A Blow-it-up Strategy with a Twist

[mikephoen]

First, let me say that I don’t for a second think the Flames, or any other team, would actually do this. I do think the Flames are in a very unique position to try it, but it won’t happen. So this is more of a thought experiment.

The basic premise is to admit this rebuild failed and switch to a bottom out rebuild strategy while the current assets still have high value. The twist is to load up on draft picks that are one to two drafts out instead of trying to get picks for the upcoming draft. The reason the timing is right for the Flames to try this is to try to have an exciting team that’s either a contender or on the cusp of being a contender when the new building opens.

The overall goal has these key components:
• A large number of high-end players entering the league on entry level contracts at around the same time
• All of the bad money contracts and buyouts off the books
• A ton of cap space to sign a small number of very high end free agents or trade for high end players in their prime to supplement the entry level players
• Truly bottom out and get 2+ top 3 draft picks. Imagine if the current rebuild had bottomed out and picked McKinnon or Barkov instead of Monahan and Ekblad or Draisaitl instead of Bennett

The reason to target draft picks in the 2021 and 2022 drafts instead of the 2020 draft is three fold. First, teams don’t want to give up 2020 draft picks because the draft is said to be very deep, so it’s harder to acquire them. Second, and more important, there is much more uncertainty two or three years out, so you have a much higher chance of some of these picks ending up as top 5 or top 10 picks when the teams that traded them to us pull a San Jose or an Ottawa. Maybe you get really lucky and one or more of them end up top 3. Third, you want these young players entering the league after Lucic and Brouwer are off the books. Maximizing the cap space in those early entry level years allows the team to add a few high end vets to supplement key positions. Start too early and the dead money contracts might prevent the Flames from adding that Hossa-like player at the exact right time that their Kane, Toews and Kieth-like players are still on entry level deals.

The first step is to move out the current core and most other players that have value. That can be at the deadline this season, or at the draft if that opens a wider field of interested teams for top players.

Core players to move at the 2020 trade deadline or at the 2020 draft:

Johnny Gaudreau
Sean Monahan
Mikael Backlund
TJ Brodie
Travis Hamonic


All of these players get moved for draft picks, with a focus on 2021 and 2022 first rounders. Second and later round picks are also good, and can be in 2020 since those picks will take longer to develop. To help maximize the number of 1sts, the Flames can also take back some bad money contracts from teams, as long as none of the bad money extends past the last year of the Lucic contract. For example, Backlund’s value to a team like the Bruins goes way up if the Flames take back the horrible Backes contract from them.

With a goal of being an exciting young team in 22/23 and an actual contender in 23/24, the only current players that are likely to still be around are Thachuk, Lindholm (debatable), Andersson, Valimaki (if injuries haven’t derailed him) and some of our current 21 and under prospects. Maybe players like Dube, Mangiapane, or Kylington are also around.

So what about the rest? Here is what I would suggest:

Giordano -- Could go one of two ways. Let him play out his contract in Calgary if he wants as good veteran leadership will help this team to not become mired in perpetual rebuild like the oilers or Sabres. Or, if he wants to chase a cup, move him at the ’21 deadline or the ’22 deadline for picks and/or prospects.

Ryan – Move him at the ’21 deadline as a rental

Bennett and Jankowski -- Keep them this year, unless you get an offer dramatically better than their current play would warrant. Play them much further up the lineup in the ’20-’21 season and try to rebuild their value. Move them at the ’21 deadline for whatever you can get

Hanifin -- Give him lots of opportunity over the next couple seasons. If he improves, keep him with the intention of re-signing him. If he plateaus, look to move him for picks/prospects or a player for player trade depending on how far into the future you keep him.

Lucic, Stone, Rieder etc – If you can get anything for these guys, you take it

Kylington, Mangiapane, Dube, other current prospects -- Give them lots of opportunity to see what they can be. Depending on the results, they could still be here in 23/24 as vets, or they may have been moved in larger deals with current core players, or moved at previous deadlines if they aren’t in the future plans.


