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Old 01-12-2018, 09:26 PM   #61
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Yeah, and? The question was win the division. Anaheim and LA has been a 2nd half teams the past few years, so that has to be taken into when considering the question. San Jose has had a rough 2nd half, so they are probably not as big a concern. I think the two southern California teams will be in the mix and the Flames will have to battle them to earn the crown, if Las Vegas falters, which I don't think they will.
From your post "the Kings, Sharks, and Ducks to play sub .500, and the Flames to continue at the current pace". Since we are ahead of two of them and one point behind the other this math doesn't add up.

We are in the mix with some really great teams and Vegas has a strong lead. But we were also 11 points behind LA just over a week ago and the wheels have to fall of Vegas at some point (maybe). Things aren't as dire as you are trying to make them.
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Old 01-12-2018, 10:39 PM   #62
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Let’s slow the roll here. Vegas is up 8 points with 3 games in hand. Teams below us all have games in hand too. So do the Kings. By the time we come out of the break we will likely be outside of the playoffs looking in.
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Old 01-12-2018, 10:49 PM   #63
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After Stickgate and the statement game vs Anaheim, anything is possible this year.
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Old 01-12-2018, 10:55 PM   #64
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Old 01-13-2018, 04:55 AM   #65
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I know it is a long shot but considering that it is LV leading the division and predicted by many to regress at some point. Assuming that they eventually do start slumping , coupled with LA looking more and more like the team they had last year, any possibility of taking the division? I know it might seem like a pipe dream at this point but maybe not if we win another 5 in a row. Thoughts?
Forget about the division, you should be asking if the Flames can take the conference! I believe they can do it, so change the title of the thread to conference.
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Old 01-13-2018, 05:41 AM   #66
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Don’t know why anyone would expect Vegas to regress at this point. This team reminds me of a more talented 04 Flames - less a hockey club and more of a cult.

They all live in the same neighborhood and all have a chip on their shoulder from being cast off from their prior team. They have an excellent coach, and are motivated by their fans and “Vegas Strong”.

They aren’t flukeing out wins or relying on red hot goaltending... they are just out working everyone who comes to town.

It is going to be a real test when we play them.
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Old 01-13-2018, 05:44 AM   #67
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13-2 in their last 15. It’s not even like they’ve hit a rough patch recently.
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Old 01-13-2018, 10:51 AM   #68
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Interestingly enough, taking the division would mean taking the conference.

While I think we can, Vegas has increased their lead over us over the last ten played by each team by 3 points. They’re 9-1, we’re 7-2-1.
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Old 01-13-2018, 11:54 AM   #69
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Better odds they miss the playoffs than win the division. I would be happy with a wildcard at this point as Vegas has two games at hand as well as a 10 point lead. Even if they win 3/4 against them (not likely an easy task) they have only gained 4 points and if they split there's likely zero chance they catch them unless they go on a lengthily losing skid. There are eight teams within 6 points of each other (including the Flames) so the standings are going to change on a weekly basis as by next week the Flames could easily be 12th in the conference.
I know filling the worst case scenario card is your thing(for reasons unknown), but even with the flames on a bye week, im curious how you think the flames could be in 12th by next week? I don't think it's mathematically possible even with worst case scenario out of town scoreboards between now and next Saturday.
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Old 01-13-2018, 12:57 PM   #70
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I know filling the worst case scenario card is your thing(for reasons unknown), but even with the flames on a bye week, im curious how you think the flames could be in 12th by next week? I don't think it's mathematically possible even with worst case scenario out of town scoreboards between now and next Saturday.
Interesting, and it is a good question. Here are the numbers of games for teams in 9–12 spots behind the Flames while they are idle next week:

Anaheim: 3 games
Colorado: 2 games
San Jose: 3 games
Minnesota: 0 games

The two wildcard teams play 0 games (Chicago) and 3 games (Dallas) respectively.

