My Prediction for the 2021-22 season

[Sofa GM]

Originally Posted by stang

Go read his Twitter, he’s tweaking it if something doesn’t fit how he thinks it should be. “Oh hey I did this but it looks weird so let me adjust it” No clue how he’s gets his numbers, how he weighs them, or how he adjusts them. Just know he does.

Last year Tanev was a super star and the year before that he was “replacement level”

which one is he?

Fitting data is kind of part of statistical analysis but whatever, being Tanev was playing with Quinn Hughes I would guess the truth may be a little closer to this years data.

You expect speedbag Nurse to maintain a 10% shooting percentage this year or regress back to his normal 5% ish…… which one is he?

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by stang

How does Mcdavid masking deficiencies make Calgary have a good defence?

Do I have to spell it out for you?

I answered yes that Calgary’s defense is better, and that the Oilers can only win games riding the coattails of McDavid’s offense

[stang]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

Do I have to spell it out for you?

I answered yes that Calgary’s defense is better, and that the Oilers can only win games riding the coattails of McDavid’s offense

The question was do you think the Flames have a strong defence. Had nothing to do with the Oilers, which is why I wasn’t sure why you went on a tangent about Mcdavid.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by stang

Bahaha ok then.

Well, how can I argue with that?

[stang]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Well, how can I argue with that?

You’re clearly delusional or drunk, no point in arguing.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by stang

Well I’ll base it off how they play this season instead of some hippy dippy war charts. Even with our “sham” defense I still think we end up above the flames. And I really dont see how flames defense is any better.

You are in denial. The Oilers have the worst group at playing defence in the NHL. Everybody can see this but you. Trying to say the Flames defence isn't better when it comes to actual defence is comical!

[Sofa GM]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

You are in denial. The Oilers have the worst group at playing defence in the NHL. Everybody can see this but you. Trying to say the Flames defence isn't better when it comes to actual defence is comical!

The fan boys will never get it….. still caught in the 80s with KLo and Katz cause they know a thing or two about winning by running full gun offence and don’t worry about defence. Trying to have Ole Stink Eye stop enough pucks to win a 6-5 game. The Oilers defence is a complete tire fire, from the value of the contracts to the quality of the players, it truly lives up to the continuous No Good standards the Oilers set and maintain. Complete joke of a team.

[activeStick]

August is the time this happens annually.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

There is not one definition

But for me, it’s the guy that are on your top line, your number 1 dman, on the #1 PP and starting goalie

For the Flames it would be Johnny, Tkachuk, Lindholm, unfortunately Monahan and of course Markstrom. Nobody on defense now.

Coleman to me starts as an important complimentary piece but could easily grow into a core player. If he replicates or improves on his TB performance while holding down a top six role he becomes core IMO.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by saillias

I subbed to Jfresh's patreon (the guy making all the player cards we keep seeing) just to get a full picture of the Flames.

His model is pretty high on the team relative to the mood of the fanbase. I'm not sure if he's good with having his paywalled visuals shared but it has our forwards ranked 13th, defense 16th (but 7th defensively) and goaltending is surprisingly our weak spot at 19th.

Other interesting points are that our PK projects to be 1st and our forwards are ranked 3rd defensively. We are projected to have 98 points.

98 points....hello Snek!

[dino7c]

Flames will allow fewer goals than the Oilers...wanna bet Stang? That is the job of dmen fyi, defending

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Flames will allow fewer goals than the Oilers...wanna bet Stang? That is the job of dmen fyi, defending

I would prefer whatever combination of goals for versus goals against resulted in the largest positive difference between the two.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Coleman to me starts as an important complimentary piece but could easily grow into a core player. If he replicates or improves on his TB performance while holding down a top six role he becomes core IMO.

Reminiscent of the Conroy acquisition. A complementary player on another team that blossoms with increased responsibility.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by stang

Go read his Twitter, he’s tweaking it if something doesn’t fit how he thinks it should be. “Oh hey I did this but it looks weird so let me adjust it” No clue how he’s gets his numbers, how he weighs them, or how he adjusts them. Just know he does.

Last year Tanev was a super star and the year before that he was “replacement level”

which one is he?

I don't think it's the same argument.

