Russia invades Ukraine

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by opendoor

That wasn't the guy the funeral was for. The funeral was for Dmytro Kotsyubaylo, who was Ukraine's youngest battalion commander who was killed in Bakhmut. Though he was also a leader of the Right Sector, a far-right nationalist organization, so I'm not sure why Finland's PM wants to be associated with that. Though they've apparently cleaned up their ranks a bit in recent years.

Wow my bad.

[JohnnyB]

Zelensky meeting with Xi after Xi meets with Putin.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1635241878693220354

[burn_this_city]

Nazis in Ukraine was always 95% propaganda to undermine the revolution.

He was the leader of a multiethnic volunteer battalion and his wife is a deputy on Kyiv city council. He was venerated as a hero after fighting for his entire adult life against the Russians.

[FlamesAddiction]

Interesting about Xi. I wonder if he is proposing a a take-it or leave-it offer before they get onside to supply Russia with lethal assistance.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Interesting about Xi. I wonder if he is proposing a a take-it or leave-it offer before they get onside to supply Russia with lethal assistance.

Or visiting with Zelensky to show Putin he holds the cards

[GGG]

The interesting thing here is that China has the leverage to crush Russia with sanctions. They also benefit from having a strong Russia. They may be able to dictate terms to Russia at this point. They likely can cut off Iranian weapons to Russia as well.

So how big is Chinas desire to present itself as peacemaker to the world? Would Ukraine accept 2021 boarders and no NATO? Could China force Russia to concede that? I don’t think that Ukraine accepts anything less than 2021 boarders. But that would be a pretty big loss for Russia to swallow.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by GGG

The interesting thing here is that China has the leverage to crush Russia with sanctions. They also benefit from having a strong Russia. They may be able to dictate terms to Russia at this point. They likely can cut off Iranian weapons to Russia as well.

So how big is Chinas desire to present itself as peacemaker to the world? Would Ukraine accept 2021 boarders and no NATO? Could China force Russia to concede that? I don’t think that Ukraine accepts anything less than 2021 boarders. But that would be a pretty big loss for Russia to swallow.

When you say 2021 borders, do you mean Russia keeps Crimea? Donetsk and Luhansk were rebel held since about 2015. So do you include those regions?

I think Ukraine wants 1992 borders and nothing less.

[The Fisher Account]

China would be crazy to side with Russia.

They import nearly all their energy and food. Slap similar sanctions on China that the west slapped on Russia and 500M people die in 6 months.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by GGG

The interesting thing here is that China has the leverage to crush Russia with sanctions. They also benefit from having a strong Russia. They may be able to dictate terms to Russia at this point. They likely can cut off Iranian weapons to Russia as well.

So how big is Chinas desire to present itself as peacemaker to the world? Would Ukraine accept 2021 boarders and no NATO? Could China force Russia to concede that? I don’t think that Ukraine accepts anything less than 2021 boarders. But that would be a pretty big loss for Russia to swallow.

With Zelensky in power, I can't see how Ukraine would accept 2021 borders and no NATO. That would be a bitter pill for them to swallow.

He might accept 2021 borders with NATO membership, but to give up Crimea and no to NATO? That would be a huge loss for them, I think.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

When you say 2021 borders, do you mean Russia keeps Crimea? Donetsk and Luhansk were rebel held since about 2015. So do you include those regions?

I think Ukraine wants 1992 borders and nothing less.

Yes that is what I meant by 2021. Would going back to where the latest expansion started be enough to end the war for Ukraine or it’s US and Euro support. Russia certainly isn’t taking less than that at this point.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by GGG

Yes that is what I meant by 2021. Would going back to where the latest expansion started be enough to end the war for Ukraine or it’s US and Euro support. Russia certainly isn’t taking less than that at this point.

Ukrainians will not accept that. All that would be is a waste of lives so that they can do it again in 5 years

https://kyivindependent.com/news-fee...al-concessions

[afc wimbledon]

Ukraine is destroying Russia anyway, even if they themselves are mortally wounded in the act, that we are wondering if the UA should withdraw from some pissant little town no one had ever heard of before 2023 because Russia has spent 2 or 3 months advancing maybe a couple of miles at a cost of tens of thousands of troops isnt a sign that Russia is winning, it's a sign Russia is done, they have nothing left, the Russian Army is throwing everything they have to capture a town the size of Swift Current and they are barely able to manage it

[edslunch]

If Ukraine was somehow forced to accept 2021 borders it had better be with full reparations and NATO membership or at least ironclad US/NATO guarantees.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by GGG

The interesting thing here is that China has the leverage to crush Russia with sanctions. They also benefit from having a strong Russia. They may be able to dictate terms to Russia at this point. They likely can cut off Iranian weapons to Russia as well.

So how big is Chinas desire to present itself as peacemaker to the world? Would Ukraine accept 2021 boarders and no NATO? Could China force Russia to concede that? I don’t think that Ukraine accepts anything less than 2021 boarders. But that would be a pretty big loss for Russia to swallow.

Zelensky already rejected that proposal previously and Ukrainian public opinion polling showed overwhelmingly they would not accept the 2021 borders.

