Will the Flames put it together?

[Textcritic]

Back on topic, please. Let's leave the internet-inspired psychoanalyses out of it.

[stamps]

I have a good feeling about this year .... we win the Stanley Cup ... Nenshi leaves the continent for a month in disgust ..... we sign an arena deal while he is tubing down a river in south east Asia .....

[zamler]

lol

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Five-hole

That was a lot of bluster to say absolutely nothing.

As it happens, I am not the least bit surprised the Flames are what they are. I hoped they would be more this year, but they aren't, at least not yet. I'm not surprised because this is a team that exceeded expectations last year. There's a large body of evidence to suggest that a team with expectations has a very different experience than one without.

Last year, we were fresh off of finishing 4th worst or whatever it was. We picked up a new goalie and a new coach, but by and large we were the same team. Any expectations for last season's team really should be described as hope, not expectations. And despite the low bar, the team barely secured a wild card spot after an insanely hot streak to end the season. We were summarily swept in the first round.

The changes this year were a new #4D and a new goalie, but few seriously expected Smith to be anything more than a lateral move. And yet, fans, media, and team alike expected much more. They expected to compete for the division and likely win a round or even two in the playoffs.

However, we're still by and large the same team. Our core, outside of Gio and Backlund (both of whom have arguably taken a step back this year), are all under 25. A core that young which has never been expected to be a good team is going to have a lot of growing pains. And lo and behold...

Expectations have a crazy effect on teams. Look up north. The fact that we are treading water at this point is a positive sign.

There. Now you.

I disagree with so many points in this post that I see no reason to even bother replying.

And the thread has turned into a shouting match, so I'm done.

[Frank MetaMusil]

Fans have too high of expectations for a team who, as of today, won't be drafting until round 3 this offseason?

Ok then.

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I disagree with so many points in this post that I see no reason to even bother replying.

And the thread has turned into a shouting match, so I'm done.

[Loyal and True]

Originally Posted by monkeyman

I don't think my expectations were out of line with most fans:

-36 points after 30 games, on pace for 98 or 99 points.

-stronger second half of season once Smith, Jagr and Hamonic found their groove, and the flames would end up over 100 points with a chance for home ice in 1st round.

-positive goal differential +4 (at 30 games)

-beat Edmonton on Home Ice

-more wins at home and fewer on the road.

-Smith .915 or .920 save percentage.

-Lack .900 or .905 save percentage, or else they would have to send him down and bring up Gillies.

-Jankowski to get called up early on and Glass to be sent down. It seemed likely that Bennett would eventually move to the wing and that Stajan would sit half the games to make room for young guys coming up (provided they earn the ice time).

-Hathaway/Wotherspoon/Andersson to get spot duty when injuries inevitably occur.

-Kulak/Lazar to move up the depth chart ahead of Bartkowski/Freddie Hamilton.

-Jagr to miss fewer games, and the 3rd liners to have closer to 16 points each by the 30 game mark. At the same time I expected fewer goals from the top line.

-Brouwer to be an expensive 4th line player, but would at least perform well enough in that role to make the 4th line effective.

-PP of 20% and PK 82%, both to be in top half of the league.

-more 3-2 games fewer high scoring games. I expected fewer shots for and against but I expected us to generally outshoot opponents.

[Loyal and True]

Look at naturalstattrick.com after 30 games. They track High Danger Scoring Chances For and Against (HDCF%). They also track actual High Danger Goals For and Against (HDGF%).

Defense at Even Strength-
Gio and Dougie have 60% ratio HDCF%. 123 chances for and 83/84 chances against (+40). Both are near top of the league. They are also right at the top in Corsi %. They are damn good.

But they have been extremely unlucky (Gio 32% and Dougie 39%) on HDGF%. Gio is -7 goals and Dougie is -5. The dangerous puck tends to go only in one net (theirs).

With normal luck, it could have swung the other way and they could be +4. That could have made a +10 goal differential and easily given us an extra win or two.

