Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[Mull]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I don't disagree with this post per se, but Harper did win with nearly nothing at all in Quebec. 2011 Federal Election:

Spoiler!

Thanks for this, I also have been peddling the thought you can't win Canada without Quebec, don't now how I misremembered 2011 so poorly. I do remember the narrative of the Bloc getting owned by the NDP, but I don't remember the Conservatives being pretty much shut out too.

[Mayo]

Originally Posted by Bunk

Scheer's inability overcome perhaps the most scandal-ridden incumbent Prime Minister in history was directly related to not enough voters thinking he had a credible climate change plan for Canada. Putting political capital on the line to build pipelines is going to necessarily have to come along with climate change-related action. To think otherwise is dreaming.

I don't know of anyone who didn't vote for Scheer over climate issues

I know several (Ontario voters) who didn't because of his personal pro-life stance

[CaptainCrunch]

Yup Scheer was a awful choice for the Cons, He managed to lose a battle with a corrupt PM. For that he should be flushed from the history books.


I was hoping for more from O'Toole, but he hasn't exactly floated my boat either, started well, and then seems to have fallen apart.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by Mayo

I don't know of anyone who didn't vote for Scheer over climate issues

I know several (Ontario voters) who didn't because of his personal pro-life stance

There’s been a fair amount of analysis on the question post 2019 election, such as:

https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/to-w...mate-plan/amp/

[Bindair Dundat]

What a lot of people are not appreciating is the function of consumerism/demographics and the part this plays in the big (Global) picture. There is a really smart (talking head) guy named Peter Zeihan that has made prognostications over the years. The bulk of these have proven out,
Any one who considers themself as an "intellectual" should certainly have a listen to what this guy is laying down.

It's not "easy sledding", you have to pay diligent attention because the key points fly by quickly. It's (his thesis) primarily based around the demographic shift in Global populations. The resultant effects on consumer based economies are pretty indicative.
IOW? Fasten your seat belts folks...
There is way more to Zeihan but I'll leave it at this.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Rutuu

I always love your stuff Cowboy89.

I've heard this exact argument posed for other resource based nations. It always makes me think about economies like New Zealand, Singapore and Israel. They do quite well without natural resources. Canada has a lot of advantages. I don't see people rolling over if we didn't export resources anymore (in an extreme scenario), the brightest minds in the country would just develop other industries, like those smaller economies I mentioned.

Canadians are tougher and more respected than people that live in Canada give them credit for.

Canada's GDP per capita is 15-20% higher than Israel and New Zealand. Singapore is a city state and global financial center, so I don't think its directly comparable.

I agree that after a period of adjustment we could stabilize our standard of living at 15-20% less than it is currently. I'm not sure how enthusiastic you'd find people to be about a 15-20% pay cut, but my guess is not very.

[Bindair Dundat]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Canada's GDP per capita is 15-20% higher than Israel and New Zealand. Singapore is a city state and global financial center, so I don't think its directly comparable.

I agree that after a period of adjustment we could stabilize our standard of living at 15-20% less than it is currently. I'm not sure how enthusiastic you'd find people to be about a 15-20% pay cut, but my guess is not very.

Of all people? You should digest Zeihan and perhaps reconsider your proposed "solution"

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Canada's GDP per capita is 15-20% higher than Israel and New Zealand. Singapore is a city state and global financial center, so I don't think its directly comparable.

I agree that after a period of adjustment we could stabilize our standard of living at 15-20% less than it is currently. I'm not sure how enthusiastic you'd find people to be about a 15-20% pay cut, but my guess is not very.

Lots of places to get the numbers from (2019): https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD
Canada: $46,194
Israel: $43,592 (5.6% less)
NZ: $42,084 (8.9% less)
Singapore: $65,233

All currencies have caught up to the USD over that period, and the Shekel and the NZD have caught up to Canada, the gaps won't be as big in USD terms.

Plenty of opportunity outside of resources. The rest of the country without them will keep on moving on.

[accord1999]

I'm not sure New Zealand can be considered a non-resource economy, as its major exports are agricultural products and wood.

Exports: The top exports of New Zealand are Concentrated Milk ($5.08B), Sheep and Goat Meat ($2.68B), Butter ($2.59B), Rough Wood ($2.49B), and Frozen Bovine Meat ($1.89B), exporting mostly to China ($9.75B), Australia ($6.17B), United States ($3.82B), Japan ($2.43B), and South Korea ($1.25B).

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/nzl

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Thunderball

I mostly agree with you. It's absolutely true that the prior generations completely squandered wealth (including the federal governments who were all too happy to accept the higher tax revenues from Alberta taxpayers with no foresight or support). It's also true that this is the first generation that will absolutely do worse than their parents.

What I don't agree with is this one dimensional view that all political parties seem to have. You can diversify and be a strong advocate for oil and gas, which is why the NDP were idiots for not advocating for energy, and the UCP are idiots for pulling back the subsidies/programs for tech and other industries that the NDP actually did right.

As an aside, my family made their money in O&G, and like you, I also saw the writing on the wall that the money just wouldn't be the same to sustain my career. One could say the same about law though. The money is still very good, but not even close to what firms were doing in the 1980s. We also don't have a massive gain on our principal residences to look forward to help fund our retirement and harvest tax free like the prior generations.

