American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[AFireInside]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

Pipe is getting laid on the canadian side now. Pump stations (which are actually the most time consuming part, so it's not nothing although most measures of progress are km of pipe laid) were being constructed in the US. The main roadblock during Trumps administration has been a federal judge in Montana who has ruled against the pipeline twice, the most recent one last spring. He's a well known activist judge, his most recent miscarriage of justice was ruling that a streamlined US army corps of engineer permit program that has been in use since the 70s for every major infrastructure project in the states from pipelines to broadband was somehow invalid for keystone xl. I don't know where exactly that stands but the plan from TC was that pipe would be laid in the states this summer and 2023 would be the expected in service date. So this project was moving forward, under construction, it's not frozen or in limbo. Yet, I guess.

This is 100% a giant middle finger from Biden to us, that's undeniable no matter where you stand on Kenney or Trump or Trudeau or whomever else. USGC needs the crude we have, and instead of us piping it directly to them they'll be importing it from overseas. An added likely insult to injury is while shutting in our ethical production that benefits all of us biden will probably lift sanctions on Iran and Venezuela allowing more of their crude out. Allowing countries that not only don't share our respect for the environment, but don't even have common respect for their own people or human rights to be allowed market access by Biden while he denies us should make everyone furious. What will probably end up happening is once TMX is completed a lot of the heavy crude exported from Vancouver will probably wind up at the US gulf coast, it's only a slightly further sail than China and thanks to Biden it'll be the best way to get our crude to the states. So instead of a 2700km pipeline journey it'll be a 1,100 km pipeline journey the wrong way, followed by a 9,000km sail...yay environment!!

I'm in favour of the pipeline, and pipelines in general, especially when it just make more sense to move product that way.

I just think it's overly simplistic to say this Biden trying to screw Canada. This has been in the approval process for years. There's obviously way more to it than simply, "screw Canada".

As for the Judge in Montana, he's not an activist judge because he ruled against the pipeline. He's ruled in favour of Trump on projects as well. Just because he ruled against this specific aspect doesn't make him an activist. Just taking a quick look, he ruled in favour of Trump reversing an Obama policy on coal. He rejected a bid by tribes, to undo the Trump administration's decision to end a temporary coal leasing moratorium on public lands. He said they had complied with his previous order to analyze the impacts of reversing an Obama ban on coal leasing on public lands.

[TorqueDog]

It sucks that Biden is going to axe KXL, but if you gave me the choice between cancelling KXL or another four years of Trump in the White House, I'm sorry but I choose cancelling the pipeline.

However, Trudeau and the the Liberals had a very good relationship with the past Obama administration that Biden was a part of, hopefully there's a conversation to be had and some negotiation to be done.

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by AFireInside

I'm in favour of the pipeline, and pipelines in general, especially when it just make more sense to move product that way.

I just think it's overly simplistic to say this Biden trying to screw Canada. This has been in the approval process for years. There's obviously way more to it than simply, "screw Canada".

As for the Judge in Montana, he's not an activist judge because he ruled against the pipeline. He's ruled in favour of Trump on projects as well. Just because he ruled against this specific aspect doesn't make him an activist. Just taking a quick look, he ruled in favour of Trump reversing an Obama policy on coal. He rejected a bid by tribes, to undo the Trump administration's decision to end a temporary coal leasing moratorium on public lands. He said they had complied with his previous order to analyze the impacts of reversing an Obama ban on coal leasing on public lands.

I don't think he's doing it because he hates Canada, it's out of pandering to an environmental base or pure ignorance of the situation. But it's effectively a screw you. I don't wanna argue about the judge but he's had two unprecedented rulings against KXL in a row. He also has another one against oil and gas in montana. I guess he likes coal better.

Originally Posted by TorqueDog

It sucks that Biden is going to axe KXL, but if you gave me the choice between cancelling KXL or another four years of Trump in the White House, I'm sorry but I choose cancelling the pipeline.

Certainly a lot of people feel that way. I find it funny though how that sanguinity rarely extends into the real-world effects of this cancellation. Not sure if you live in Alberta but I guess the next time you want to get upset about future public budgeting or tax increases you can comfort yourself with the knowledge that it was worth it just to get Trump out of office in a foreign country.

[Looch City]

Alright 'Berta, it's time to storm the Capitol!

[CaptainCrunch]

He's not doing it because he hates Canada, Canada doesn't enter into any calculations here. Obama made decisions that screwed over Canada, Trump did and Biden will, we're going to be a victim until we find a way to put on our big boy pants and both protect and expand our markets.


Biden if he enacts his protectionist America first policy and kills Keystone and goes along with the shut down of Line 5 will cause vast damage to Canada, but he doesn't care about that. We're not friends, we're not trusted allies, we're just on their border and there is no reason for the Americans to appease us.