Forwards at even strength-

The top 9 all have High Danger Scoring Chance % between 52% and 62% (range +7 to +30).

3M line is near top of league in Corsi and strong HDCF% 52% to 56% (Frolik +7, Tkachuk +14, Backlund +11).

They are good, but extremely unlucky on HDGF%. Backlund is -5 (36.84%), Frolik is -9 (26.32%) and Tkachuk is -1 (46.67%)

Conclusion-
The Flames best players are getting more than their share of High Danger Chances but they are a bit snake bitten. If they keep this up it should go the other way over the next 52 games.

[blender]

Originally Posted by Loyal and True

Look at naturalstattrick.com after 30 games. They track High Danger Scoring Chances For and Against (HDCF%). They also track actual High Danger Goals For and Against (HDGF%).

Defense at Even Strength-
Gio and Dougie have 60% ratio HDCF%. 123 chances for and 83/84 chances against (+40). Both are near top of the league. They are also right at the top in Corsi %. They are damn good.

But they have been extremely unlucky (Gio 32% and Dougie 39%) on HDGF%. Gio is -7 goals and Dougie is -5. The dangerous puck tends to go only in one net (theirs).

With normal luck, it could have swung the other way and they could be +4. That could have made a +10 goal differential and easily given us an extra win or two.

Forwards at even strength-

The top 9 all have High Danger Scoring Chance % between 52% and 62% (range +7 to +30).

3M line is near top of league in Corsi and strong HDCF% 52% to 56% (Frolik +7, Tkachuk +14, Backlund +11).

They are good, but extremely unlucky on HDGF%. Backlund is -5 (36.84%), Frolik is -9 (26.32%) and Tkachuk is -1 (46.67%)

Conclusion-
The Flames best players are getting more than their share of High Danger Chances but they are a bit snake bitten. If they keep this up it should go the other way over the next 52 games.

The glass half full part of me sees this as encouraging and anticipates the remainder of the season.

The glass half empty thinks it is all a function of how much our bottom six forwards have sucked.

If anything, I think the emergence of the third line is the single most positive recent development and bodes well for the rest of the season.

[CroFlames]

I was glass half full guy until the Oilers and Flyers game, but mostly the Oilers game. All the positives in underlying stats made sense before, and there were several bright spots on the team. But the gross incompetence when it come to being prepared for games falls on the coach IMO and they've come out sleeping more games than not.

Now I'm the glass half empty guy. Too many times this team comes out flat, the special teams is horrid, and a few individuals (Smith, Mony) are saving this team from being sub .500 which is good for 13th. The coach has to be fired for the player personnel to reach its full potential.

This team should be challenging for 1st in the division, especially given how sloppy the teams in the division are (save LA). Scraping and scrounging just to limp into the 2nd wild card is a disappointment, any way you slice it.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I was glass half full guy until the Oilers and Flyers game, but mostly the Oilers game. All the positives in underlying stats made sense before, and there were several bright spots on the team. But the gross incompetence when it come to being prepared for games falls on the coach IMO and they've come out sleeping more games than not...

I suspect this is the case for many posters here. That game against the Oilers was terrible, and it is exacerbating all the flaws in the Flames season to date. But in the end, it was just one game. For whatever reason the Oilers are in the Flames' head, and it makes them look abominable. If all anyone watched were Games #1 and #26 this season she or he would wonder how the Flames were even capable of winning a single game. But the fact of the matter is that the Flames don't play like they play against the Oilers when facing any other team. I thought that in spite of the result it was probably good for them to mount that near comeback two Saturdays ago, if for no other reason than to help the players get out of their own head when facing the Oilers.

Otherwise, it has been a decent season. The Division is out of reach at this point, but the Flames are still very much in the mix for one of the remaining two divisional playoff positions. With how well the Flames tend to play the Kings and the Sharks, I have every expectation that they will finish better than a wildcard team.

[CroFlames]

I applaud your optimism. I don't share it.

My optimism has slowly been eroding since GG came on board, and the EDM game sealed and confirmed by doubts about his ability.

