2024 Toronto Blue Jays Season Thread

[JTech780]

As of right now, on paper the Jays aren’t better than the Yankees, Red Sox or Orioles. Even if they signed Burnes, Bregman and Santander, I am not sure that they are better than those teams.

There is something many parallels between the Gaudreau/Monahan years to the Bo/Vladdy years. So much excitement to finally have legit talent to build around, never being able to build a complete team around the stars, both stars never being able to be the best versions of themselves at the same time, teams holding onto the stars too long. Will the Jays lose their stars for nothing like Calgary did?

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by JTech780

As of right now, on paper the Jays aren’t better than the Yankees, Red Sox or Orioles. Even if they signed Burnes, Bregman and Santander, I am not sure that they are better than those teams.

There is something many parallels between the Gaudreau/Monahan years to the Bo/Vladdy years. So much excitement to finally have legit talent to build around, never being able to build a complete team around the stars, both stars never being able to be the best versions of themselves at the same time, teams holding onto the stars too long. Will the Jays lose their stars for nothing like Calgary did?

You've seen the Orioles rotation? They just signed 35yo shatballer from Japan who had a 6k/9 over there last season, and he's projected as their #4 starter lol

As it stands I agree, the Jays could easily finish last in the AL east, but if they signed Burnes, Bregman and Santander (they won't) they certainly wouldn't be THAT bad on paper. Those are HUGE upgrades in current areas of weakness.

[JTech780]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

You've seen the Orioles rotation? They just signed 35yo shatballer from Japan who had a 6k/9 over there last season, and he's projected as their #4 starter lol

As it stands I agree, the Jays could easily finish last in the AL east, but if they signed Burnes, Bregman and Santander (they won't) they certainly wouldn't be THAT bad on paper. Those are HUGE upgrades in current areas of weakness.

True. Though I am not a huge fan of Bregman, he is really overrated. If he is a 25 HR guy with the Crawford Boxes, he is probably a 20 or less HR guy without them.

[Jason14h]

With Burnes the Jays could have the best rotation in MLB if Francis plays like he did in the 2nd half

If you have arms you always have a chance

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by JTech780

True. Though I am not a huge fan of Bregman, he is really overrated. If he is a 25 HR guy with the Crawford Boxes, he is probably a 20 or less HR guy without them.

I don't really believe Bregman is worth the length of contract Boras is seeking but I wouldn't worry about this. His home/splits are mostly better on the road.

The last three years OPS of .820, .804 and .768 is the concern IMO. He has a great eye but for some reason his walks went way down this year.

[Roof-Daddy]

The other thing about Bregman is he's always been a good defensive 3B as well, so you're not solely relying on his bat for value.

[Roof-Daddy]

Jays apparently interested in Pivetta, as well as many other teams.

He could be very good value out of what's left on the SP market.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Jays apparently interested in Pivetta, as well as many other teams.

He could be very good value out of what's left on the SP market.

I’d be on board with this. Slots in 3-5 on this roster.

[Inferno]

Of course they were.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1869166411303825889

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by Inferno

Of course they were.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1869166411303825889

I have little doubt they indeed were interested. After their recent deal, that could be their MO. They can't trade their good prospects anymore, so taking a risk by taking on a high contract seems to be where they're looking. They were also keen last year to try and bring in Bellinger, so I'm not surprised if there's actual truth to this.

An interesting thing about Bellinger is there are rumors his now wife was Stanton's ex-gf. Hopefully things ended cordially, or this year could see some interesting divisions on the bench.

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by bluejays

An interesting thing about Bellinger is there are rumors his now wife was Stanton's ex-gf.

Not rumors, truth.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by bluejays

I have little doubt they indeed were interested. After their recent deal, that could be their MO. They can't trade their good prospects anymore, so taking a risk by taking on a high contract seems to be where they're looking. They were also keen last year to try and bring in Bellinger, so I'm not surprised if there's actual truth to this.