[CaptainCrunch]

And the whole hoping that Biden's past relationships with the Liberals will make any bit of difference. He was part of an Obama administration where the president ignored his own EPA report and lied about his reasons for stopping the Pipeline the last time while continuing to build massive amounts of pipelines in the States to expand America's market.

[Manhattanboy]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

And the whole hoping that Biden's past relationships with the Liberals will make any bit of difference. He was part of an Obama administration where the president ignored his own EPA report and lied about his reasons for stopping the Pipeline the last time while continuing to build massive amounts of pipelines in the States to expand America's market.

I refused an opportunity to meet Obama and listen to him speak because his lies cost TC hundreds of millions. He was deliberately dishonest on KXL.

I would be shocked if Trudeau did any lobbying on this at all.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by Bunk

How much actual tax dollars are we out due to this decision?

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Isn't it something like 1.5 billion from the Province of Alberta.





And it was estimated that it would bring in 30 billion to Alberta and 2.4 billion to Canada.


IIRC

The correct answer was $30M. But 1.5 billion close enough.
(GDP does not equal tax revenue).

Or maybe the $1.5 you are talking about is the brain dead investment Kenny made in a pipeline that has been doomed to be an incomplete political football for a decade now and a decade more to come. Just wait until you find out about the extra $1000 every Albertan has to put into this when they decide to default on the loan we've guaranteed.

Piss on the lost economic activity, the real cost here is throwing Albertans money away for politically motivated grandstanding.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by TorqueDog

It sucks that Biden is going to axe KXL, but if you gave me the choice between cancelling KXL or another four years of Trump in the White House, I'm sorry but I choose cancelling the pipeline.

However, Trudeau and the the Liberals had a very good relationship with the past Obama administration that Biden was a part of, hopefully there's a conversation to be had and some negotiation to be done.

We shouldn't need Biden or the KXL as we just get ripped off anyway, what is needed is leadership to approve energy east so we could use our own oil and sell it to Europe instead of paying billions to deplorable country's for their oil.

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by #-3

The correct answer was $30M. But 1.5 billion close enough.
(GDP does not equal tax revenue).

Or maybe the $1.5 you are talking about is the brain dead investment Kenny made in a pipeline that has been doomed to be an incomplete political football for a decade now and a decade more to come. Just wait until you find out about the extra $1000 every Albertan has to put into this when they decide to default on the loan we've guaranteed.

Piss on the lost economic activity, the real cost here is throwing Albertans money away for politically motivated grandstanding.

No the correct answer is 30 billion, you’re only off by a factor of 1000. And that’s just in direct tax money, I know you wanna piss on the overall economic generation for some reason but that exists too. Even just simple arithmetic shows how much value we’re losing, 830,000 barrels X $50.00 USD per day every day. Even if the pipeline is only half full in just one year it’ll ferry 9.7B CAD worth of oil south...and your 30 million number is .3% of that. I can promise you the royalty rate in Alberta is much higher than that

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by TorqueDog

It sucks that Biden is going to axe KXL, but if you gave me the choice between cancelling KXL or another four years of Trump in the White House, I'm sorry but I choose cancelling the pipeline.

However, Trudeau and the the Liberals had a very good relationship with the past Obama administration that Biden was a part of, hopefully there's a conversation to be had and some negotiation to be done.

Exactly. Trump was no friend or ally to Canada.

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by New Era

Verification is on you, the consumer of media. We know Twitter is full of ####, so verify everything and don't take things as fact until you've been able to validate the facts behind a statement. That is part and parcel with media literacy. Always verify your sources, especially one that don't pass the smell test.

Wouldn’t it be more efficient to have the person who is posting to verify the information, rather than expecting *every* reader to do this work?

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

I refused an opportunity to meet Obama and listen to him speak because his lies cost TC hundreds of millions.

He must have been devastated.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Wormius

Exactly. Trump was no friend or ally to Canada.

Nor was Obama or most US presidents. Biden certainly won't be either. If they need to crush Canada for their own voter bases, guess what, we're getting crushed.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

We shouldn't need Biden or the KXL as we just get ripped off anyway, what is needed is leadership to approve energy east so we could use our own oil and sell it to Europe instead of paying billions to deplorable country's for their oil.

Yeah but who needs energy sovereignty and financial windfalls. There are votes to pander for.

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

Certainly a lot of people feel that way. I find it funny though how that sanguinity rarely extends into the real-world effects of this cancellation. Not sure if you live in Alberta but I guess the next time you want to get upset about future public budgeting or tax increases you can comfort yourself with the knowledge that it was worth it just to get Trump out of office in a foreign country.

