[PGT] 2 big bedard points

[Kasi]

No I think he’s not shown adjustments this year and just is trying to get players to buy in to his style. Sorry just with Cali and others here. I don’t see any creativity and I see players afraid to make mistakes. To their credit they are trying and working hard for the most part. I just don’t think this roster is a good fit for the style he wants this team to be. Anyway can just agree to disagree. And the appeal to authority doesn’t work for me either. There is one constant in sports it’s that all coaches have an expiry date. Not saying that’s the case here (I am not calling for firing him) but saying he won two cups in the past isn’t something I care much about.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

It has to improve for sure, but it's not as simple as you think.

I had a conversation with the guy that runs naturalstattrick last week when I saw an Edmonton game that had them down in every single count ...

Shots
Shot attempts
Scoring Chances
High Danger Chances

But up on xGF%.

He explained that every high danger chance is weighted by how it occurred and where it was on the ice. So you can have less high danger chances, less shot attempts, less shots, but more expected goals because you had had "bigger" chances inside the high danger category.

Last night the Flames ran the table on all the counts, but also on expected.

While I agree the stats can and will improve, it would be pretty hard to make the case that they didn't dominate in almost every single fashion.

This really is excellent and I have no qualms with it whatsoever. I assume in this case you have one observer who is making these observations during the course of the game and then sums it up at the end.

It's an eye test (with some parameters) but with a piece of paper nearby so that you add up your individual observations. Frankly that is the best way to do it IMO. So then what you are left with:

Who had the most chances, weighted for quality using the method you describe?
How did the goalie play?
How effective were shooters with burying chances?

I'm not sure how I'd even weight these in priority.

Last night, Montreal carried 2 and 3 and that's why they won.

[butterfly]

If it was the Canadiens who had the 45 shots and all the chances, and the Flames lost 2-1, very few people would be blaming goaltending.

The game had barely started and Markstrom came out of net wildly sliding like he was trying to steal second base. Except it's not baseball. Then he went after some Montreal player, Mangiapane comes in to defend him, and gets thrown in the box.

I don't blame Markstrom for letting in the Suzuki-Caufield goal, beautiful play from some talented players. They have done the same thing against other teams. But Markstrom was responsible for letting them on the power play to begin with.

Seems as though the more people talk about Phillips and Vladar, the more we keep getting Lucic and Markstrom.

[flamesgod]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

That's my point. Sutter led team's consistently win the analytical battle but underperform their expected results. This is not new, and is a result of the system. Just four times during his 20 NHL seasons as a head coach has his team been in the top half of NHL scoring, and two of those occurrences came during shortened 48 game seasons.

Top players seeing a dramatic decrease in point production is not new under Sutter, either.

Kopitar went from a 52 point season to a 92 point season the season after Darryl left.
Iginla went from an Art Ross trophy to three consecutive 70 point years under Darryl, and then immediately returned to a 95+ point guy the two seasons following his departure.
Selanne was a 60ish point guy under Sutter, and less than two years later had multiple 90 point years in Anaheim.
Dustin Brown's offensive results completely tanked under Sutter, only to rebound immediately after his departure.

I don't think he has ever shown the ability to get the most offensively out of his top players outside of last year - which indeed makes it an outlier and masked alot of issues this team is currently having. I think he's a fantastic coach but the game may have changed too much for what he's trying to implement today. We shall see if he can turn this season around. I certainly hope so.

That’s nice. How many cups did those LA guys win after he left?

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by charcoalbg

I think they should mimic Huby's linemates like in Florida using Kadri as the Sam Bennett role and maybe Dube as the Duclair role where both Kadri and Dube can attack north south with speed and tenacity which should open Huberdeau with some space for him to operate. The cycle chip game is not working for Kadri / Huby as evident. They need to attack on the rush with quick transition.

Move Mangiapane back to Backlund / Coleman since that worked last year and keep Ruzicka with Lindholm / Toffoli since that was working too.

I don't think they are incapable of generating offense from the rush quick transition and cycle game as evident last year they can do both effectively.

Also is Weegar playing more safe than last year with less offensive zone entries ? Sorry, didnt watch his game much in Florida.