An interesting thing about Bellinger is there are rumors his now wife was Stanton's ex-gf. Hopefully things ended cordially, or this year could see some interesting divisions on the bench.

We can't sign FAs so we'll just take the FAs where the contracts didn't work out in cheap trades. Hard to imagine how that could go wrong.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

We can't sign FAs so we'll just take the FAs where the contracts didn't work out in cheap trades. Hard to imagine how that could go wrong.

I have to unequivocally state I'm not an Atkins fan. However, I think this approach can work. It really depends on the threshold of risk a particular organization is willing to take. Let's say the A's had a player like Bichette signed to a high contract. There's a certain risk that he won't perform up to expectations. On the team like the A's, that risk may be too high for the amount they're paying so they not want to take that and may give away that contract for little just to get it off their books. If the Jays think they have a diamond in the rough, just for taking on that monetary risk, why not? Most of these aren't lifer contracts. Still beats getting Turner or Kiermeier type fill ins. It gets a little dicey when players are chronically injured or have been outside their prime for a couple years, but assuming their scouting and doctors sign off on it, I don't think it's a bad strategy. Beats dealing the Moreno's in lower contracts IMO.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by bluejays

I have to unequivocally state I'm not an Atkins fan. However, I think this approach can work. It really depends on the threshold of risk a particular organization is willing to take. Let's say the A's had a player like Bichette signed to a high contract. There's a certain risk that he won't perform up to expectations. On the team like the A's, that risk may be too high for the amount they're paying so they not want to take that and may give away that contract for little just to get it off their books. If the Jays think they have a diamond in the rough, just for taking on that monetary risk, why not? Most of these aren't lifer contracts. Still beats getting Turner or Kiermeier type fill ins. It gets a little dicey when players are chronically injured or have been outside their prime for a couple years, but assuming their scouting and doctors sign off on it, I don't think it's a bad strategy. Beats dealing the Moreno's in lower contracts IMO.

Aren't almost all bad contracts for older players? You're usually not going to gain upside or find a diamond in the rough, but just hoping the decline is slowing so that they become decent value.

Nolan Arenado would be an example this offseason. It Cardinals eat enough salary maybe he is serviceable?

[Jason14h]

We literally just did this with trading for Gimenez from Cleveland

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

We literally just did this with trading for Gimenez from Cleveland

Yeah. Gimenez plus an attempt for Bellinger is certainly a pattern.

I'm not totally opposed to that as a tool in the tool box, and Gimenez has lower downside than Bellinger (imo) because he's a plus defender. Probably less upside though.

Betting on guys to bounce back is OK, but I hate that the Jays don't seem to be able to draft/develop internally. Taking high $ contracts in trade is fine if you're adding it as an arrow to the quiver, but if that's all we have I think it's going to be insufficient and disappointing.

[JTech780]

Gimenez and Bellinger have put up the exact same amount of WAR the last two seasons, 6.6 combined. Gimenez is cheaper this year.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by JTech780

Gimenez and Bellinger have put up the exact same amount of WAR the last two seasons, 6.6 combined. Gimenez is cheaper this year.

True that Gimeniz is cheaper the next 2 years. But then the Bellinger deal is over and Gimenez has 3 years at 23.5 left.

So while they're probably equal in the recent past and I think Gimenez has less downside on the field because more of his value is from his glove, those extra years increase the downside. If he ends up being terrible they're stuck with him for a long time.

[Andrew]

Originally Posted by Inferno

Not rumors, truth.

Sean Avery and sloppy seconds

[JTech780]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

True that Gimeniz is cheaper the next 2 years. But then the Bellinger deal is over and Gimenez has 3 years at 23.5 left.

So while they're probably equal in the recent past and I think Gimenez has less downside on the field because more of his value is from his glove, those extra years increase the downside. If he ends up being terrible they're stuck with him for a long time.

Gimenez is also 3 years younger than Bellinger and only 2 years removed from a 6.1 WAR season, Bellinger is 5 years removed from that type of season.