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Old 04-29-2022, 12:11 PM   #241
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This speaks for itself and is before Tesla makes any money off of Berlin and Texas.

If we are going to argue about Telsa - I will say that in the long run the unless Tesla can maintain some kind of brand halo that Apple for example has, those values per delivery will all flatten out. Tesla has the first mover advantage now and basically a market to themselves. As other companies get into the market, the competition will either rise up or Tesla's will drop.


And as a lefty - Musk is obviously very successful at business and also a dink. Very few people are all bad or all good and if you are viewing anyone in that light in either direction, you are likely wrong.
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Old 04-29-2022, 12:46 PM   #242
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Tesla's P/E is insanely high (as most growth stocks are), but their earnings are growing at such a fast rate that it really wouldn't take too much growth to knock it back down to a more reasonable level. So even at their current share price, there actually isn't an insane amount of growth priced in. If their net income grew by 50% a year during their growth phase, they'd be a $2T company at a P/E of 50 (basically what Amazon was before this recent drop) in 3-4 years.

At the same time, it doesn't take much of a plateau in earnings for a growth stock to change things. Amazon in 2017-18 had a similar market cap and growth to Tesla now and was seeing huge gains. But now, despite their earnings being 300% what they were in 2018, their share price is only up about 25% since then.

I think most of the hype around Tesla with regards to future technologies is misguided (their FSD is laughable at this point) and kind of distracts from the fact that they seem to be able to make a ton of money on their cars. I don't see any reason that they can't occupy a similar space as Apple within the automotive world. Most phones and computers that people use aren't made by Apple, but they make way more money on their devices than their competitors and as a result are the most valuable company in the world and they keep making more and more money.
If you look at the current luxury car market you can start creating boundaryís around how far the Tesla Brand cache will carry. Looking at Zamlers chart I wonder what Lexus and other premium brands per sale profit is. There isnít really a reason that as the market matures that the luxury vs non luxury premiums will change.

Apple is the largest / second largest supplier of phones. There is no reason to believe that in a mature car market that you will be able to charge premium prices and capture that significant of a market share like you do in the phone market.

So what you end up making a bet on is supply chain. You are betting that Tesla can continue to supply batteries at a faster rate than other manufacturers or maintain a technological advantage on batteries or charging systems. This may be a reasonable bet.

However betting that Tesla becomes apple and is able to expand market share while maintaining a premium price point without a technological advantage does not seem like a good bet.
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Old 04-29-2022, 01:00 PM   #243
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If you look at the current luxury car market you can start creating boundaryís around how far the Tesla Brand cache will carry. Looking at Zamlers chart I wonder what Lexus and other premium brands per sale profit is. There isnít really a reason that as the market matures that the luxury vs non luxury premiums will change.

Apple is the largest / second largest supplier of phones. There is no reason to believe that in a mature car market that you will be able to charge premium prices and capture that significant of a market share like you do in the phone market.

So what you end up making a bet on is supply chain. You are betting that Tesla can continue to supply batteries at a faster rate than other manufacturers or maintain a technological advantage on batteries or charging systems. This may be a reasonable bet.

However betting that Tesla becomes apple and is able to expand market share while maintaining a premium price point without a technological advantage does not seem like a good bet.
That's a good point. Cars are too expensive for a premium brand to dominate in sales numbers. I'm sure a lot of us would like to own a cooler or fancier car but when that costs me $500/month extra for 3-5 years - I think twice. The phone price difference is $500 once or like $10/month for a few years.
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Old 04-29-2022, 01:04 PM   #244
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Your meltdown here is hilarious. Spin, spin, spin.
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Watching this play out is going to be bloody hilarious, because we're one week in and you're completely unhinged already. LOL!
TIL...not blindly polishing Elon's knob = unhinged meltdown.
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Old 04-29-2022, 01:09 PM   #245
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TIL...not blindly polishing Elon's knob = unhinged meltdown.
Everyone knows that eye contact is an important component of any quality knob polishing job. It is a good habit not to do it blind.
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Old 04-29-2022, 01:11 PM   #246
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That's a good point. Cars are too expensive for a premium brand to dominate in sales numbers. I'm sure a lot of us would like to own a cooler or fancier car but when that costs me $500/month extra for 3-5 years - I think twice. The phone price difference is $500 once or like $10/month for a few years.
To dispute my own point - I will say this is the first big turning point in the automobile market in a long time. So how it turns out is a question mark. I'm sure there were similar questions about Japanese cars before they made big inroads in the North American market.
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Old 04-29-2022, 01:14 PM   #247
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I think most of the hype around Tesla with regards to future technologies is misguided (their FSD is laughable at this point) and kind of distracts from the fact that they seem to be able to make a ton of money on their cars.
Exactly, making fun of Musk and his antics doesn't mean making fun of or not recognizing what Tesla as a company has been able to do.

It's entirely possible to both own Tesla stock AND recognize what he is.


