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Old 12-03-2017, 08:03 PM   #1
Brick
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Default Playoff Probabilities

https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

Flames have 38% chance of making the playoffs currently.
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Old 12-03-2017, 08:09 PM   #2
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Too early for these stats...you really think the knights are 72% for the playoffs? I don't
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Old 12-03-2017, 08:11 PM   #3
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The playoff Snake holds all answers!
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Old 12-03-2017, 08:33 PM   #4
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We have a 50% chance. We either make it, or we don't.

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Old 12-03-2017, 08:36 PM   #5
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We have a 50% chance. We either make it, or we don't.

You have a 50% chance to win the lottery. You either win it or u dont
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Old 12-03-2017, 08:53 PM   #6
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Flames 38.0% > Oilers 8.0%
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Old 12-03-2017, 10:12 PM   #7
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Too early for these stats...you really think the knights are 72% for the playoffs? I don't
The stats assume (weighted) that teams are as good as their play indicates. So the validity of that model is how well the current play predicts their future play. I think they use Goal Differential in the model rather than just record.

So like most statistical tools it's a starting point. Do the Flames have about a 38% chance of making the playoffs? That seems reasonable. Do the knights make it 3/4 times probably not but it's not lower than 50/50. Really shows how early wins and banking those points pays off.
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Old 12-03-2017, 10:13 PM   #8
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You have a 50% chance to win the lottery. You either win it or u dont
Iím buying a ticket!
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Old 12-03-2017, 11:35 PM   #9
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Iím buying a ticket!
Yiu buy one and I'll buy one. One of us is guaranteed to win and we split it.

It's math.
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Old 12-04-2017, 08:53 AM   #10
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Yiu buy one and I'll buy one. One of us is guaranteed to win and we split it.

It's math.
Actually not quite. If you each have a 50% chance of winning, the odds of one of you winning is actually 75%. The odds of both of you winning is 25%.

I'll also buy one, so the odds of one of us winning increase to

Now if I also but one, the odds of one of us wining goes up to 87.%, so we can split is 3 ways.
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Old 12-04-2017, 09:18 AM   #11
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Iím buying a ticket!
pffft, typical Oiler fan getting excited about the lottery in December...
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Old 12-04-2017, 09:24 AM   #12
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If the Flames can turn around their garbage D. They only need to go 30-20-7 to get to 96 points. That should be easy for this club to do if they play a full team game.
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Old 12-04-2017, 09:26 AM   #13
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If the Flames can turn around their garbage D. They only need to go 30-20-7 to get to 96 points. That should be easy for this club to do if they play a full team game.
I agree, considering the Wild I think made it with 86 points. They will turn it around. You have to think that even though they didn't get up to play against the oilers that it had to be some kind of reality check. ugh, what a gross game.
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Old 12-04-2017, 09:30 AM   #14
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I agree, considering the Wild I think made it with 86 points. They will turn it around. You have to think that even though they didn't get up to play against the oilers that it had to be some kind of reality check. ugh, what a gross game.
Hate to say it but tonight is a huge game to see where the team is mentally.

If they come out flat and full of "nervous energy" I personally would take a long look at GG if I was Treliving.
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Old 12-04-2017, 09:49 AM   #15
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Actually not quite. If you each have a 50% chance of winning, the odds of one of you winning is actually 75%. The odds of both of you winning is 25%.

I'll also buy one, so the odds of one of us winning increase to

Now if I also but one, the odds of one of us wining goes up to 87.%, so we can split is 3 ways.
The three of us are going to be rich!!

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pffft, typical Oiler fan getting excited about the lottery in December...
Haha that was a good one!
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Old 12-04-2017, 10:05 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by GGG View Post
The stats assume (weighted) that teams are as good as their play indicates. So the validity of that model is how well the current play predicts their future play. I think they use Goal Differential in the model rather than just record.

So like most statistical tools it's a starting point. Do the Flames have about a 38% chance of making the playoffs? That seems reasonable. Do the knights make it 3/4 times probably not but it's not lower than 50/50. Really shows how early wins and banking those points pays off.
Except Vegas has had the leagues easiest schedule...billion home games and a steady diet of the Yotes
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Old 12-04-2017, 10:25 AM   #17
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Hate to say it but tonight is a huge game to see where the team is mentally.

If they come out flat and full of "nervous energy" I personally would take a long look at GG if I was Treliving.
I agree with GG. Not sure much Tre, I think he has done what can be expected of him. But GG not getting the team prepared to play from the get go almost every game needs to change. I don't even care if the product is a little boring if it is executed properly. I care about W's!
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Old 12-04-2017, 01:47 PM   #18
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We could track a few different sources.

Hockey Reference (as you mentioned) has them at 36%
Corsica Hockey has them at 57%
Sports Club Stats (Weighted) has them at 40%
Hockey Viz has them at 55%
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Old 12-04-2017, 01:49 PM   #19
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https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

Flames have 38% chance of making the playoffs currently.
I'll take it over the Oilers' 7.6% chance.
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Old 12-04-2017, 01:51 PM   #20
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Seems high.
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