Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Plus aren't all the older or ultra conservatives leaving the country because of Trudeau and such.

I would argue that many of the new Canadians immigrating to Alberta hold socially conservative values. I wouldn't be surprised if the UCPs stance on LGBTQ popular in that demographic.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Plus aren't all the older or ultra conservatives leaving the country because of Trudeau and such.

No, they just yap about it all day long to anyone who will listen.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

I disagree with that. They performed admirably last election with no vote split, with the same leader as before, and didn't lose Calgary seats by all that much. They basically captured the two big city vote, a resounding accomplishment on its own.

In 2027, the province is also going to be more full of young progressives who are arriving in droves for better house prices.

The NDP is a much stronger party today than they were in 2016. Anyone who doesn't believe that isn't paying attention.

It finished 49-38 seats. NDP need to flip 6 seats (while not losing any) to win. They lost the following by this much:

YYC North - 129 votes
YYC NW - 143
YYC Cross - 514
YYC Bow - 623
Lethbridge East - 636
YYC East - 698

Four of these ridings had below avg turnout. So it's not even a matter of changing votes as much as getting people who couldn't be arsed to actually come out. Or even just for a few hundred people to go from 'I vote blue by default' to change to 'I don't like either option and won't vote'

The NDP also won 6 ridings by less than 700 votes (5 in Calgary + Banff riding) so they have to work hard to keep those.

I'm not sure why people bother talking about whether rural folk will tolerate Nenshi or not. It doesn't matter. And it actually isn't nearly as insurmountable as it may seem. But there is very very little margin for error.

[belsarius]

I looked at the last 3 elections and the votes not based on vote share, but also based on total population.

Turnout was similar in 2015 and 2023 (high 50s) but almost 10% higher in 2019.. there was a lot of people who got out to vote to get rid of the NDP.

By % population:

In 2015 the NDP had 23% of the population vote for them, the Wildrose/PC had 30%. NDP won because of the vote split, no real argument there.

In 2019 the NDP had 22% of the population, maintaining their base, but the UCP jumped to 37%. With the higher voter turnout, pretty much all new voters, voted UCP, and without a split the election was easy.

In 2023 we saw a shift. NDP grabbed 27% of the population, UCP dropped to 32%. We also saw a vote turnout drop 10%. The popular vote share for the UCP stayed at 55%, but they lost all the support from people staying home with their share of the population dropping. They lost 100,000 votes and the NDP gained 150,000.

I think it is fair to say that in the last election we saw the NDP strengthen (anti UCP strengthen) and more people decided to not vote at all... "I don't like the UCP, but I ain't voting Orange."

Nenshi is trying to come in and push those 10% back into the polls for the NDP, his job is to grab those people that Rachel couldn't get, not to swing UCP voters to the NDP, but to get the fence sitters to show up for his team. It isn't going to be easy, but the last election had a % of population swing 5% from the UCP to the NDP. If he can manage the same growth that the NDP had from 2019 to 2023, then I think he can manage to pull it out.

[curves2000]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

It finished 49-38 seats. NDP need to flip 6 seats (while not losing any) to win. They lost the following by this much:

YYC North - 129 votes
YYC NW - 143
YYC Cross - 514
YYC Bow - 623
Lethbridge East - 636
YYC East - 698

Four of these ridings had below avg turnout. So it's not even a matter of changing votes as much as getting people who couldn't be arsed to actually come out. Or even just for a few hundred people to go from 'I vote blue by default' to change to 'I don't like either option and won't vote'

The NDP also won 6 ridings by less than 700 votes (5 in Calgary + Banff riding) so they have to work hard to keep those.

I'm not sure why people bother talking about whether rural folk will tolerate Nenshi or not. It doesn't matter. And it actually isn't nearly as insurmountable as it may seem. But there is very very little margin for error.

As someone who isn't an NDP voter, I keep talking about a path forward for the NDP and Nenshi not having strong rural support. He could get it but a lot of NDP voters are dreaming of long term NDP change via a few additional seats in Calgary to win. That is a very risky strategy cause it can turn quickly with as you said, very low margin of error.

You always want broad based support and representation as it gives you a better on the ground sense of what is happening. The UCP can get away with rural and Calgary support and lose Edmonton voters but the NDP can't get away with winning Calgary/Edmonton and not much else and hope to govern long term.

If we look at the federal scene, it appears the Conservatives have woken up and are starting to attract voters in large cities Toronto/Montreal/Vancouver. You can't expect to form government if you don't win in large cities on the federal scene. Just relying on a single group or demographic is the hockey equivalent of trying to win with 1 or 2 lines as opposed to winning with all 4 lines.

[surferguy]

I want the NDP to win and hold for a while to fix a lot of the ideological bull#### the UCP have shoved down our throats. That said if the NDP were to win and only hold one term then my hope is that it gives the UCP a chance to shed the loonies and become a respectable party again.

Nenshi IMO will be respected in the cities, I feel he will be open to giving the cities their own charters which was a big thing he fought for while mayor and couldn’t get done. If he is in the captains chair this will probably be a big part of his tenure.

The way to winning rural folks is to show that he will curb stupid spending and put in back into education and health. People do not want to travel to get to a hospital/find a family doctor. People want their small schools to stay open in their small towns.

The current path is jeopardizing those things. Nenshi is no fool - I think he will have the ability to convey his ideas in an intelligent matter while eviscerating the UCP by pointing out their very visible warts.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

In 2027, the province is also going to be more full of young progressives who are arriving in droves for better house prices.

Young adults have been flooding into Alberta from other provinces since the 70s. Wave after wave of them. That’s why we’re the youngest province in the country and have been since at least the 90s. Conservative parties have still won every provincial election but one in the last 60 years. So historically, young Canadians moving here from elsewhere doesn’t seem to change the political calculus.

And the federal Conservatives top the polls among 18-44 year old Canadians. I wouldn’t count on demographics turning the tide for the NDP. It’ll come down to political campaigning - a platform, a ground game, and persuasion.

[curves2000]

Slightly off topic, but I have always found people who move to Alberta take more of the local politics and culture more so than in other provinces. I was born and raised here but you hear people from other places talking about learning and quoting energy prices, becoming more conservative in some more traditional ways like marriage.

I can't speak as an outsider but people have talked about the pressure of marrying an Albertan or dating in Alberta as a little different then say Toronto. More of the people here want to get actually married, couples are younger and romantically linked younger then what they are used to. Incomes are higher so younger people progress in their life quicker etc. People kinda become more Albertan then they think even though they don't really identify as conservative.

I somewhat find that the immigrants or people of immigrant background adopt a similar mindset. More of a local Canadiana in their day to day habits and lifestyles/Neighborhoods. You routinely find people of immigrant backgrounds in Toronto/Montreal who have lived in Canada for 30 years and speak little English. In the neighborhoods and people they grew up with all speak their language and have businesses and professions to cater to them. Stark difference than in Alberta