Stocks - The Best Buys 2

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I'm going to be interested to see what is the AOL-Time Warner merger of this bubble. You've got to think one of these firms is going to use their shares as currency to buy something with more durable value.

You mean like Tesla buying bitcoin.

[Slava]

To be honest if I’m Tesla I’m spending my shares to buy a car company (if it’s possible), and I’m not convinced that’s a dumb idea. The shares are wildly overvalued, and if you can spend those as a currency to buy a legitimate business, that’s brilliant. Someone is going to do something questionable here though, and it’s fascinating to sit and watch it play out.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Slava

You don’t think it’s the third largest car company in the world having delivered a whopping 56 vehicles?

Fundamentals and this market are hilariously out of whack at this point.

Rivian's market cap is currently $20B higher than Volkswagon (which includes Porsche and Audi)

Rivian and Lucid are worth more than Volkswagon and Diaimler (Mercedes)

Would you rather own Mercedes, Porsche, Audi and Volkswagon, or a couple start-ups that may or may not get off the ground with their lineup of one or two vehicles that they can't deliver?

Tesla is currently worth 3 times as much as Ford, GM, Volkswagon and Daimler combined!

[zamler]

I decided to get in in Rivian a few days ago because EV stocks so hot right now. Lucid makes my spidey sense tingle something off about them but don't care been into them since the stock was 5x lower. Only question is when will I get out will probably hedge and dump say 60% then see what happens.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Slava

To be honest if I’m Tesla I’m spending my shares to buy a car company (if it’s possible), and I’m not convinced that’s a dumb idea. The shares are wildly overvalued, and if you can spend those as a currency to buy a legitimate business, that’s brilliant. Someone is going to do something questionable here though, and it’s fascinating to sit and watch it play out.

I dont think thats dumb at all, it's objectively a good idea.

If Tesla (or any of these firms) convert shares at market prices to assets they come out way ahead, because the shares are trading well above any reasonable assessment of their fair value.

I meant from AOLs perspective - they traded over valued shares for Time Warner, which had tons of durable assets (CNN, HBO, a movie studio, etc). Steve Case is still a billionaire because of that deal.

[Enoch Root]

sell some

if it keeps going up - great

but take some off the table

[Enoch Root]

Yes, it would be smart of Tesla to use the market cap to buy other, realistically priced, assets

Or, they could buy Rivian and Lucd, and just keeping eliminating competitors

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Slava

To be honest if I’m Tesla I’m spending my shares to buy a car company (if it’s possible), and I’m not convinced that’s a dumb idea. The shares are wildly overvalued, and if you can spend those as a currency to buy a legitimate business, that’s brilliant. Someone is going to do something questionable here though, and it’s fascinating to sit and watch it play out.

The risk in that is people start to value you like a car company instead of a tech company and look at earnings rather than future growth.

When you buy a car company you are buying a brand name and a supply chain. Would those things have value for Tesla that they can leverage

[Enoch Root]

BTW Slava,

I quoted you above, but my post wasn't directed at you. I know you know those things, and I was simply adding to your post.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by GGG

The risk in that is people start to value you like a car company instead of a tech company and look at earnings rather than future growth.

When you buy a car company you are buying a brand name and a supply chain. Would those things have value for Tesla that they can leverage

I have been on a tour of 1 car factory, and I don't know how it compares to Teslas Manufacturing methods, but I assume if Tesla were to buy something it would be more focused on factories, employees, equipment... in an acquisition, not necessarily the brands. Tesla has a great brand, their price points honestly aren't looking too out to lunch now that other EVs are reaching market, if they were confident / ready to scale big time, buying factories might make sense.

When you have the market cap of Tesla supply chains aren't that hard to scale, everyone wants to work with you. And like others have mentioned other car brands might pull Tesla down to an extent.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by GGG

The risk in that is people start to value you like a car company instead of a tech company and look at earnings rather than future growth.

When you buy a car company you are buying a brand name and a supply chain. Would those things have value for Tesla that they can leverage

Well there are some harsh realities that Tesla and Tesla shareholders will face. Even valued as Apple, they’ve got a lot of issues when it comes to valuation. If you contrast them to Google, Amazon or companies like that and their growth, it’s not a pretty comparison for Tesla.