Biden is a jerk for what he did and despite the lipstick on the pig approach our government is taking, he is not a friend to Canada, he's as self interested as Trump, but in a smoother and more likable package. That said, he's very much a political creature, and you don't blame someone for acting in their nature when you should know better. You don't last nearly 50 years in politics if you aren't. I don't blame him, he has no obligation to us other than loyalty to an ally and honouring free trade, but that is barely worth the paper it is printed on nowadays. I blame the Liberals, and I also blame both Notley and Kenney (and Redford and Stelmach) for all being one dimensional rubes.

Canada has made two fatal mistakes in my view:

First, we made ourselves dependent on the Americans one too many times, and they know it. Why do us favours when they have a nice little reserve supply that they can "help us tap" if they need it, while winning support by vilifying it in the short term. Energy East was essential to confederation, whether the east sees it or not. Without it, we're simply too dependent on others.

Second, Canadians lack the killer instinct the rest of the world has. We're like the middle child of a rich parent. We assume we're going to be taken care of because we're agreeable and because we have only known wealth in our lives. There is no doubt that fossil fuels will be phased out. It might be 10 years, it might be 100 years. Every single other producing nation is going to be trying to squeeze every last penny out of this, from the US, to Norway to Saudi and everyone in between. They also smell weakness, so they pick on Canada to camouflage their own efforts. Meanwhile, we are being "good citizens of the world" and refusing to support an income stream necessary to help us pay for the oncoming demographic nightmare when the baby boomers retire and die out with insufficient wealth to support their retirement. We also lack the motivation to fix what is now an insurmountable task to build projects. The quest for consensus and reconciliation means a lot of people's livelihoods (including FNs) are at risk now, and it didn't have to be this way.

It's going to be a tough decade, that's for sure. We have a lot of desperate and hopeless people in this province, and likely soon, this country.

I thought after a very bad start Notley did come around to being a solid supporter of O&G.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by edslunch

I thought after a very bad start Notley did come around to being a solid supporter of O&G.

One of the things that pisses me off the most about her.

She let her ideology lead her around by the nose until it was too late. She is a very intelligent person and an excellent politician, if she'd used her brains sooner we would be better off.

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by accord1999

I'm not sure New Zealand can be considered a non-resource economy, as its major exports are agricultural products and wood.




https://oec.world/en/profile/country/nzl

Fair comment. I guess it's your definition of what is a resource.

First I should have clarified between non-renewable (on human time scales) resources and renewable resources. Secondly I would consider concentrated milk powder as a product as it has to be dried, processed, packaged and marketed. Butter would be the same.

I was a little disappointed that adventure sports didn't make their GDP list.

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by Locke

One of the things that pisses me off the most about her.

She let her ideology lead her around by the nose until it was too late. She is a very intelligent person and an excellent politician, if she'd used her brains sooner we would be better off.

That's a very good description. She won me over by the end but it was too late for most others. I hope we (Alberta) give her a second chance

[guzzy]

Originally Posted by btimbit

That's a very good description. She won me over by the end but it was too late for most others. I hope we (Alberta) give her a second chance

my problem with the NDP wasn't Notley, it was the "talent" around her. A large percentage of elected MLA's in that party had no business being in politics. Her cabinet was a disgrace.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by guzzy

my problem with the NDP wasn't Notley, it was the "talent" around her. A large percentage of elected MLA's in that party had no business being in politics. Her cabinet was a disgrace.

While I agree that the surprise win left them with few qualified people, it's not like Kenney has surrounded himself with experts. They are all hardcore Kenney worshipers who have bungled their way through everything they have attempted.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by edslunch

I thought after a very bad start Notley did come around to being a solid supporter of O&G.

I'm a huge cynic when it comes to politics so I'd argue that she only came around when it started to become apparent that the right would be united again.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by btimbit

That's a very good description. She won me over by the end but it was too late for most others. I hope we (Alberta) give her a second chance

She lost me by the end. I think that people look back on her time with rose-tinted glasses. For me, the carbon tax implementation and borrowing for operations were absolute deal-breakers. There is no other description for that, other than sheer fiscal incompetence. You can chalk some things up to inexperience and I'll go along with that. But when you are so daft as to borrow for operations and try to paint it as 'Keynesian", I'm out. It's incredibly stupid.

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by Slava

She lost me by the end. I think that people look back on her time with rose-tinted glasses. For me, the carbon tax implementation and borrowing for operations were absolute deal-breakers. There is no other description for that, other than sheer fiscal incompetence. You can chalk some things up to inexperience and I'll go along with that. But when you are so daft as to borrow for operations and try to paint it as 'Keynesian", I'm out. It's incredibly stupid.

This. There are a lot of issues with the UCP, but anyone who sees the NDP as good fiscal stewards in comparison needs to take a step back.

Alberta needs an actual fiscal conservative party that isn't handcuffed with ideology. The closest is the Alberta Party, but they need a lot of work.

Alberta also needs to forge some deals within Canada, and be able to use that bloc to force the government's hand. Getting Ontario and Saskatchewan to help push Trudeau on Keystone is what we need more of.

[edslunch]

Nm, double post

[troutman]

Originally Posted by guzzy

my problem with the NDP wasn't Notley, it was the "talent" around her. A large percentage of elected MLA's in that party had no business being in politics. Her cabinet was a disgrace.

Didn't Prentice call a snap election, giving the NDP very little time to field and develop candidates?