The Flames will play their final game tomorrow; The Wild, Ducks, Avalanche and Stars all play today, and the Wild and Hawks also play tomorrow. So, here is the worst case scenario for next Saturday:

Let us say that Calgary loses on Sunday, leaving them with 52 its in 45GP and 22 ROW. Dallas plays Colorado, so only one of those teams can win. For this exercise I will pick Colorado. If all the teams playing this weekend win all their games, here is how they will slot on Monday:

Pac #3. Cgy 45GP 52 Pts 22 ROW

WC #1. Min 46GP 54 Pts 23 ROW
WC #2. Chi 45GP 52 Pts 23 ROW

#9. Dal 44GP 51 Pts 21 ROW
#10. Col 42GP 49 Pts 22 ROW
#11. Anh 44GP 49 Pts 23 ROW
#12. SJ 40GP 48 Pts 19 ROW

Calgary remains in the Division slot, Chicago and Dallas swap places, which means that in the worst case scenario they would enter play next Saturday in a tie with Chicago, but with -1 ROW.

Here is how the rest of the week will pan out:

Next week Anaheim plays Colorado, and Colorado plays SJ. For this exercise we will pick Pacific teams to win, which will mean it will be impossible for Colorado to pass the Flames. With wins for everyone else, here is how the standings would break down when the Flames play again next Saturday.

Pac #3. Anh 47GP 55 Pts 26 ROW

WC #1. Dal 47GP 57 Pts 24 ROW
WC #2. SJ 43GP 54 Pts 22 ROW

#9. Min 46GP 54 Pts 23 ROW
#10. Chi 45GP 52 Pts 23 ROW
#11. Cgy 45GP 52 Pts 22 ROW
#12. Col 42GP 49 Pts 22 ROW

So, in the worst case scenario the Flames are actually in eleventh, two points out of the playoffs with SJ holding two games in hand, and three points back of the Division #3 slot with two games in hand on Anaheim. However, they will also remain only five points back of LA, and with four games in hand (LA having gained only two points in their next four games, thanks to losses to SJ and Anaheim (x2).

Bear in mind that this is the WORST CASE SCENARIO. In truth, not all of these teams will win all of the games I projected for this exercise. In truth, if this is the absolute worst that can happen between now and next weekend, then I would say the Flames are in good shape heading into the break. I would actually suggest that chances are very good they will still find themselves in a playoff spot when they come out of it next week. If they manage to win tomorrow, then they most certainly will.
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Old 01-13-2018, 01:17 PM   #71
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Did your analysis account for 3 point games?
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Old 01-13-2018, 01:32 PM   #72
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Interesting, and it is a good question. Here are the numbers of games for teams in 9–12 spots behind the Flames while they are idle next week:

Anaheim: 3 games
Colorado: 2 games
San Jose: 3 games
Minnesota: 0 games

The two wildcard teams play 0 games (Chicago) and 3 games (Dallas) respectively.

The Flames will play their final game tomorrow; The Wild, Ducks, Avalanche and Stars all play today, and the Wild and Hawks also play tomorrow. So, here is the worst case scenario for next Saturday:

Let us say that Calgary loses on Sunday, leaving them with 52 its in 45GP and 22 ROW. Dallas plays Colorado, so only one of those teams can win. For this exercise I will pick Colorado. If all the teams playing this weekend win all their games, here is how they will slot on Monday:

Pac #3. Cgy 45GP 52 Pts 22 ROW

WC #1. Min 46GP 54 Pts 23 ROW
WC #2. Chi 45GP 52 Pts 23 ROW

#9. Dal 44GP 51 Pts 21 ROW
#10. Col 42GP 49 Pts 22 ROW
#11. Anh 44GP 49 Pts 23 ROW
#12. SJ 40GP 48 Pts 19 ROW

Calgary remains in the Division slot, Chicago and Dallas swap places, which means that in the worst case scenario they would enter play next Saturday in a tie with Chicago, but with -1 ROW.

Here is how the rest of the week will pan out:

Next week Anaheim plays Colorado, and Colorado plays SJ. For this exercise we will pick Pacific teams to win, which will mean it will be impossible for Colorado to pass the Flames. With wins for everyone else, here is how the standings would break down when the Flames play again next Saturday.