With all the military aide incoming to Ukraine doubling down on a surge for an offensive, and an exhausted Russian military, I do not see the 2021 boarders being acceptable to Ukraine or NATO atm.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Zelensky already rejected that proposal previously and Ukrainian public opinion polling showed overwhelmingly they would not accept the 2021 borders.

With all the military aide incoming to Ukraine doubling down on a surge for an offensive, and an exhausted Russian military, I do not see the 2021 boarders being acceptable to Ukraine or NATO atm.

I'd caution a little on the exhausted Russian military issue. While some estimates put their losses at 240,000+, Ukraine has lost most of their best soldiers too and western estimates peg their losses at about 20,000. Most of the info we get on casualties is Ukrainian army info, which is very much also propaganda. Ukraine is hurting a fair bit and probably doesn't have anywhere near the capability of drafting more men like Putin does. Having said that. Momentum is everything and if they can get off on the right foot and Putin can't manage to get more lethal aid from Iran or China, I'd say Ukraine has an OK shot at getting some territory back

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

I'd caution a little on the exhausted Russian military issue. While some estimates put their losses at 240,000+, Ukraine has lost most of their best soldiers too and western estimates peg their losses at about 20,000. Most of the info we get on casualties is Ukrainian army info, which is very much also propaganda. Ukraine is hurting a fair bit and probably doesn't have anywhere near the capability of drafting more men like Putin does. Having said that. Momentum is everything and if they can get off on the right foot and Putin can't manage to get more lethal aid from Iran or China, I'd say Ukraine has an OK shot at getting some territory back

I thought that because Ukraine declared martial law, they basically have 1 million men they can call on if needed.

Every Ukrainian callup will be 10x as motivated as a Russian grunt being sent to some town he doesn't care about, in another country, to die.

Plus the Ukrainian military is being trained and supported by NATO. NATO war tactics will always beat the Soviet doctrine of throwing meat at a problem.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I thought that because Ukraine declared martial law, they basically have 1 million men they can call on if needed.

Every Ukrainian callup will be 10x as motivated as a Russian grunt being sent to some town he doesn't care about, in another country, to die.

Plus the Ukrainian military is being trained and supported by NATO. NATO war tactics will always beat the Soviet doctrine of throwing meat at a problem.

Drafted and quickly trained will never be as good the war tested troops they need to replace. Better than the Russians for sure though.

I think to retake significant areas of land they would need air superiority and at this point NATO doesn’t seem to want to provide that.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

I'd caution a little on the exhausted Russian military issue. While some estimates put their losses at 240,000+, Ukraine has lost most of their best soldiers too and western estimates peg their losses at about 20,000. Most of the info we get on casualties is Ukrainian army info, which is very much also propaganda. Ukraine is hurting a fair bit and probably doesn't have anywhere near the capability of drafting more men like Putin does. Having said that. Momentum is everything and if they can get off on the right foot and Putin can't manage to get more lethal aid from Iran or China, I'd say Ukraine has an OK shot at getting some territory back

Yes the Ukrainians are hurting in terms of casualties, but the Ukrainians are probably taking more casualties in Bakhmut since they are holding forces back and doing things like rationing shell consumption/sending troops off to get trained so they don't have the force concentration at the front to hold Russians off better than they currently are. General Zaluzhny has asked forgiveness to the frontline troops bearing the brunt of the casualties for this.

It might be understating it a bit to say Ukraine doesn't have the capability to draft more men, they have a draft system in place that they are not really using it they way Russia is because they have a lot of volunteers and they have a much longer training lead time. They also don't throw men immediately into the fight and are holding them back to get them trained in UK, US, and other NATO countries for the push; Just the UK saying they will train over 25K+ troops this year and are looking to increase that number. This doesn't count other NATO countries training programs.

Thing is I don't see Russia improvement their training for their conscripts/Wagnerites any time soon so don't really see the loss ratios increasing in Russia's favor. Even their best tank divisions (1st Guards Tank Army) are getting old BMP-1s and T-62s (based on OSINT) which should make the Russian loss ratios even worse when the Western armor arrives. There have also been reports from Russian milbloggers of mutinies with several units (like the 155th separate marine brigade, etc) refusing to fight after having suffering heavy losses, being reconstituted (filled with replacements), and thrown back into the front multiple times. What will barely armed and trained conscripts do except keep dying at current or higher than current ratios vs. Ukrainians? That to me says exhaustion for Russia.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Ukrainians will not accept that. All that would be is a waste of lives so that they can do it again in 5 years

https://kyivindependent.com/news-fee...al-concessions

That's the thing that so many who advocate for some kind of peace deal seem to be forgetting. Any ceasefire agreement just gives Russia time to rearm so they can try another full scale invasion in 5-10 years, why would Ukrainians accept that? There is no long term peace option with a terrorist state like Russia, the only option for real peace is the destruction of their military complex and/or full regime change

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

That's the thing that so many who advocate for some kind of peace deal seem to be forgetting. Any ceasefire agreement just gives Russia time to rearm so they can try another full scale invasion in 5-10 years, why would Ukrainians accept that? There is no long term peace option with a terrorist state like Russia, the only option for real peace is the destruction of their military complex and/or full regime change

Neutering Russia isn't going to happen. They're nuclear, and that cat is out of the bag. Peace will come from strengthening Ukraine.