"Not sure if you live in Alberta but..." oh spare me, try using your eyes. Location: Calgary, AB

First, it was pretty clear that KXL was going to keep getting challenged in the US courts, and as mentioned in other posts, Trump was no friend to Canada either; twelve years later and it's still being fought in the courts. Maybe Biden cancelling the project is the equivalent of ripping off the bandaid. How many more years do we throw money and legal resources at this thing to get it built? If there's a chance our government can find a deal with the incoming Biden administration, they should exhaust every avenue. But once it's dead, then we need to pivot.

Second, I regard another four years of Trump in the WH and the resulting political damage and civil unrest that imposes not only on the US who are still our closest allies, but to the political climate in Canada and the rest of the world as clearly far more significant than the KXL is in the grand scheme of things.

KXL is ultimately a temporary fix, O&G is not going to be the massive driver for Alberta that it once was. It isn't going away overnight either so we need to leverage it however we can, but the UCP continuing to throw all Alberta's eggs into the O&G basket while hamstringing our tech sector growth early in their tenure was an unforced error. You can also blame the Federal government for putting our futures into a single project that required another nation to play ball when we had an approved Northern Gateway and a promising Energy East pipeline that would have expanded our market reach. Staking our future on the KXL was a strategic error on the part both our Provincial and Federal governments.

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Nor was Obama or most US presidents. Biden certainly won't be either. If they need to crush Canada for their own voter bases, guess what, we're getting crushed.

Aside from blocking projects due to environmental issues, how did other US president's shaft Canada like Trump? I suppose Bush with the softwood lumber tariffs and mad cow. We got that 20 fold with Trump. He is an idiot, and I am glad that there are now adults in the WH.

[woob]

What is this garbage about the US "crushing us"? When has the US ever crushed us? Yes, we've had trade disputes, predatory tariffs, etc. But they're our largest trading partner whom we do billions of dollars of business with. Yes, we may not like some of the decisions they make, but none of it is "crushing" us. Calm down the chicken little rhetoric.

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by TorqueDog

"Not sure if you live in Alberta but..." oh spare me, try using your eyes. Location: Calgary, AB

First, it was pretty clear that KXL was going to keep getting challenged in the US courts, and as mentioned in other posts, Trump was no friend to Canada either; twelve years later and it's still being fought in the courts. Maybe Biden cancelling the project is the equivalent of ripping off the bandaid. How many more years do we throw money and legal resources at this thing to get it built? If there's a chance our government can find a deal with the incoming Biden administration, they should exhaust every avenue. But once it's dead, then we need to pivot.

Second, I regard another four years of Trump in the WH and the resulting political damage and civil unrest that imposes not only on the US who are still our closest allies, but to the political climate in Canada and the rest of the world as clearly far more significant than the KXL is in the grand scheme of things.

KXL is ultimately a temporary fix, O&G is not going to be the massive driver for Alberta that it once was. It isn't going away overnight either so we need to leverage it however we can, but the UCP continuing to throw all Alberta's eggs into the O&G basket while hamstringing our tech sector growth early in their tenure was an unforced error. You can also blame the Federal government for putting our futures into a single project that required another nation to play ball when we had an approved Northern Gateway and a promising Energy East pipeline that would have expanded our market reach. Staking our future on the KXL was a strategic error on the part both our Provincial and Federal governments.

lol not sure why you’re so prickly about me not knowing your location, I just didn’t want to assume you’re in Alberta because if you lived in BC or something this would have a lot less effect on you. I’ll know to take your profile and all your info on there super duper seriously and literally in the future.

Alberta’s future is tied to the energy industry. That’s just the reality. This decision will hurt albertas finances and money flow just like the first cancellation did. There’s no revenue stream on the horizon in anything else that can replicate the kind of cash flow this project would have brought. You can feel any way you want to feel about trump and his relationship with Canada I won’t argue with that. But it’s one thing to state that you’re ok with losing all this money and investment in our province in order to get the guy you don’t like out, quite another to stay consistent with that thought process in practice when the real world ramifications of this threaten something you like or want from the government. That’s all I’m saying. You can captain hindsight it by saying oh we should have built this, built that etc but at this moment in time, right now, Biden is axing further revenue from our province. You’re saying you’d take that over trump which is fair but just be consistent and recognize the downside of your preferred outcome next time you bemoan public budget cuts or whatever else. You can’t say you’re fine with losing money and then later complain about said lost money.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

I refused an opportunity to meet Obama and listen to him speak because his lies cost TC hundreds of millions. He was deliberately dishonest on KXL.

I would be shocked if Trudeau did any lobbying on this at all.

bonus humblebrag in this post.

edit: just read rubecubes post.

nicely played.