Pac #3. Anh 47GP 55 Pts 26 ROW

WC #1. Dal 47GP 57 Pts 24 ROW
WC #2. SJ 43GP 54 Pts 22 ROW

#9. Min 46GP 54 Pts 23 ROW
#10. Chi 45GP 52 Pts 23 ROW
#11. Cgy 45GP 52 Pts 22 ROW
#12. Col 42GP 49 Pts 22 ROW

So, in the worst case scenario the Flames are actually in eleventh, two points out of the playoffs with SJ holding two games in hand, and three points back of the Division #3 slot with two games in hand on Anaheim. However, they will also remain only five points back of LA, and with four games in hand (LA having gained only two points in their next four games, thanks to losses to SJ and Anaheim (x2).

Bear in mind that this is the WORST CASE SCENARIO. In truth, not all of these teams will win all of the games I projected for this exercise. In truth, if this is the absolute worst that can happen between now and next weekend, then I would say the Flames are in good shape heading into the break. I would actually suggest that chances are very good they will still find themselves in a playoff spot when they come out of it next week. If they manage to win tomorrow, then they most certainly will.

And all of that is assuming a loss tomorrow... pick up the win tomorrow and it is a pretty good situation to enter the break on.
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Old 01-13-2018, 01:38 PM   #73
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Did your analysis account for 3 point games?
No. I suppose you are correct that the worst case scenario is for Colorado to get single points in their losses to Anaheim and SJ, and for Dallas to earn one in their loss to Colorado. But these do not effect the overall picture by much: Colorado gains two points and lands one point behind Calgary, and Dallas gains one point and lands six points up on Calgary instead of five. Remember: everyone else is always gaining the maximum number of points, and the picture then changes very insignificantly to this:

Pac #3. Anh 47GP 55 Pts 26 ROW

WC #1. Dal 47GP 58 Pts 24 ROW
WC #2. SJ 43GP 54 Pts 22 ROW

#9. Min 46GP 54 Pts 23 ROW
#10. Chi 45GP 52 Pts 23 ROW
#11. Cgy 45GP 52 Pts 22 ROW
#12. Col 42GP 51 Pts 22 ROW
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Old 01-13-2018, 08:09 PM   #74
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No. I suppose you are correct that the worst case scenario is for Colorado to get single points in their losses to Anaheim and SJ, and for Dallas to earn one in their loss to Colorado. But these do not effect the overall picture by much: Colorado gains two points and lands one point behind Calgary, and Dallas gains one point and lands six points up on Calgary instead of five. Remember: everyone else is always gaining the maximum number of points, and the picture then changes very insignificantly to this:

Pac #3. Anh 47GP 55 Pts 26 ROW

WC #1. Dal 47GP 58 Pts 24 ROW
WC #2. SJ 43GP 54 Pts 22 ROW

#9. Min 46GP 54 Pts 23 ROW
#10. Chi 45GP 52 Pts 23 ROW
#11. Cgy 45GP 52 Pts 22 ROW
#12. Col 42GP 51 Pts 22 ROW
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Old 01-14-2018, 05:06 PM   #75
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I am updating my earlier post, which was prompted by the "Eoric" musings of our very own Erick Estrada:
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Better odds they miss the playoffs than win the division. I would be happy with a wildcard at this point as Vegas has two games at hand as well as a 10 point lead. Even if they win 3/4 against them (not likely an easy task) they have only gained 4 points and if they split there's likely zero chance they catch them unless they go on a lengthily losing skid. There are eight teams within 6 points of each other (including the Flames) so the standings are going to change on a weekly basis as by next week the Flames could easily be 12th in the conference.
My last post showed that no, even in the worst case scenario the Flames could find themselves no lower than 11th after the mandated break. But with a big win today, things have changed — alot ...

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Here are the numbers of games for teams in 9–12 spots behind the Flames while they are idle next week:
Anaheim: 3 games
San Jose: 3 games
Colorado: 2 games
Chicago: 0 games

The two wildcard teams play 0 games (Minnesota) and 3 games (Dallas) respectively. The LA Kings now suddenly find themselves behind the Flames in third spot in the division.

The LA Kings will play 3 games before the Flames return to action next Saturday.

