Flames On Ice Percentages (3 years for Core)

[Bingo]

Mentioned in the Bennett topic, but the Flames had some odd numbers last season suggesting the room for some bounce back this year, or is it a trend for certain players on the team.

Below is a look at on ice shooting percentage for core players (still here or outgoing)



Notes:
- Gaudreau and Monahan had off 16/17 years, but bounced back in 17/18 to match their 15/16 numbers, carrying the team. Last year wasn't an anomoly
- 3M line cratered in on ice, which doesn't fit the norm, especially when you consider the line added Tkachuk in year two, and Tkachuk improved in year three. They averaged 5.7% last year compared to 7.8% the year before
- Sam Bennett went from 8.6% to 6.2% to 5.7%. That's tough to do.
- Looks like Dougie Hamilton jumped up in shooting percentage when paired with Giordano. Coincidence?
- Giordano actually went down considerably from his previous two years
- Ferland up for the second straight year, sustainable?

Now here is On Ice Save Percentage



- 3M line has low on ice save percentage, clearly as a result of tough matchups, but even so their numbers cratered compared to the average last year.
- Ferland led the way in good fortune from Calgary goaltenders
- Sam Bennett's save percentage isn't a problem when compared to the rest of the team which says he isn't as unlucky when it comes to goaltending, but also he may not have a systemic defensive problem. His shooting percentage is killing him.

[jaikorven]

I like what we can infer from this, but do wonder how much weight we can really place on it. Either way its the dog days of summer and these make it more interesting, so thanks Bingo.

[Bingo]

I think the easiest thing pulled from that is the fact that the 3M line had a ridiculously unlucky season.

The only one of three that is possibly in decline (steep or gradual) is Frolik, while Tkachuk will only get better.

[GranteedEV]

Gully hockey. No risk, no reward. Just cycle, cycle, cycle with opponents having five players set in the D zone. In 2016-17 the lack of talent on D with Stone/Engelland/Bartkowski/Jokipakka prevented them from executing Gully's plan, but last year we got exactly the vision he had in mind. No using the middle of the ice, no stretch pass, no pinching into dangerous areas, no line shuffling.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Gully hockey. No risk, no reward. Just cycle, cycle, cycle with opponents having five players set in the D zone. In 2016-17 the lack of talent on D with Stone/Engelland/Bartkowski/Jokipakka prevented them from executing Gully's plan, but last year we got exactly the vision he had in mind. No using the middle of the ice, no stretch pass, no pinching into dangerous areas, no line shuffling.

Can't be true! Yesterday he said the Oilers are going to play more road hockey!

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think the easiest thing pulled from that is the fact that the 3M line had a ridiculously unlucky season.

That, and that the goaltending was improved last year.

And it was probably a good time to sell high on Ferland.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Would be interesting to see which players had dramatically different first and second half splits. Did Ferland start to return to his norm in the second part of the season? I perceive that he did, but I don't know if the data backs that up.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Would be interesting to see which players had dramatically different first and second half splits. Did Ferland start to return to his norm in the second part of the season? I perceive that he did, but I don't know if the data backs that up.

Ferland ...

Games	SH%	SV%
Game 1-20	0.093023256	0.941605839
Game 21-40	0.082758621	0.941176471
Game 41-60	0.094594595	0.93125
Game 61+	0.104347826	0.858585859

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Would be interesting to see which players had dramatically different first and second half splits. Did Ferland start to return to his norm in the second part of the season? I perceive that he did, but I don't know if the data backs that up.

What is Ferland's norm though? He has gotten better every year. No doubt the guy is a late bloomer and will be interesting to see if he can cement himself as a consistent scorer this year. If so, he will earn himself a nice payday.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think the easiest thing pulled from that is the fact that the 3M line had a ridiculously unlucky season.

The only one of three that is possibly in decline (steep or gradual) is Frolik, while Tkachuk will only get better.

Frolik suffered a significant injury that likely affected him more than anyone thinks. I'd be interested to see his numbers pre and post injury to make a better assessment of his potential decline.

For me, the 3M line is a thing of the past (or it should be) so worrying about their production is kind of moot. The time has come to spread these guys around where they belong now that the roster is deep enough to do so.

[no_joke]

These are the components of individual PDO, correct? Can you do a quick sum for the lazy?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

What is Ferland's norm though? He has gotten better every year. No doubt the guy is a late bloomer and will be interesting to see if he can cement himself as a consistent scorer this year. If so, he will earn himself a nice payday.

Ferland was a really good fit on that top line, which is why heading into this season I had no issue with him keeping his place there. However, of the three players—Gaudreau, Monahan, and Ferland—he easily raises the most questions.

I always felt that Ferland was good at what he did on that line, but also that he benefitted tremendously from both Gaudreau's and Monahan's exceptional play. In my opinion, Monahan still does not get nearly enough credit for his value to this team: while he was struggling with injuries this past season, both Gaudreau and Ferland noticeably suffered, and the. when he was shut down, they both practically disappeared.

[TheIronMaiden]

It makes sense that the shooting percentage was so low. The Flames struggled to to penetrate the middle of the ice in the offensive zone.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

It makes sense that the shooting percentage was so low. The Flames struggled to to penetrate the middle of the ice in the offensive zone.

I don't think that is what the "scoring chance" data indicates. As I recall from Bingo's posts the Flames were consistently among the best teams in shot-generation from the home-plate area.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I don't think that is what the "scoring chance" data indicates. As I recall from Bingo's posts the Flames were consistently among the best teams in shot-generation from the home-plate area.

Yeah middle of the ice wasn't an issue, and with that they had great counting stats for scoring chances (regular and high danger).

That isn't to say they arrived at those shots in the best situation though. There was a study that suggested the Flames lagged behind in passes into the scoring areas which would mean they were runaway leaders in carrying the puck into the scoring areas and giving the goalie more time to set up.

Ryan and Lindholm are both known as passers in the offensive zone, and Neal is known one timer guy ... new bullets this year.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Frolik suffered a significant injury that likely affected him more than anyone thinks. I'd be interested to see his numbers pre and post injury to make a better assessment of his potential decline.

For me, the 3M line is a thing of the past (or it should be) so worrying about their production is kind of moot. The time has come to spread these guys around where they belong now that the roster is deep enough to do so.

Looks like it didn't play a big factor. His on ice shooting percentage pre and post injury were similar, but his on ice SV% tanked ... which I doubt you can blame on time away.

Bad breaks.