Yes, but not a whole lot. The fact remains that the Florida system was very fluid with lots of rushes after turning pucks over. Weegar was great at turning pucks over and making first passes up ice to spring a guy for an odd-man rush. He didn't necessarily rush the puck himself that often, so it's not that different here.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by flamesgod

That’s nice. How many cups did those LA guys win after he left?

They became a bottom feeder

[flamesgod]

Originally Posted by dino7c

They became a bottom feeder

Darryl was just the coach of one of the most productive lines this organization has ever had. Yet he’s the reason our goals for are down. Silly. His system requires an understanding of it as a player. Once mastered, it creates a lot of offence based on getting the puck back and transitioning up the ice quickly. I’m being patient with these guys because it takes time to get a hold of being good defensively while also remembering you can still be very productive in the o zone. He doesn’t stifle creativity, he just demands intelligence and responsibility. If they can’t figure it out, we’ll be a middle of the pack team. If they do, we’ll be a top tier team.


I’m not disagreeing with you dino I’m just expanding my thoughts.

[camm13]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I think you absolutely nailed it with this. Coach Sutter has told us numerous times that he thinks it's a 3-2 league and he's VERY clearly coaching them with this assumption in mind. But the stats show that it's a 4-3 + league now, and we need more offensive firepower to keep up.

It'd be a 3-2 league... if Markstrom wasn't gifting goals every game.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Kasi

No I think he’s not shown adjustments this year and just is trying to get players to buy in to his style. Sorry just with Cali and others here. I don’t see any creativity and I see players afraid to make mistakes. To their credit they are trying and working hard for the most part. I just don’t think this roster is a good fit for the style he wants this team to be. Anyway can just agree to disagree. And the appeal to authority doesn’t work for me either. There is one constant in sports it’s that all coaches have an expiry date. Not saying that’s the case here (I am not calling for firing him) but saying he won two cups in the past isn’t something I care much about.

Never a fan of the appeal to authority comment ...

I'm not saying every NHL coach's move has to be taken as correct against all opinions. I'm saying Sutter has a track record including a very recent one where he took a Flames team he inherited and needed 4 months to get them playing on the same page, of turning teams around.

I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for sure, especially from someone suggesting their eye test is somehow more valid than actual stats.

[Kasi]

I just don’t take “he’s won 2 cups” as a defence of anything. There are tons of coaches across all sports that have lost their ability to do their job effectively. The usual points this happens on are either outdated styles/schemes or inability to connect/influence their players. So to me saying he won two cups so he must be right well doesn’t work. And to be honest I wonder how much the players care either. And regardless of that at the end of the day the coach is always more replaceable than the players so if there is a mismatch the coach always loses. Anyway rooting for them of course to turn it around but right now doesn’t seem hopeful.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Kasi

I just don’t take “he’s won 2 cups” as a defence of anything. There are tons of coaches across all sports that have lost their ability to do their job effectively. The usual points this happens on are either outdated styles/schemes or inability to connect/influence their players. So to me saying he won two cups so he must be right well doesn’t work. And to be honest I wonder how much the players care either. And regardless of that at the end of the day the coach is always more replaceable than the players so if there is a mismatch the coach always loses. Anyway rooting for them of course to turn it around but right now doesn’t seem hopeful.

OK ignore the cups.

What about winning the division last year and completely turning things around in Calgary after taking over a lackluster team.

That buys patience from me with all the off season change to the roster.

So I'm to just drop that faith in a guy with a track record and go with what you're seeing as right? Seriously that's the plan?

Not sure I'm there yet! I'm still with the guy with the track record and actual stats over your peepers.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

In terms of actual goal differential the flames treaded water without the top line on the ice.

Sutter's track record speaks for itself in terms of his team's ability to produce offense and last year is the outlier due to the top line. In my opinion it is an outdated approach to try and win 3-2 consistently. The league is as skilled and offensive as it's ever been and when your goaltenders struggle - this is the result.

last year was the 35th highest gpg ever.

This year is slightly higher, ranking 33rd ever.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by transplant99

last year was the 35th highest gpg ever.

This year is slightly higher, ranking 33rd ever.

Goaltending is also the best it has ever been. Guys who are third stringers now would be vezina frontrunners in the 80s. Not to mention that the best offensive players still face strong systems play and fit opponents. Not a binch of guys having cigarette breaks between periods who think a left wing lock is the name of a wrestling move.

