing Contract.

So, McKinnon is not on Colorado..

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

The premise was drafting the player you want to start your team with, with his existing Contract.

So, McKinnon is not on Colorado..

Right, but a month from now he'll be under contract for the next 9 years, with 1 at exceptional value.

But if you want to say I have to draft him tonight and can't be certain about his next deal then there are 3 scenarios to weigh:
A. He signs 8x11-12M
B. He signs ~8x13-14M
C. He doesn't want to sign and you trade him for a Lindrosian haul.

With Scenario B it's a tough call - Barkov/Point are better bang for your buck over the longterm, but not quite as good overall and you don't get 1 exceptional value year. Or just 4 years of McDavid. More of a toss-up.

Scenario C is obviously adding layers upon layers of fantasy, but you're not coming away empty handed.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Right, but a month from now he'll be under contract for the next 9 years, with 1 at exceptional value.

But if you want to say I have to draft him tonight and can't be certain about his next deal then there are 3 scenarios to weigh:
A. He signs 8x11-12M
B. He signs ~8x13-14M
C. He doesn't want to sign and you trade him for a Lindrosian haul.

With Scenario B it's a tough call - Barkov/Point are better bang for your buck over the longterm, but not quite as good overall and you don't get 1 exceptional value year. Or just 4 years of McDavid. More of a toss-up.

Scenario C is obviously adding layers upon layers of fantasy, but you're not coming away empty handed.

If in this scenario McKinnon won’t sign an extension with anyone, you won’t get an Lindrosian return, he’s a one year rental. He certainly wouldn’t be worth Makar.

[tkflames]

Has there been any real insider info on this? I.e. any confirmation that an offer has been sent etc.?

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by tkflames

Has there been any real insider info on this? I.e. any confirmation that an offer has been sent etc.?

No.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

If in this scenario McKinnon won’t sign an extension with anyone, you won’t get an Lindrosian return, he’s a one year rental. He certainly wouldn’t be worth Makar.

Presumably MacKinnon would sign an extension with someone, just not you. A team isn't trading for him without negotiating an extension, and it would be a ludicrous gamble for a player to wait a year to sign a ~$100M deal.


I agree with the bolded...I'm the one who kicked this off by saying Makar's a no-brainer #1. It's a lot tougher to rank #2-10, but factoring all possibilities related to MacKinnon I think he's still #2 (as you have to apply those factors to other guys, too).

Those re-sign/trade issues exist to varying degrees with McDavid/Matthews/Draisaitl/Aho/Shesterkin.

Barkov/Point/Fox/Heiskanen/Hughes/Vasilevskiy give you more certainty and better value, but they're a tier below the M's. Goalies are voodoo, but I'd have to think long and hard about Vasi.

Hedman/Josi/Crosby are also somewhere in the discussion.

[chedder]

So McKinnon is in the same spot as Johnny was a year ago. It will be interestig to see what transpires. Granted, Denver's a more sought after destination, McKinnon is a bigger fish playing a more important position and younger. I don't see the Avs letting him March to free agency.

[kukkudo]

Originally Posted by chedder

So McKinnon is in the same spot as Johnny was a year ago. It will be interestig to see what transpires. Granted, Denver's a more sought after destination, McKinnon is a bigger fish playing a more important position and younger. I don't see the Avs letting him March to free agency.

Crazy part is if they win the cup this year he can command whatever he wants.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by kukkudo

Crazy part is if they win the cup this year he can command whatever he wants.

He can already do that whether they win or lose.

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[kukkudo]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

He can already do that whether they win or lose.

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Oh for sure, just think adding a cup ring can add another couple million in his pocket per year.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by chedder

So McKinnon is in the same spot as Johnny was a year ago. It will be interestig to see what transpires. Granted, Denver's a more sought after destination, McKinnon is a bigger fish playing a more important position and younger. I don't see the Avs letting him March to free agency.

It is not the same, though. This time last season Gaudreau was coming off of a disappointing year: the Flames were reluctant to make a long-term commitment at the price Gaudreau wanted, and he was not going to undersell himself after a bad season.

MacKinnon is already a proven commodity. He has consistently been one of the League's most dominant players for a few years now, and has also been one of the best players in the post season. MacKinnon is currently in a position to sign the largest contract in NHL history, even before playing a game in the SCF. Gaudreau has never been anywhere close to that.