By the 23/24 season the team looks something like:

Tkachuk (C) - Top 3 pick - Elite Vet Free Agent
Pelletier – Lindholm (A) – 1st Round pick
Dube – 1st Rounder – graduated prospect
Graduated prospect – Vet Centre on short term contract (signed or traded for) – Graduated prospect

Elite Vet Free agent – Andersson (A)
Valimaki - Top 3 pick
Graduated prospect – vet on short term contract (signed or traded for)

2 goalies


Going forward from there, sign the elite players to long term contracts after their entry levels end and bridge or trade the lesser ones. With all the picks gained from now until 22/23 there should still be lots of good prospects in the AHL/college pushing to join the lineup or to use as trade bait to pick up another elite talent or fill holes as needed.

Tldr; Cash out the current team for picks. Bottom out for top picks in ’20-’21 and ’21-’22. Wait out the dead money contracts to be free and clear of them by ’23-’24 in the new building. Use the ample cap room to get one or two elite free agents to supplement the top draft picks, Tkachuk, Andersson and Lindholm. Profit.

[N-E-B]

No thanks

[dissentowner]

Half the board have lost their goddamn minds. This is what years of futility breeds. Group CP therapy buy?

[Hackey]

If your goal was to build the best team in the shortest amount of time this would be the best strategy. No strategy is guaranteed or perfect but I do believe statistically this would be the best. As you've said though it would never happen.

The way it works is if you land a couple high end players by bottoming out with your own picks, fill other holes through the trades you've made, use your surplus of assets to make trades, make some key signings.

The reason I think the Flames are doomed is they have no elite talent. The Avs have McKinnon, Rantanen, Makar. Those are legit superstars and they have a strong supporting cast. Their problem will be keeping that team together. Other Stanely Cup teams have Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov. Crosby, Malkin. Kane, Toews, Keith. Kopitar, Doughty. I just dont see Monahan and Johnny at this level. They are closer to the supporting cast of all those Cup winning teams. Unless something drastic happens the team has likely topped out and will fizzle out. Gio getting older. Backlund getting older. Brodie or Hamonic likely gone. Gaudreau potentially gone. Those are big holes to not only fill but to improve on.

Obviously the full rebuild isnt going to happen which is why I'd take a retool. I think retool might just lead to more of the same but at least it would extend our window of competitiveness to allow for something unexpected to happen like landing a Pastrnak or Kuznetaov with a late pick or even just solid drafting.

[Cheese]

He done blowed it up!

[Lanny_McDonald]

Yeah! Rebuild!!! SMH

[SportsJunky]

Thanked because you put so much effort into your post.

[Dan403]

Awful plan is awful.

[FireGilbert]

Isn’t this basically the best EA Sports NHL be a GM strategy? It works great in a video game against AI GMs but trying this in the real world turns you into the Oilers and a 15 year rebuild filled with first round busts and overpriced FAs.

[topfiverecords]

That team wouldn’t go from exciting young team to cup contender in one season. Maybe a minimum of 5 if you’re lucky.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Thanked for the effort put in.

We are here for the purposes of discussion. There is some serious multi-year thought that went in to this thread’s initial post and it deserves appreciation.

And at the same time, if you find a unicorn forward that rounds out the the top 6, it accomplishes some of this more quickly. Stone is a good example. It can happen that players come available, but then again there is hope and competition.

I think that last year’s team won a ton on the offensive capabilities of a few elite players, and the overall makeup didn’t have the right kind of depth to make it work.

If this OP plan was to happen, I get how it could work. Just wonder about the hit vs miss thing with this franchise, where 4th rounders like Johnny and Brodie hit, and the org has seen first round Fatas. A bird in the hand, if you will

[Frank MetaMusil]

Flames can't allow this rebuild to become another rebuild for picks. That's the Oiler addiction.

Boudreau, Gallant, and Laviolette must be interviewed this time. Build a better team.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by FireGilbert

Isn’t this basically the best EA Sports NHL be a GM strategy? It works great in a video game against AI GMs but trying this in the real world turns you into the Oilers and a 15 year rebuild filled with first round busts and overpriced FAs.

Why does the strategy create first round busts and overpriced FAs? That literally makes no sense. If you pick busts that's either on your scouting or bad luck. It has nothing to do with the strategy. And if you overpay for free agents that's just bad management that any team could do following any strategy at any point in the teams competitive cycle.

The Oilers got Hall, RNH, and Yakupov consecutively. The top picks the three years before that were Kane, Stamkos, Tavares. The three drafts after were MacKinnon, Ekblad, McDavid. So either they had bad luck or bad drafting.