The offensive skill is definitely the best it's ever been. Even if the CHL is a higher scoring league.

Originally Posted by Bingo

OK ignore the cups.

What about winning the division last year and completely turning things around in Calgary after taking over a lackluster team.

With due respect, Bill Peters had done the same, with a worse roster and worse goaltender. The miserable Geoff Ward years were the outliers, as the guy simply was not an NHL coach. I'm not advocating Sutter be fired but he is not above criticism.

[Kasi]

Also how can I really show faith in him (not that it matters) when the two best players from last year didn’t? It’s not like both weren’t eager to get out of here despite all they’d achieved with Sutter. Career best years and all. And Tkachuk has hardly been shy with speaking of his differences with Sutter. To me last year was a product of a top line that no longer exists. It’s not like his results with the rest of the roster were impressive.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

With due respect, Bill Peters had done the same, with a worse roster and worse goaltender. The miserable Geoff Ward years were the outliers, as the guy simply was not an NHL coach. I'm not advocating Sutter be fired but he is not above criticism.

Have never said he's above criticism.

In fact I posted a graph showing him underusing his top forwards as a huge concern.

But I'm not going to ignore his track record and go with the "eye test" of someone that has figured it out, and thinks all that stats that prove otherwise are wrong.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Kasi

Also how can I really show faith in him (not that it matters) when the two best players from last year didn’t? It’s not like both weren’t eager to get out of here despite all they’d achieved with Sutter. Career best years and all. And Tkachuk has hardly been shy with speaking of his differences with Sutter. To me last year was a product of a top line that no longer exists. It’s not like his results with the rest of the roster were impressive.

He got them both very well paid!

And Tkachuk put his exit in progress before Sutter was named coach.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Kasi

Last year he was willing to let the Gaudreau line play a different style because while it was not dump and chase it did a very good job of puck control and limiting chances again. No one in the team is getting that same leeway this year. And has shown above the team was absolutely reliant on that since the other three lines were dead neutral in goal differential.

Originally Posted by Bingo

So Sutter, a veteran coach with two rings, has changed his coaching style from last season after putting up 102 points?

And you know this how?

Don't confuse a lack of being able to beat defenders on the rush with a coach insisting they dump it in.

My guess is he's insistent on defensive zone coverage, break out patterns, and turnover regions (grey zone), but once set up the offence is up to the players in how they manage it.

And guessing that was the case with the big line last year, and all the lines this year.

They talked about it on HNIC, Bieksa specifically, and he discussed what they were doing differently. The others agreed with his assessment.

Doesn't make it a fact, obviously. But I was in full agreement with what Bieksa was saying, personally.

And it certainly jives with what we are watching every night.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

They talked about it on HNIC, Bieksa specifically, and he discussed what they were doing differently. The others agreed with his assessment.

Doesn't make it a fact, obviously. But I was in full agreement with what Bieksa was saying, personally.

And it certainly jives with what we are watching every night.

I just think it's different players.

Tkachuk came up with that blind pass hard on the angle up the ice break out.

Can't see that being a Sutter strategy, he's still doing it now. But the player is gone and the new lines haven't found a way to each other yet.

If he's changed it's because he sees a sag in skill and feels they have to give up less.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I just think it's different players.

Tkachuk came up with that blind pass hard on the angle up the ice break out.

Can't see that being a Sutter strategy, he's still doing it now. But the player is gone and the new lines haven't found a way to each other yet.

If he's changed it's because he sees a sag in skill and feels they have to give up less.

I think it's pretty hard to make the case that there is a sag in skill with Huberdeau. Same centerman. And Toffoli has earned his trust.

There is no question that Sutter is asking them to play a north south game - Huberdeau has talked about it. We can see it.

The top line had freedom to play east-west last year. These guys don't. IT's pretty clear to see.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by Bingo

He got them both very well paid!

And Tkachuk put his exit in progress before Sutter was named coach.

I don’t think negotiating your RFA years like this is a sign of exit that you think it is. It’s just a new reality in the league for star players who want to get that max FA contract. Instead of going to UFA and getting that big contract they can get a big short term RFA contract and then an even bigger UFA contract. I just think Tkachuk had a mix of not liking the franchise/coach which made him open to leaving.