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View Poll Results: Who would you vote for?
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Biden
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6 |
66.67% |
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Trump
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3 |
33.33% |
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Kanye/other/Independent
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0 |
0% |
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Would not vote
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0% |
11-05-2020, 01:40 PM
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#3181
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Austria, NOT Australia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
I think the 17k are already included in counted ballots - i.e., not part of the 47k. However, there are 8000+ ballots in addition to the 47k that haven't been returned and could still come back. That was how I understood it.
I would be interested for someone to do the math on the bigger counties to see how much each would narrow the race for biden if you assume they're coming in in the same proportions as votes in the county have so far. Biden will probably outperform those numbers so if that would be enough to get him into the lead, that would be a good sign. I don't have time to do it right now.
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did some quick maths and I think he'd make up around 12.2k votes from the biggest four (3.4k in Fulton, 2.9k in Chatham, 5.1k in Clayton and 800 in Gwinnett). Jeezus, talk about a close race.
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11-05-2020, 01:41 PM
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#3182
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by photon
If I were Trump I'd have my Twitter competitor all ready to launch the minute after the election was called.
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Twatter?
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterJoji
Johnny eats garbage and isn’t 100% committed.
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11-05-2020, 01:43 PM
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#3183
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Franchise Player
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For fun, I started tracking votes some time yesterday. Since that point, it has gone as follows in PA:
Trump: 30,693
Biden: 111,025 (78.3%)
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11-05-2020, 01:45 PM
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#3184
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Our Jessica Fletcher
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Nvm
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11-05-2020, 01:46 PM
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#3185
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 Posted the 6 millionth post! |
Disgracebook
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11-05-2020, 01:48 PM
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#3186
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Franchise Player
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Calgary
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For anyone who wants to immerse themselves in data:
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-elec...e-changes.html
Personally, I'm finding it super stressful looking at this site. In PA, for example, it says Biden is currently averaging 70% and needs to be averaging 61% as of this writing. That margin doesn't leave much room for comfort. On the flipside, Trump is just barely exceeding the margin he needs to flip AZ.
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11-05-2020, 01:48 PM
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#3187
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Had an idea!
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81MC,
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mrkajz44,
Robo,
Scornfire,
Slava,
The Fonz,
Vinny01,
Yamer
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11-05-2020, 01:49 PM
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#3188
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Azure
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Because I wasn't feeling enough anxiety already.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterJoji
Johnny eats garbage and isn’t 100% committed.
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11-05-2020, 01:55 PM
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#3189
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Commie Referee
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Small town, B.C.
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11-05-2020, 01:57 PM
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#3190
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Franchise Player
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nm
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11-05-2020, 01:59 PM
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#3191
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarchHare
For anyone who wants to immerse themselves in data:
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-elec...e-changes.html
Personally, I'm finding it super stressful looking at this site. In PA, for example, it says Biden is currently averaging 70% and needs to be averaging 61% as of this writing. That margin doesn't leave much room for comfort. On the flipside, Trump is just barely exceeding the margin he needs to flip AZ. |
So based on that, in the last 484K votes that have been added (roughly equivalent to what's left to be counted) Biden has closed the gap by 170K votes, which is well above his current deficit of 107K. Still looks good for Biden, but it's still probably going to be close no matter which way it goes.
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11-05-2020, 02:00 PM
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#3192
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Franchise Player
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and for the past 100,000 or so votes, he has been running at closer to 80%
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11-05-2020, 02:03 PM
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#3193
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Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Winebar Kensington
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11-05-2020, 02:03 PM
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#3194
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
and for the past 100,000 or so votes, he has been running at closer to 80%
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In the last 10 "blocks" of votes, Biden has gotten 65.5, 62.5, 64.7, 52.3, 64.7, 69.1, 79.3, 56.7, 61.8 and 69.2% of votes. Which is still good, but it can't start regularly dipping into the 50's or it's going to be a problem.
__________________
"The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
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11-05-2020, 02:04 PM
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#3195
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Austria, NOT Australia
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and it shouldn't be surprising. You can't scream "mail-in voting is a fraud!" for months and discourage your base from voting via mail, and then be all surprised Pikachu face when your opponent takes 4 out of 5 mail-in votes.
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11-05-2020, 02:05 PM
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#3196
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Referee
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Over the hill
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Trump lead in PA is down to 101,000.
COUNT FASTER. I’m dying over here.
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11-05-2020, 02:07 PM
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#3197
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
In the last 10 "blocks" of votes, Biden has gotten 65.5, 62.5, 64.7, 52.3, 64.7, 69.1, 79.3, 56.7, 61.8 and 69.2% of votes. Which is still good, but it can't start regularly dipping into the 50's or it's going to be a problem.
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Yesterday:
Trump: 3,206,410
Biden: 3,023,667
Current:
Trump: 3,238,682
Biden: 3,137,658
Change:
Trump: 32,272
Biden: 113,991 (78%)
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11-05-2020, 02:08 PM
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#3198
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Commie Referee
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Small town, B.C.
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Now under 100k.
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11-05-2020, 02:08 PM
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#3199
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
Yesterday:
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This is not a rebuttal to my post. It's old information.
Trump lead down below 100k in PA, down to 97,900.
__________________
"The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
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11-05-2020, 02:08 PM
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#3200
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NOT breaking news
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by devo22
and it shouldn't be surprising. You can't scream "mail-in voting is a fraud!" for months and discourage your base from voting via mail, and then be all surprised Pikachu face when your opponent takes 4 out of 5 mail-in votes.
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Trump also played it wrong with the lawsuits. No judge or official is going to stick their necks out on the line for him. Republicans overachieved and got everything they wanted out of this election and they will move on the continue to govern. Overall, Trump is the only loser of this election.
__________________
Watching the Oilers defend is like watching fire engines frantically rushing to the wrong fire
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