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Old 12-04-2017, 03:02 PM   #21
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Except Vegas has had the leagues easiest schedule...billion home games and a steady diet of the Yotes
If by billion you mean 2 more away games than home games?
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Old 12-04-2017, 03:18 PM   #22
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If you were given the option to pay 45 cents to predict the outcome of a coin flip, and if correct in your prediction you win a dollar, you may lose 45 cents on the first try. You may even lose 90 cents after the second try. But if you keep betting, you'll end up ahead in the long term. This is the value of analytics. They do not describe destiny, only the likeliest result.
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Old 12-04-2017, 10:11 PM   #23
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36.3% now.
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Old 12-04-2017, 10:26 PM   #24
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If by billion you mean 2 more away games than home games?
I meant a billion home wins 10-2 at home...I think the novelty will wear off. They have played the Yotes four times.
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Old 12-05-2017, 03:53 PM   #25
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31.9% (Calgary Flames Playoff Probabilities)

https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi
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Old 12-11-2017, 09:02 AM   #26
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Brick obviously only updates when it suits his narrative. So I don't mind saying it's up to 40% and higher than Dallas.

Of course no one has any idea how they come up with these predictions so what's the point? 89% Vegas seems ill informed.

At this point of the season these numbers swing every two games, so it's silly to put much stock in it.
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Old 12-11-2017, 09:13 AM   #27
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Get 96 points and you are 99% sure to make it.

Its all you need to know.
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Old 12-11-2017, 09:28 AM   #28
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Get 96 points and you are 99% sure to make it.

Its all you need to know.
It is the Gospel of Snek.



וְהַנָּחָשׁ֙ הָיָ֣ה עָר֔וּם מִכֹּל
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Old 12-11-2017, 09:59 AM   #29
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39.8%

https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi
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Old 12-11-2017, 10:42 AM   #30
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The Athletic 63%
Sports Club Stats 33%
Hockey Viz 55%
Money Puck 42%
Corsica Hockey 59%
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Old 12-11-2017, 10:52 AM   #31
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The Athletic 63%
Sports Club Stats 33%
Hockey Viz 55%
Money Puck 42%
Corsica Hockey 59%
So basically, we are 30 games in and no one knows anything. The Flames are in a position to do well right now. Thats what matters
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Old 12-11-2017, 10:53 AM   #32
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The Athletic 63%
Sports Club Stats 33%
Hockey Viz 55%
Money Puck 42%
Corsica Hockey 59%
With 30-point(!) range of distribution these numbers strike me as virtually meaningless.
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Old 12-11-2017, 11:31 AM   #33
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With 30-point(!) range of distribution these numbers strike me as virtually meaningless.
I can't see how a team that's currently in a PO spot could be given only a 39% chance.
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Old 12-11-2017, 11:38 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by united View Post
The Athletic 63%
Sports Club Stats 33%
Hockey Viz 55%
Money Puck 42%
Corsica Hockey 59%
The reason for the spread is all based on method used.

I know Sports Club Stats uses goal differential as a predictor for future match-ups. The Flames are currently -6 in that category, so the simulator does not think Calgary is very good and will lose more games int he future.

I would guess the Athletic and Corsica hockey are likely using some form of advanced stats, which show the Flames are underperforming a bit. Hence, these guys give the Flames a much better chance as they are winning more in their future simulated games.

Hockey Viz and Money Puck, I don't know, so I can't say for sure.

Long story short - all these numbers are "good" so long as you think their forecasting method is accurate. Think goal difference will predict future performance? Use Sports Club stats. Think advanced stats can predict future results? Use Corsica hockey. Think all this prediction stuff is hooey and you just need a set amount of points at season's end? Use the snake.
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Old 12-11-2017, 11:48 AM   #35
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We need to come up with a CP playoff odds.. I'll say flames 70% chance right now.
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Old 12-11-2017, 12:05 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by mrkajz44 View Post
The reason for the spread is all based on method used.

I know Sports Club Stats uses goal differential as a predictor for future match-ups. The Flames are currently -6 in that category, so the simulator does not think Calgary is very good and will lose more games int he future.

I would guess the Athletic and Corsica hockey are likely using some form of advanced stats, which show the Flames are underperforming a bit. Hence, these guys give the Flames a much better chance as they are winning more in their future simulated games.

Hockey Viz and Money Puck, I don't know, so I can't say for sure.

Long story short - all these numbers are "good" so long as you think their forecasting method is accurate. Think goal difference will predict future performance? Use Sports Club stats. Think advanced stats can predict future results? Use Corsica hockey. Think all this prediction stuff is hooey and you just need a set amount of points at season's end? Use the snake.
This is exactly it.

The Athletic is player advanced stats-based. Player x has advanced stats of x and he plays x% of the team's ice time. Combine all players on a team for team strength of x. This also accounts for injuries.

Corsica and HockeyViz use team-level shot-based advanced stats.

MoneyPuck uses team-level expected goals-based advanced stats, discounting the first 20 games of the season and weighing all overtimes as 50/50. So their model is using an extremely small sample size at this point of the season.

Hockey Reference and Sports Club Stats use goal differential-based models.

Or:
Advanced stats models
63%
59%
55%
42% (first 20 games discounted)

Non-advanced stats models
40%
33%

This early in the season, there is far too much volatility in goal-based models thus I wouldn't put too much weight into them, personally. But some hate all things advanced stats so if that applies, discount those models completely. In the long run - several hundred team level games - the shot-based and goal-based models will closely match...but obviously seasons are far shorter than that.
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Last edited by united; 12-11-2017 at 12:10 PM.
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Old 12-11-2017, 06:03 PM   #37
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The Athletic 63%
Sports Club Stats 33%
Hockey Viz 55%
Money Puck 42%
Corsica Hockey 59%
If you include Playoff Probabilities of 39.8%, the average of all 6 would be
around 49%.
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Old 12-11-2017, 06:51 PM   #38
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We are winning the cup this year.
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Old 01-01-2018, 08:10 PM   #39
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25.8%

https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi
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Old 01-01-2018, 10:14 PM   #40
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These playoff predictions mean nothing. Teams go hot and cold all year long and the numbers I see in that link are pretty mis leading.

They have the Oilers at 8.7%, I feel like thatís low. They have Vegas at 99.1 and I feel like thatís high.

Either way they donít mean anything.
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