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[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by kukkudo

Oh for sure, just think adding a cup ring can add another couple million in his pocket per year.

Maybe. I think he is going to get the 8 year/100m deal like McDavid signed a few years ago.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by kukkudo

Oh for sure, just think adding a cup ring can add another couple million in his pocket per year.

He is already in a position to become the highest paid player in the NHL. I seriously doubt that a Cup win at this point makes any difference at all to his salary.

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[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by chedder

So McKinnon is in the same spot as Johnny was a year ago. It will be interestig to see what transpires. Granted, Denver's a more sought after destination, McKinnon is a bigger fish playing a more important position and younger. I don't see the Avs letting him March to free agency.

He's not coming off two lacklustre seasons like Johnny was...

MacKinnon has five straight years of 99+ pt pace; four of those years were 107+. 58pts in his last 39 playoffs games.

A nice thing for COL is that Makar and Rantanen (and Landeskog) are on fairly low AAVs, and MacKinnon might be reluctant to blow those out of the water. I wouldn't be surprised if he signs 8x11.25 ($90M). Or maybe he wants $92M to mirror his jersey number and match Karlsson for 2nd biggest 8 yr deal.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

He's not coming off two lacklustre seasons like Johnny was...

MacKinnon has five straight years of 99+ pt pace; four of those years were 107+. 58pts in his last 39 playoffs games.

A nice thing for COL is that Makar and Rantanen (and Landeskog) are on fairly low AAVs, and MacKinnon might be reluctant to blow those out of the water. I wouldn't be surprised if he signs 8x11.25 ($90M). Or maybe he wants $92M to mirror his jersey number and match Karlsson for 2nd biggest 8 yr deal.

I would be surprised if MacKinnon signs for less than McDavid. He has been one of the lowest paid players for what he produces for several years running, and is a top-three player in the League. He will be 28-years-old when his next contract begins. He needs to ensure that it is the best deal he can get.

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[Remember1989]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I would be surprised if MacKinnon signs for less than McDavid. He has been one of the lowest paid players for what he produces for several years running, and is a top-three player in the League. He will be 28-years-old when his next contract begins. He needs to ensure that it is the best deal he can get.

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I think you might have to prepare to be surprised as he’s said he will take less on his next contract to be a perennial winner. I have heard this refrain from him since the below Score article from 2019. Will a ring change things? I doubt it - he wants to dominate and win.

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/1854849

[chedder]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

It is not the same, though. This time last season Gaudreau was coming off of a disappointing year: the Flames were reluctant to make a long-term commitment at the price Gaudreau wanted, and he was not going to undersell himself after a bad season.

MacKinnon is already a proven commodity. He has consistently been one of the League's most dominant players for a few years now, and has also been one of the best players in the post season. MacKinnon is currently in a position to sign the largest contract in NHL history, even before playing a game in the SCF. Gaudreau has never been anywhere close to that.

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Agree he is on another level and they are very different players. But the comparison still stands. Johnny is career 1.01 points per game. Mckinnon is 1.01 points per game. Johnny has actually proven to be more durable (likely style of play)

My point is more that there will be no uncertainty and McKinnon will be signed before next season starts.

Maybe we'll sign Johnny and all will be well. Or maybe we'll all be wondering why our GM couldn't get the player signed before it came to the last minute with the risk of player walking away for nothing.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by chedder

Agree he is on another level and they are very different players.

If they are "very different players" who are on different levels, then no, the comparison you are making between MacKinnon and Gaudreau does not work. It doesn't work because MacKinnon is already arguably the best player in the world who can command pretty much whatever he wants on his next contract. Gaudreau was never in a position to do that.

Maybe we'll sign Johnny and all will be well. Or maybe we'll all be wondering why our GM couldn't get the player signed before it came to the last minute with the risk of player walking away for nothing.

There is no mystery at all here. Treliving did not get Gaudreau under contract because 1) the Flames rightfully uncertain and cautious about his long-term performance on the basis of his most recent results and 2) Gaudreau was not willing to sign a long-term deal after two straight seasons in which he felt he had underperformed.

Again, this situation with MacKinnon is NOTHING at all like where Gaudreau and the Flames were at last year. The only similarity is that both were/will be eligible to sign extensions.


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