Maybe on a bigger scale, my optimism has been eroding since 1995-96. Only so much losing one fan can take I suppose, but that is a different conversation altogether.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I applaud your optimism. I don't share it.

My optimism has slowly been eroding since GG came on board, and the EDM game sealed and confirmed by doubts about his ability.

Maybe on a bigger scale, my optimism has been eroding since 1995-96. Only so much losing one fan can take I suppose, but that is a different conversation altogether.

Well, the last part is just sad. Being a fan should be fun, so I suppose if that part of it is withering, then you probably have better things to do with your time.

But the bolded part actually makes my point for me, I think. Were it a game against ANY other team, I don't believe that you would feel this strongly.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Well, the last part is just sad. Being a fan should be fun, so I suppose if that part of it is withering, then you probably have better things to do with your time.

But the bolded part actually makes my point for me, I think. Were it a game against ANY other team, I don't believe that you would feel this strongly.

While I generally tend to lean on long term statistics more than single games, I actually believe rivalry games say a lot about a team.

It's also not just about that game, it's that they've been losing to Oilers for a while now. They didn't lose for lack of caring, you could see from their late push that they really wanted to win that game. They were just the worse team on that night, and it's really hard to excuse that.

I can't see a team that constantly loses to it's biggest rival making it far in the playoffs.

Plus it was hardly just that night. They've recently looked terrible against Detroit, they looked pretty bad mostly in Philly despite winning that game and they had horrible defensive issues in Dallas. All these games pretty close to each other. And then right after they sucked again against Philly.

[stone hands]

It’s pretty easy to excuse, some times you just get beat, sucks it was by the oilers but if you gauge this hockey team based solely on how they play against one team I really don’t know what to tell ya

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Itse

While I generally tend to lean on long term statistics more than single games, I actually believe rivalry games say a lot about a team.

It's also not just about that game, it's that they've been losing to Oilers for a while now. They didn't lose for lack of caring, you could see from their late push that they really wanted to win that game. They were just the worse team on that night, and it's really hard to excuse that.

I can't see a team that constantly loses to it's biggest rival making it far in the playoffs.

Plus it was hardly just that night. They've recently looked terrible against Detroit, they looked pretty bad mostly in Philly despite winning that game and they had horrible defensive issues in Dallas. All these games pretty close to each other. And then right after they sucked again against Philly.

They won't play that rival in the POs. And they beat the team that eliminated them they last two times.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by stone hands

It’s pretty easy to excuse, some times you just get beat, sucks it was by the oilers but if you gauge this hockey team based solely on how they play against one team I really don’t know what to tell ya

I would actually agree with Itse that this is more serious than merely having a psychological block with just another team. It is troubling that the Oilers are in the Flames head, and it is absolutely something they need to get over. I think the real question here is whether or not they are capable of doing so. I happen to believe that they are.

[Classic_Sniper]

Does anyone else feel a little uneasy that the Knights are still playing at an elite level while the Ducks are almost healthy and teams like Chicago and Minnesota are hot on our tails? I’d feel better about the current scenario if we actually had our 1st and 2nd this season.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Don't we have a better record in 30 games of this year than previous years? We play better in the 2nd half.

We could be 30-0 and still have whiny posters. Just stop, and enjoy the ride. We FINALLY have a 3rd line capable of its own and a solid backup that can play whenever we need him to. That's huge.

As for the Oiler losses, who cares? They can sweep us every season if they aren't making the playoffs. I know they are key points, but does it really matter if they aren't in the race? They suck right now. They have no depth. They'll never survive the playoffs if they ever make it again.

The Flames will continue to pull it together.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Does anyone else feel a little uneasy that the Knights are still playing at an elite level while the Ducks are almost healthy and teams like Chicago and Minnesota are hot on our tails? I’d feel better about the current scenario if we actually had our 1st and 2nd this season.

I am okay with the Knights making the playoffs. Our goal should be the #3 seed to play against them. The playoffs are a whole different story.