Electric vehicle war, is gas soon to be toast?

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Hack&Lube

The big thing is that Chinese EV companies haven't even matured and broken into the North American market. Their huge install base means a huge test bed to develop and mature technologies. The huge installed market base also means they have economy of scale to mass produce as well as trial innovations. Once that happens, it will be like the 60s/70s when cheaper but more innovative Japanese imports disrupted the North American market and dominated.

There's basically zero chance that the US is going to allow Chinese EVs to be imported and undercut domestic auto manufacturing. Japanese automakers got around that by building North American manufacturing facilities, but the current geopolitical context makes that a pretty unlikely scenario for Chinese companies.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Hack&Lube

The big thing is that Chinese EV companies haven't even matured and broken into the North American market. Their huge install base means a huge test bed to develop and mature technologies. The huge installed market base also means they have economy of scale to mass produce as well as trial innovations. Once that happens, it will be like the 60s/70s when cheaper but more innovative Japanese imports disrupted the North American market and dominated.

The cars being made in China are both cheaper and better already than what North American companies make and they have no legacy supply chain or work force transition to fund. Here's a chart that sums up what's happening that very few auto executives have noticed edit: oops, missing graph labels

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by opendoor

There's basically zero chance that the US is going to allow Chinese EVs to be imported and undercut domestic auto manufacturing. Japanese automakers got around that by building North American manufacturing facilities, but the current geopolitical context makes that a pretty unlikely scenario for Chinese companies.

That's missing the context that US sales are shrinking faster than global vehicle sales. Just 7 years ago there were 17.5M cars sold in the US. Last year there were 13.7M cars sold and it's expected to keep dropping. GM sells the majority of it's vehicles outside the US where that protection won't help. Like it or not, it's a global commodity that the US consumers don't dominate anymore. That leaves precious little leverage to control production.

Japan had nowhere else to sell cars back then. The world's a different place

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[chedder]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

The cars being made in China are both cheaper and better already than what North American companies make and they have no legacy supply chain or work force transition to fund. Here's a chart that sums up what's happening that very few auto executives have noticed edit: oops, missing graph labels

Just out of curiosity, why do you think the Chinese ev's are better than North American ones? And what does that chart mean? Edit saw your chart edit

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by chedder

Just out of curiosity, why do you think the Chinese ev's are better than North American ones? And what does that chart mean? Edit saw your chart edit

The quality and performance capacity of vehicles has traditionally been due to the reliability and performance of the engine and drive train. The cost was brought down due to the manufacturing of thousands of different parts in a very complex supply chain based largely around Western manufacturers. It's why no new entrants really made it big in the last number of decades and why Tesla was so unusual. China could never make it in that environment.

With the advent of the electric vehicle the quality and performance is almost entirely due to the battery and the software controlling it. China owns almost the entire supply chain, and owns most of the major innovations. I could go in for a long time, but China is rolling out most of the important battery advancements and already has the cheapest and most robust supply chain for batteries.

BYD, Geely (who owns Volvo), and Nio all have attractive and solidly built vehicles that are cheaper and just as good if not better than what Ford, GM, Stellantis or even vw make.



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[chedder]

thanks for this. Yeah, forgot Volvo was Chinese owned. The polestar seems pretty cool and, if they still have historic Volvo quality, should be a good car. My only fear would be, as with Tesla, build quality. I guess time will tell how all of these hold up.

[Fuzz]

I expect lots of tariffs to get pilled on these. No way western countries can, and should be expected to compete with lax environmental standards while they pay more for green power. That,and essentially slave labour make it pretty easy to understand why China can build cheeply. I won't be supporting that, and anyone buying an EV for green reasons shouldn't either.

[timun]

Chinese cars could cost fifty bucks and run on non-polluting pixie dust: I would still never buy one. #### the CCP.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I expect lots of tariffs to get pilled on these. No way western countries can, and should be expected to compete with lax environmental standards while they pay more for green power. That,and essentially slave labour make it pretty easy to understand why China can build cheeply. I won't be supporting that, and anyone buying an EV for green reasons shouldn't either.

I'll take cheap Chinese vehicles vs signing up for a 10 year financing plan to be able to afford a vehicle from a US legacy automaker.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

I'll take cheap Chinese vehicles vs signing up for a 10 year financing plan to be able to afford a vehicle from a US legacy automaker.

So when we only have a choice of a vehicle made that excessively pollutes our land, water and air while those building it spend most of their lives in a factory for a pittance, that's just fine?? No wonder the world is ####ed.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

So when we only have a choice of a vehicle made that excessively pollutes our land, water and air while those building it spend most of their lives in a factory for a pittance, that's just fine?? No wonder the world is ####ed.

I thought we were all going to be driving EV green machines. Why are the Chinese cars going to be excessively polluting our land?

[Fuzz]

Because their factories have lax environmental standards. You think making these things happens with cinnamon and rainbows?

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

So when we only have a choice of a vehicle made that excessively pollutes our land, water and air while those building it spend most of their lives in a factory for a pittance, that's just fine?? No wonder the world is ####ed.

Not that I don't agree with you, I very much do, but the bulk of our modern technologized society has been built on the backs of those living in factories for a pittance, and the Earth's ecosystems. Everything from our phones to our PCs to our clothes are built by labour in countries that largely lack environmental & worker protections.

[Fuzz]

Right, and now that is changing with good pay for employees, good working conditions, better environmental standards....we know better now. So let's act better too

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Right, and now that is changing with good pay for employees, good working conditions, better environmental standards....we know better now. So let's act better too

Are you suggesting that we stop importing goods from countries where workers make very little? It may seem like the morally correct choice but it would instantly implode our economy...

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Because their factories have lax environmental standards. You think making these things happens with cinnamon and rainbows?

Most of the components in the US legacy vehicles are built overseas in those factories that you despise anyways. They are shipped to North America and slapped together here. I really don't think you are being some sort of saviour by purchasing American over Chinese.

[Street Pharmacist]

I think these fairly simplistic ways of looking at it. There are a good number of inputs into the cost of an EV beyond environmental laws and labor standards (though I agree China has a ways to go). A good chunk of the cost is beyond that with material contracts, land development, R&D, manufacturing, workforce ability, etc.

I'm sure because I harp on it so much some think I'm cheering for the Chinese. I'm not, for reasons you've all mentioned above. However, the reality is that the head start they've got is really showing now and I fear that the time to combat the growing lead is shrinking

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[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Are you suggesting that we stop importing goods from countries where workers make very little? It may seem like the morally correct choice but it would instantly implode our economy...

No, but the auto industry is a huge employer, and they already do limit imports with tariffs. I'm suggesting these will increase, and should. And if we don't, we won't have an industry for long.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

No, but the auto industry is a huge employer, and they already do limit imports with tariffs. I'm suggesting these will increase, and should. And if we don't, we won't have an industry for long.

I guess what I'm getting at is that our market is shrinking, and the ICE market is shrinking even faster. Import tariffs therefore do little to keep our industry alive

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

So when we only have a choice of a vehicle made that excessively pollutes our land, water and air while those building it spend most of their lives in a factory for a pittance, that's just fine?? No wonder the world is ####ed.

We could start by worrying about the 80% of our possessions that already fit into this category.