Tanev surprised people by breaking a trend when he changed teams. I think that certainly brings into question whether situations (linemates and what team you play for) have a bigger determining factor on these things than we to this point understand.

But that doesn't mean the assessment of Tanev's last three years in Vancouver is wrong.

Take Nurse for example. Pretty easy to look up pretty much all of the shot metric stats on web sites and see that he's between 155 and 175th in all prevention categories.

So to see bad defensive numbers on a chart like that is pretty obvious.

But will he be bad? Not necessarily, but I think throwing out the charts themselves because of an example or two where the player went the other way is akin to getting everyone to jump off a building because one guy did it without breaking his legs.

[stang]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

You are in denial. The Oilers have the worst group at playing defence in the NHL. Everybody can see this but you. Trying to say the Flames defence isn't better when it comes to actual defence is comical!

Ahhh I see a bit of confusion, I wasn’t trying to compare oil vs flames in that statement, I meant I don’t see how the flames defence is any better then last year. I’m thinking it took a step back.

[stang]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Flames will allow fewer goals than the Oilers...wanna bet Stang? That is the job of dmen fyi, defending

I proposed a who will finish ahead bet already.

[Vinny01]

Here is how I see the Pacific right now.

Top tier
Vegas - they stand alone at the top as they have made the 3rd round or better in 3 of their 4 years in the league. Losing Fleury in that room can be a big blow. Nolan Patrick will be an interesting player to watch as he gets a fresh start and could get a prime opportunity with a lack of center depth in Vegas.

Mid Tier
Edmonton- I think their goaltending and defense are too suspect to have them as a lock in the top tier. I think those areas are so bad they could miss the playoffs altogether. That said this is the best their forwards have looked in years and they have 2 of the very best players in the game. I see them competing for the division if they get the same goaltending performance as last year

Calgary- this is a very mid pack team who may have enough to compete for the division if all goes well. We have seen this team win the west when things went right but that was 2 years ago and questions remain about just how good their top players really are. They have the most decorated and best coach under this era of hockey so the time to win is now or it could be blow up central

Vancouver- made some pretty big moves. Flushed away future cap flexibility to dump bad contracts and picks for win now players. Garland adds to an already impressive top 6 and OEL was once a franchise player who they are banking on needing a change of scenery to get back to that level.

Seattle- I think their move in net coupled with a decent group of players with a chip on their shoulder could lead to this being a really tough team to play against. I could see them having a rough go as well but I like this roster on paper more than I liked the Knights before their first season.

LA- I think the Kings moves this summer, combined with their solid prospect base and existing veterans put themselves in a spot where they could be competitive this season. I almost had them in the bottom but they are an improved team who have some X factor prospects.

Bottom tier
Anaheim- if they get Eichel while keeping Zegras I could see them moving to the upper tier but short of that this is a bad team. Gibson could be a difference maker but they are too weak in other parts of the roster. They are still in rebuild mode

San Jose- this team is one of if not the biggest dumpster fires in the NHL. Littered with horrible contracts and problem players. I think they are in a good spot for Wright and Bedard over the next couple of years.

1 playoff lock, 2 bottom feeders and 5 teams fighting for 2-4 spots

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by stang

You’re clearly delusional or drunk, no point in arguing.

Yeah? Who, according to you, is the best Oiler defenceman (at defending)?

[mile]

I'm not worried about the backend. Assuming Mackey and Stone sign, there are enough choices for Sutter to tinker and figure out what works best. I'm not expecting much offense but will be happy if they can defend by committee and keep pucks out of the net.

Still need some more firepower upfront though. Even if they keep the goals against down, I'm not sure if they will score enough to win most nights. The top 9 is still too similar to last season.

Kings 2012 Top 9 Forward Playoff Scorers:
Kopitar, Brown, Richards, Williams, Carter, Penner, Lewis, King, Stoll

Kings 2014:
Kopitar, Williams, Carter, Gaborik, Brown, Toffoli, Pearson, King, Richards

Current Flames:
Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Lindholm, Monahan, Mangiapane, Coleman, Backlund, Dube, Lucic or Pitlick


Still needs another body to push Lucic or Pitlick out.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Seattle has at the very least as good or better goalies and a defense lead by Gio that would appear to be more solid than the one that Calgary is putting out to start the season.

How bad did you think Gio was last season?

Lol