Matthew Tkachuk contract negotiations

[EldrickOnIce]

Bringing this discussion from garbage bag day thread.

Tkachuk stated he will not play in the upcoming IIHF WHC due to not having a contract this summer. This is a smart business decision.
Gaudreau offered Tkachuk advice, cautioning him to get it out of the way earlier instead of later. I'm sure Treliving agrees, and Nylander is also a cautionary tale to both team and player about getting things done on time.
Who are the similar RFAs who may help set the market, and what can we expect this contract to look like?

[TheScorpion]

The big comparable unsigned RFAs this year are:

Mitch Marner
Brayden Point
Mikko Rantanen
Sebastian Aho
Timo Meier
Kyle Connor
Kevin Labanc
Patrick Laine

All of those guys are between 20 and 22, recorded 50+ points last year, and are pending RFAs. In addition, 25-year-old William Karlsson needs a contract.

Other players to consider:

21-year-old Auston Matthews (5 years x $11.634 million)
23-year-old Nick Schmaltz (7 years x $5.85 million)
24-year-old Teuvo Teravainen (5 years x $5.4 million)
24-year-old Jake Guentzel (5 years x $6 million)
22-year-old Alex Tuch (7 years x $4.75 million)
22-year-old William Nylander (6 years x $6.96 million).

[keenan87]

7.0 MM for 6 years.

I love Tkachuk but don't think he is on the same level as Marner, Matthews, Point, Rantanen, and Aho. These guys consistently take over games while Tkachuk does too, but not as often.

Timo Meier and Jake Guentzel are probably his closest comparisons.

[transplant99]

im just gonna drop what i said in garbage day thread here

But isn't that the crux of the discussion?

What IS his value?

I believe that he will look for something between Matthews and whatever Laine/Marner get, and rightfully so.

That number is going to be 9 million or so...maybe a bit more. Matthews at 11.5 sort of set the bar although he scores more and is a C. Marner wont settle for 3 million less than his team mate that he has outpointed since they came in together. So that puts him at 9+. Laine had a weird year but again goal scorers get paid. All this is to say, that Matthew is going to get paid very very well.

So, are we OK with a 5/6 year $9.5 million per deal? Cause that will be the kind of money he is looking for.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by transplant99

im just gonna drop what i said in garbage day thread here

There is no way Tkachuk is getting $9M or more a year.

Edit: Let me re-phrase that. If he signs an 8 year deal it could be possible. There is no way he gets 9M a year on a 5 or 6 year deal which takes him to his prime years and free agency. If that is what his ask is he can sit or you trade him. I think he comes in on a 6 year deal at 7.5M per.

[Azure]

He had a poor stretch leading into the playoffs and didn't exactly play well during the playoffs.

I think he should get $7.5 to $8 per.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

There is no way Tkachuk is getting $9M or more a year.

and if he does you'll never post here again?

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

and if he does you'll never post here again?

Good try troll.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

There is no way Tkachuk is getting $9M or more a year.

Especially at 5 years, which is rumoured his ask so he becomes a UFA sooner.

If his contract isn't going to include UFA years, I'm not sure why the Flames need to go long term at all, if the dollars aren't good.

If he wants the security of a long term deal, he needs to give the Flames something in return. Either UFA years or a good AAV.

[Toonage]

Eric Francis said there is no way its more than 5 years. I believe he guaranteed it. So I'll just mark 5 down in ink...

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

There is no way Tkachuk is getting $9M or more a year.

Edit: Let me re-phrase that. If he signs an 8 year deal it could be possible. There is no way he gets 9M a year on a 5 or 6 year deal which takes him to his prime years and free agency. If that is what his ask is he can sit or you trade him. I think he comes in on a 6 year deal at 7.5M per.

Explain why.

Matthews (same draft) just signed a 5 year deal at 11.5 per...but there is "no way" Tkachuk signs a 5 year 9 per deal and he has actually outscored Matthews?

OK then.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Explain why.

Matthews (same draft) just signed a 5 year deal at 11.5 per...but there is "no way" Tkachuk signs a 5 year 9 per deal and he has actually outscored Matthews?

OK then.

For one, BT is not Dubas. Second, Matthew Tkachuk is not on the same tier is Austin Matthews as a player. Matthews is going to be a 100+ point centre, Tkachuk is more of an 80 point winger. Even at that most of us agreed the Matthews contract is terrible given its term.

[Winsor_Pilates]

What were Tkachuk's PP points vs 5on5 points last season?

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

What were Tkachuk's PP points vs 5on5 points last season?

Flames' even-strength points leaders:

1. Gaudreau (72 points + 27 PP points)
2. Monahan (59 points + 23 PP points)
3. Tkachuk (53 points + 24 PP points)
4. Lindholm (48 points + 26 PP points)
5. Giordano (47 points + 21 PP points)
6. Backlund (43 points + 2 PP points)

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

For one, BT is not Dubas. Second, Matthew Tkachuk is not on the same tier is Austin Matthews as a player. Matthews is going to be a 100+ point centre, Tkachuk is more of an 80 point winger. Even at that most of us agreed the Matthews contract is terrible given its term.

Agreed.

Which is why over the next 5 years, a 9 million dollar per, would pay him 12.5 million dollars less than Matthews.

How much do you think marner will sign for?

[Erick Estrada]

If Tkachuk wants $9.5 million a season I start shopping him around the league because he's not a $9.5 million player. He is a really good complementary player that does a lot of things well but one thing he doesn't is one of the most important things which is skating. Not going to get overly excited about this as we aren't privy to the negotiations and don't know what the team/player are looking at in regards to term, etc.

[Flamenspiel]

I see no comparable between Mathews and Tkatchuk, including this playoff year. If he insists on 9.5, then you have your trading chip for a first line centre. You could then talk about names like Couturier and so on.

[CN10]

I hope to be pleasantly surprised by the deal that Treliving gets done with Tkachuk, but with a lot of the other RFA's getting crazy money lately I wonder how we will be able to get the type of value we've seen our GM get for Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm & Giordano. I still think he compares with notable unsigned winger RFA's from this year closer to Connor or Boeser, than to Rantenen, Marner, and Laine.

Riskiest move is a 4 year deal to cover the Gio & Johnny window at a low AAV to free up money to round out the rest of the roster then try to re-sign him prior to UFA with some of the money Neal (leaving) & Gio (hometown discount final contract?) free up. I also see a 5 year working well this same strategy of going for it now and risking losing Tkachuk to UFA (though Backlund's 5.35M comes off the books after year 5). I don't expect the Flames or Tkachuk to push for anything above a 6 year deal.

His ask can be 9.5M sure; that was around the same figure we heard from Gio's group. My guess is Tre plays hard ball on the Gio/Johnny # and Tkachuk ends up at 6.75M x 5. I would personally prefer more years as I am not sure Gaudreau ends up staying here after his deal is done but its hard to argue against trying to drive down the short-medium term cost in the next few year by reducing term.

[burn_this_city]

$8.25MM x 6

[flamesfever]

I would guess his salary range should be $6.5 - 7. 0 x 6 to 8 years. His skating is not elite, and with his rough style I think he is vulnerable to injury.