The Wild, Ducks, and Avalanche all won their games yesterday. The Flames won their last game before the break today, and the Chicago Blackhawks lost theirs to slip behind Calgary. So, here are the Standings as of today, heading into the break:

Pac #2. Cgy 45GP 54 Pts 23 ROW
Pac #3. LA 43GP 53 Pts 22 ROW

WC #1. Min 46GP 54 Pts 23 ROW
WC #2. Dal 44GP 51 Pts 21 ROW

#9. SJ 41GP 50 Pts 20 ROW
#10. Chi 45GP 50 Pts 22 ROW
#11. Col 42GP 49 Pts 22 ROW
#12. Anh 44GP 49 Pts 18 ROW

For this exercise I will assume that every team earns a regulation win, except for instances in which Anaheim plays Colorado and LA, LA plays SJ, and SJ plays Colorado. The losers in each of these games will earn a point. I will always pick Pacific teams to win, which means that Colorado will earn a maximum of two points this week. In games featuring the Kings, I will select them to win, as they are the Flames's currently closest competitors. They will gain six points, and each of Anaheim and SJ gain one point in their losses.

Pac #2. LA 46GP 59 Pts 25 ROW
Pac #3. SJ 44GP 55 Pts 22 ROW

WC #1. Dal 47GP 57 Pts 24 ROW
WC #2. Cgy 45GP 54 Pts 23 ROW

#9. Min 46GP 54 Pts 23 ROW
#10. Anh 47GP 54 Pts 20 ROW
#11. Col 44GP 51 Pts 22 ROW
#12. Chi 45GP 50 Pts 22 ROW

So, in the worst case scenario the Flames will find themselves drop no further than the second wildcard slot, one point out of the Division with SJ holding one game in hand, and five points back of the Division #2 slot with a game in hand on LA.

Bear in mind that this is the WORST CASE SCENARIO. In truth, not all of these teams will win all of the games I projected for this exercise. In truth, if this is the absolute worst that can happen between now and next weekend, then I would say the Flames are in excellent shape heading into the break. I would actually suggest that chances are very good they will still find themselves in a Division spot when they come out of it next week.
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Old 01-15-2018, 09:41 AM   #76
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Old 01-16-2018, 08:57 PM   #77
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Vegas lost to Nashville tonight. Their records now stand as follows:

VGK: 29-11-3
CAL: 25-16-4

If Calgary were able to sweep the 4 games between them in regulation (extremely unlikely), but for argument's sake, that would bring us to:

VGK: 29-15-3
CAL: 29-16-4

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Old 01-16-2018, 09:22 PM   #78
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Vegas lost to Nashville tonight. Their records now stand as follows:

VGK: 29-11-3
CAL: 25-16-4

If Calgary were able to sweep the 4 games between them in regulation (extremely unlikely), but for argument's sake, that would bring us to:

VGK: 29-15-3

CAL: 29-16-4

<insert Lloyd Christmas gif here>
Also they are only a game or two above .500 on the road with 9 of the next 11 being on the road. Fingers crossed. But perhaps 2nd place would be better. I see us matching better with an LA or SJ than I do a central team. I'm split on that one.
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Old 01-17-2018, 09:56 PM   #79
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This week is no bueno. It’s looking like we will be barely hanging on to WC2 when the puck drops on sat. Hopefully the Pens get their #### together and beat the Kings.

This is shaping up to be a crazy race down the stretch. If Vegas were to go ona 5 game skid they could be battling for a wild card. Any of the other teams in the hunt go on a skid like that and it could be lights out.

This is basically playoff hockey in January. So exciting. Unless you are the Oilers. Lol.
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Old 01-18-2018, 06:59 AM   #80
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Vegas lost to Nashville tonight. Their records now stand as follows:

VGK: 29-11-3
CAL: 25-16-4

If Calgary were able to sweep the 4 games between them in regulation (extremely unlikely), but for argument's sake, that would bring us to:

VGK: 29-15-3
CAL: 29-16-4

<insert Lloyd Christmas gif here>
Realistically they have to win 3/4 to have a chance unless the other shoe drops for this team and they finally hit a rough patch. Really it's going to be tooth and nail all the way to the end just to make the playoffs as the Sharks as annoying as they are (seriously when are they going to decline?) aren't going anywhere and the first team in this tight pack of teams that goes on a prolonged slump will probably be on the outside looking in.
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