But even if you give Tesla the fullest benefit of the doubt, and all the market share, profit margins and everything else that Apple has today, they’re still a questionable value. That’s not just saying “I’m not sure they can make it”; it’s saying “let’s assume that’s all overcome, the math is still questionable at best.”

That scenario is essentially saying Tesla can overcome the homogeneities of phones as opposed to cars, the profit margin Apple makes off apps and music as opposed to where Tesla is earning theirs, the fact that the Apple margins are about 3x companies like Toyota and VW, and the list goes on. Assuming they’re successful in all of that, they could well be still overvalued at todays price…and that’s really saying something.

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by tony-soprano

Curious if anyone bought Rivian? 80b valuation was too high for me, and now we're sitting at 170b lol.

I picked up some on the first day of trading $109. Doing okay for now, but I am worried about a burst once reality sets in. I don’t really think it’s worth what it is, but I am happy to ride the gains.

[bluejays]

Slava, where are you aiming your money (industry or stock specific) these days given the valuations gone sky high?


On a side note, the other day I posted I didn't believe in facebook as a stock but what are others' opinions on their future Meta platform? I'm big on Apple because they do well with anything they put their hands to, following wise, but Facebook is jumping to the forefront as a first mover. I think the virtual world will be the next big thing as a time waster, and it seems as though their platform will be designed to get micro transaction payments. Seems like a future revenue explosion (though I haven't bought them yet). Thoughts?


As for Amazon, I was shocked this past earnings where they may not make a profit next quarter. They keep going up and I'm holding, but it's concerning to hear they're not doing that well. I'm thinking of cashing out if it hits $3700 or so.

[Krovikan]

Originally Posted by Slava

To be honest if I’m Tesla I’m spending my shares to buy a car company (if it’s possible), and I’m not convinced that’s a dumb idea. The shares are wildly overvalued, and if you can spend those as a currency to buy a legitimate business, that’s brilliant. Someone is going to do something questionable here though, and it’s fascinating to sit and watch it play out.

I hope am thinking of taking a position in Ford as I think Ford might merge at some point.

Tesla at least has a lot of technology, I'm not convinced Lucid and Rivian are anything but car manufacturers.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Krovikan

I hope am thinking of taking a position in Ford as I think Ford might merge at some point.

Tesla at least has a lot of technology, I'm not convinced Lucid and Rivian are anything but car manufacturers.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

And Tesla had a head start.

Mercedes, BMW, Audi and Porsche are making ECs now. As is Korea. And everyone else.

The valuations of Lucid and Rivian are (somehow) even more ridiculous than Tesla.

[Krovikan]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

And Tesla had a head start.



Mercedes, BMW, Audi and Porsche are making ECs now. As is Korea. And everyone else.



The valuations of Lucid and Rivian are (somehow) even more ridiculous than Tesla.

Lucid has had this valuation before, so I'm watching the options, see if there are good deal and I'll buy some put options for 3 month

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[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GGG

The risk in that is people start to value you like a car company instead of a tech company and look at earnings rather than future growth.

When you buy a car company you are buying a brand name and a supply chain. Would those things have value for Tesla that they can leverage

If I was running Tesla/Lucid/Rivian I'd buy something else. Buy a renewable power company/power plants/utility and say its part of electric synergy. I agree if they bought GM people might value them like a car company.

[Krovikan]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

If I was running Tesla/Lucid/Rivian I'd buy something else. Buy a renewable power company/power plants/utility and say its part of electric synergy. I agree if they bought GM people might value them like a car company.

Tesla kinda already does through Solar City's microgen now Tesla Energy.

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[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Krovikan

Tesla kinda already does through Solar City's microgen now Tesla Energy.

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I'm looking at that from a scale perspective. For them to move the needle on their market cap they'd need to make a $100 B acquisition.

It isn't that there would actually be synergies, its that you could pay for it in overvalued stock and then Musk could go on Twitter and talk about synergies.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I'm looking at that from a scale perspective. For them to move the needle on their market cap they'd need to make a $100 B acquisition.



It isn't that there would actually be synergies, its that you could pay for it in overvalued stock and then Musk could go on Twitter and talk about synergies.

They'd have to buy someone like DUK or NEE to make a dent.