Loading up on picks isnt a bad strategy based on the Oilers sucking at drafting. Fact is if you dont draft well you're doomed no matter what your strategy is.

[Kipper_3434]

A fine idea, except for one huge problem. Tkachuk will not resign long term on a rebuilding flames team.

[Vinny01]

No way Tkachuk is here long term if they tear it down.

This team can be retooled by moving some of our key players but to go scorched earth is just not realistic.

Is the OP a season ticket holder?

Being one myself I would not continue to spend thousands of dollars a season on tickets of they decided to enter a tank build after this season

[ForeverFlameFan]

Rebuilding is not the answer.

Retooling the core? Absolutely.

Like others have mentioned, we have to yet again look for a top tier coach. Those are the guys that win playoff series.

Hartley? Gone because of disagreements with Treliving
GG? Treliving's pick, terrible pick
Peters? Was good, but was a terrible coach outside of camera view. Also wasn't good during the Avs playoff series.
Ward? Interim HC, too inexperienced to lead the helm with the Flames. If he wants a HC job, a rebuilding team can try him. If he can remain an AC here, then he can stay.

None of these guys were top tier HC's. We really need to spend the money on one if we want to ever go far in the playoffs. Find a coach that can make the proper in-game adjustments to win the games necessary to move on from each round.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Completely tearing down and rebuilding straight through draft picks is very risky as we've seen from places like BUF, EDM and others.

The major problem is that if you go for the top 5 pick multiple years in a row you are losing a lot. Then you're bringing these high picks into a losing environment where lo and behold they learn how to be losers, accept losing, don't know what it takes to consistently win at the NHL level. Heck even here we've seen despite our couple playoff runs with our young core, it's hard to install a consistent winning mentality and attitude even though we only briefly bottomed out.

It's super dangerous to just lose, lose, lose and hope you can eventually bring in a winning culture. Just bringing in high draft picks does not ensure it. And with the draft lottery you aren't even guaranteed a top 3 pick for a bottom 3 finish.

Retooling is quite clearly a much better way for the Flames to go. We already have many good key pieces. Cull the losers, the guy's who won't consistently play the right way. We're close to being a good team now, why would we intentionally set the franchise back by 5 years? Any calls to do a full rebuild are crazy talk to me.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Completely tearing down and rebuilding straight through draft picks is very risky as we've seen from places like BUF, EDM and others.

The major problem is that if you go for the top 5 pick multiple years in a row you are losing a lot. Then you're bringing these high picks into a losing environment where lo and behold they learn how to be losers, accept losing, don't know what it takes to consistently win at the NHL level. Heck even here we've seen despite our couple playoff runs with our young core, it's hard to install a consistent winning mentality and attitude even though we only briefly bottomed out.

It's super dangerous to just lose, lose, lose and hope you can eventually bring in a winning culture. Just bringing in high draft picks does not ensure it. And with the draft lottery you aren't even guaranteed a top 3 pick for a bottom 3 finish.

Retooling is quite clearly a much better way for the Flames to go. We already have many good key pieces. Cull the losers, the guy's who won't consistently play the right way. We're close to being a good team now, why would we intentionally set the franchise back by 5 years? Any calls to do a full rebuild are crazy talk to me.

Except you're missing the key point with his strategy. You use your abundance of assets now to load up for the near future so you have an influx of young talent coming in at once, use your assets to make trades to bring in established players, use your cap space to sign guys, etc, all in a short window.

The big problem with scorch earth rebuilds is that they usually happen out of necessity because the team has bottomed out and now they are slowly trying to build with limited assets. You've lost guys to free agency, you've waited to the final year of contracts and got low returns back, your stars have aged and left or declined, etc.

Most teams land stars through a bottom out rebuild but dont have the assets to supplement the rest of the roster. This strategy gives you a ton of assets to fill in the roster as well as cap space to sign guys. Players are way more likely to sign when they see so much promise as opposed to regular rebuilds that have a couple good players and nothing else.

The Oilers dont suck because of their elite talent they suck because of a lack of depth. I see the logic of landing superstars in the most probable manner and being ready to surround them with talent right away. But yes it would never happen for various reasons.

[the-rasta-masta]

Put down the mikephoen.

[Joborule]

EDIT: nm