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Old 04-29-2022, 01:20 PM   #248
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Personally I identify with logic, reason and sensibility. Wherever those things happens to land on the political spectrum on any given issue/subject.

I'm not married to any platform or party and I never plan to be. Because dumb politicians, conniving ones and respectable ones rotate through every party, and the things we need most changes based on the time and circumstance.

Personally I'm not a fan of over-censoring, but at the same time neither am a fan of spreading and influencing people to rally around anything that is clearly misinformation.

Basically what I wish for is just for any functioning adult to be able to use their brain to its fullest capacity to discern what is truth and what's conjecture or an outright lie, and not falling victim to things like charisma or proficient actors with ulterior motivations. Doesn't seem difficult, but somehow it is.

Unfortunately there's a large contingent that are like trout floating down a river with their mouths open, waiting to latch on to the next bait wiggling their way.

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Old 04-29-2022, 01:34 PM   #249
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Originally Posted by GGG View Post
If you look at the current luxury car market you can start creating boundaryís around how far the Tesla Brand cache will carry. Looking at Zamlers chart I wonder what Lexus and other premium brands per sale profit is. There isnít really a reason that as the market matures that the luxury vs non luxury premiums will change.

Apple is the largest / second largest supplier of phones. There is no reason to believe that in a mature car market that you will be able to charge premium prices and capture that significant of a market share like you do in the phone market.

So what you end up making a bet on is supply chain. You are betting that Tesla can continue to supply batteries at a faster rate than other manufacturers or maintain a technological advantage on batteries or charging systems. This may be a reasonable bet.

However betting that Tesla becomes apple and is able to expand market share while maintaining a premium price point without a technological advantage does not seem like a good bet.
But is it really a premium price? The vast, vast majority of the vehicles they're shipping are Model 3 and Model Y, which aren't priced all that much higher than the competition. A Long Range Model 3 AWD has an EPA range of 568 km and costs $51K in the US; a base trim AWD Ioniq 5 has an EPA range of about 485km and costs $47K. And a base model RWD Model 3 costs $42K which is right in line with similar range cars like the VW ID.4.
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Old 04-30-2022, 10:00 AM   #250
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1520199912608223234


Eww, I didn't know Elon was also an Epstein-er. Gross.


Unconfirmed, but more info:
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ep...maxwell-email/
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Old 04-30-2022, 06:38 PM   #251
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1520408467596627968
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Old 04-30-2022, 08:07 PM   #252
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Can you be more specific? Like who?

I guess I would counter you question with the same.. do you NOT find it incredibly easy to know if someone is left or right if you hear some of their opinions on things like Musk and gay rights or gun laws?

edit2: Let me further sharpen that up. If you put a gun to my head and asked what the political leaning of a person was, and, I could ask three questions, I'd feel pretty safe about surviving. Ask them how they feel about gay marriage, Donald Trump, and COVId vaccines. Is it fool proof? No but nothing really is.
Sorry, I never did respond to this. I guess I was just curious how you could be sure if someone was on the left or right just based on a single tweet, without the benefit of asking 3 questions. I admit some are easy, depending on the subject, but to me there are a lot of tweets that would be tough to tell if they are left, right or center merely just as a response to something Musk has said. But as I said before, it's not a big deal, I was just curious more than anything.
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Old 05-05-2022, 10:50 PM   #253
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1522380713047244800
Saudi Prince + Chinese Crypto = FREEDOM !!!!
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Old 05-05-2022, 11:04 PM   #254
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If there’s anybody that knows freedom of speech, it’s the Saudis and the Chinese.
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Old 05-13-2022, 08:11 AM   #255
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Elon Musk says Twitter deal 'temporarily on hold'
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Stock in Twitter tumbles 18% while Tesla jumps 5%

Elon Musk said Friday that his planned $44 billion US purchase of Twitter is "temporarily on hold" pending details on spam and fake accounts on the social media platform, another twist amid signs of internal turmoil over the proposed acquisition.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/elo...451942?cmp=rss

Musk gets cold feet.
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Old 05-13-2022, 08:23 AM   #256
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Heh. Musk is in disbelief that no more than 5% of the Elon Muskians are bots.

On the bright-side no Trump, and on the other bright-side, maybe Twitter will get rid of bots and troll farms.
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Old 05-13-2022, 08:26 AM   #257
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Trying to get a lower price with current tech stock tank or looking for a way to back out?

Twitter also oddly fired 2 executives yesterday (one on paternity leave) when you'd kind of expect them to just operate as is until this closed.
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Old 05-13-2022, 08:32 AM   #258
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Using twitter to manipulate the stock price.. the tried and true strategy!
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Old 05-13-2022, 08:48 AM   #259
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Worth stating that if he backs out - Twitter is basically screwed. The stock will tank (as it is already), they've cleared out some execs and the board has basically said they have no idea what to do with the company. Will be sold to someone for a lot less that Musk was offering.
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Old 05-13-2022, 09:29 AM   #260
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Using twitter to manipulate the stock price.. the tried and true strategy!
Musk seems to have made it a hobby of his.
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