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Old 01-08-2020, 03:22 PM   #41
Red_Baron
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Maybe it's different in a two crew operation but I was taught:

Aviate
Navigate
Communicate

For your priorities when operating an aircraft.
I'm not a pilot so I will conced that one to you.


However, the planes GPS system ceased transmitting at the same time as the plane failed to ascend. Something incapacitated the pilots and the plane.
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Old 01-08-2020, 03:24 PM   #42
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Marc Garneau was very guarded during the press conference and offered little new. The pane took off, had a proper ascent profile and then we lost contact with it.


Trudeau was asked directly if he thought the plane was shot down, he danced around it a bit with its too early to speculate, which was the only answer that he could give.
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Old 01-08-2020, 03:25 PM   #43
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Apparently the flight was delayed an hour due to a maintenance issue which pushed it well into the middle of the night. Not sure what flying curfew is there but could have been an unexpected time for a commercial flight. AA crew on high alert sees a low flying aircraft come out of nowhere (stealth bomber?) and panics. Seems plausible to me. Ironically the MH flight shot down in Ukraine was also not where it was supposed to be due to weather IIRC. Sad that unplanned events put both planes in harms way, if that’s what actually happened in Iran.

Why airspace wasn’t closed and why the missile was fired are two big questions the Iranians would need to answer for if this is the situation.
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Old 01-08-2020, 03:30 PM   #44
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Its a valid theory, There have been careful leaks by a "un named Western Intelligence agency" that it wasn't a missile shoot down. It could have been any number of low to mid range AAA guns.



It could also have been a bomb plant.



Iran will come under intense pressure to release the black boxes.
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Old 01-08-2020, 03:39 PM   #45
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Could also have been an accidental drone strike.
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Old 01-08-2020, 03:47 PM   #46
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5 security sources (3 American, 1 European and 1 Canadian) tell Reuters that the initial intelligence is that plane suffered technical malfunction and wasn’t hit by missile...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-i...-idUSKBN1Z70EL
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Old 01-08-2020, 03:48 PM   #47
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"According to Ukrainian Airlines, 168 people purchased tickets for the flight. That suggests one person did not board the flight.
The plane never made it above 2,400 metres in the air, according to data from the flight-tracking website FlightRadar24."

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world...id=mailsignout
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Old 01-08-2020, 04:08 PM   #48
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5 security sources (3 American, 1 European and 1 Canadian) tell Reuters that the initial intelligence is that plane suffered technical malfunction and wasn’t hit by missile...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-i...-idUSKBN1Z70EL

I've also seen a interview on CTV where a gentleman said it looks like the plane suffered a high intensity collision.


Its too early to speculate, the Black Boxes and or satellite information is going to be key.
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Old 01-08-2020, 04:20 PM   #49
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The fact that there were so many Canadians on board is barely registering in US media. I guess mostly because of all the other Iran stuff, but still a little weird.
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Old 01-08-2020, 05:32 PM   #50
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The fact that there were so many Canadians on board is barely registering in US media. I guess mostly because of all the other Iran stuff, but still a little weird.
While we Canadians are deeply entrenched in American media and things in general that involve that country, it definitely doesn't go the other way. I think that's just the reality.

I think in this case, I'm leaning towards the theory that the plane was shot down by accident. Lots of misses for that to happen, including Iran not managing their airspace better given everything that was happening last night. Such a tragedy for all these innocent lives to be lost due to all of this.
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Old 01-08-2020, 05:41 PM   #51
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So if this wasn't some kind of catastrophic failure of the aircraft (and I have a hard time believing it was until more information is known), Trump would have managed to kill more Canadians than Iranians in this conflict.
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Old 01-08-2020, 06:12 PM   #52
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138 of the passengers were going to continue on to Canada from Kiev. CBC interviewed a guy at Pearson from that flight, who said the seat next to him was empty and he knew it was because the person who was supposed to sit there was gone.
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Old 01-08-2020, 06:14 PM   #53
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Global reporting two victims being from Calgary
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Old 01-08-2020, 06:48 PM   #54
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138 of the passengers were going to continue on to Canada from Kiev. CBC interviewed a guy at Pearson from that flight, who said the seat next to him was empty and he knew it was because the person who was supposed to sit there was gone.
What a terrible realization
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Old 01-08-2020, 06:57 PM   #55
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What a terrible realization
Yeah, that flight would have been about half full
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Old 01-08-2020, 07:21 PM   #56
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I find myself extremely sad tonight. We have it pretty good in Canada. This touches home. The world can be nasty. Hug the ones you love.
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Old 01-09-2020, 01:35 AM   #57
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Amazes me there are still major carriers flying over Iran airspace, Emirates with 777 and A380's. If there's known ground-to-air missiles in the area, and a questionable crash just happened, I would be rerouting.

The last time I flew over that region, from Gatwick to Dubai on an Emirates A380 we routed around Iraq and Syria, due to high risk airspace.....Its a much larger detour for one of their major routes just due to the sheer size and location of Iran, so who knows what their thoughts are, but I'm just pointing out they are risk averse in my experience.
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Old 01-09-2020, 09:33 AM   #58
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Oh boy, only being reported by Newsweek so far (I'd wait for more confirmation from other sources):

"The Ukrainian flight that crashed just outside the Iranian capital of Tehran was struck by an anti-aircraft missile system, a Pentagon official, a senior U.S. intelligence official and an Iraqi intelligence official told Newsweek."

"The aircraft is believed to have been struck by a Russia-built Tor-M1 surface-to-air missile system, known to NATO as Gauntlet, the three officials told Newsweek."

https://www.newsweek.com/iranians-sh...ources-1481313
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Old 01-09-2020, 09:37 AM   #59
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Oh boy, only being reported by Newsweek so far (I'd wait for more confirmation from other sources):

"The Ukrainian flight that crashed just outside the Iranian capital of Tehran was struck by an anti-aircraft missile system, a Pentagon official, a senior U.S. intelligence official and an Iraqi intelligence official told Newsweek."

"The aircraft is believed to have been struck by a Russia-built Tor-M1 surface-to-air missile system, known to NATO as Gauntlet, the three officials told Newsweek."

https://www.newsweek.com/iranians-sh...ources-1481313
This is not surprising at all. Unfortunately
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Old 01-09-2020, 09:44 AM   #60
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1215309192086675459
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