Let's talk about Cryptocurrencies

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by dino7c

15 years is a long bubble especially when it has lost 80% of its value and returned to all time highs

The BTC bubble is only about 4 years long, which is pretty typical, the only unusual part is the price collapsing then rebounding, normally a bubbles collapse is terminal

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

The BTC bubble is only about 4 years long, which is pretty typical, the only unusual part is the price collapsing then rebounding, normally a bubbles collapse is terminal

so, not a bubble
bubbles burst...they don't reinflate

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by dino7c

so, not a bubble
bubbles burst...they don't reinflate

well it could be what economists refer to as an echo bubble, it happens

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

well it could be what economists refer to as an echo bubble, it happens

[Cappy]

Anytime i see this bumped, i'm like "oh, crypto news, lets see!" only to find Dino flexing

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Cappy

Anytime i see this bumped, i'm like "oh, crypto news, lets see!" only to find Dino flexing

Well you haven't been following too closely lately then, there has been plenty of news

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Azure

The utility of it means nothing. The only thing that matters is what value does the market place it at.

I'm not disputing this at all. I'm saying people don't understand why it has value because it doesn't appear to provide anything useful to society at large.

Credit to dino for sticking with it and doing enough research to anticipate where the valuation is headed. It's just harder for people who haven't done that research to trust it, IMO.

Mind you, that could also be true for many investments. The way the market values certain assets makes zero sense to me at times.

[Bill Bumface]

I don't see it being that different than gold. Gold has some utility, but not anywhere near enough to justify the value of it, or necessitate throwing tons of it in vaults around the world to do nothing.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

I don't see it being that different than gold. Gold has some utility, but not anywhere near enough to justify the value of it, or necessitate throwing tons of it in vaults around the world to do nothing.

Well the main difference is about 55,000 years of history and to a lesser extent its use for jewelry and electronics, it's also more easily traded, right now 10,000 dollars worth of gold is alot more useful in Gaza or Haiti I'm guessing, I assume you can't do much with crypto if you have no access to power and the internet.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

I don't see it being that different than gold. Gold has some utility, but not anywhere near enough to justify the value of it, or necessitate throwing tons of it in vaults around the world to do nothing.

The other thing about Gold that we tend to forget as we are living in a huge Gold spike is that the price of gold in 1916 was the same as it's price in 2000, that Gold has always been a dreadful place to put money

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

The other thing about Gold that we tend to forget as we are living in a huge Gold spike is that the price of gold in 1916 was the same as it's price in 2000, that Gold has always been a dreadful place to put money

Agreed, my point was that golds primary value is merely belief in its value. While having some utility, it's basically a pure emotionally driven market. This is why I don't invest in gold or crypto, besides what gets tangled into my full market ETFs.

Those tulips had some utility back in the day too...

[dino7c]

the tulips craze totally lasted 15 years and had the worlds richest people buying in

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by jammies

Motherf***er. K, avatar me.

tick tock

[DoubleF]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I haven't predicted the exact numbers but I have called nearly every major spike in the last 7 years and it wasn't based on spinning a wheel or flipping a coin. When the demand is high and the supply is squeezed it goes up. As more and more of the limited supply is acquired by "stronger hands" the likelihood of a total collapse goes down considerably. BTC started in 2009, if it's a scam or a scheme its a pretty long play. I'm old enough to remember the .com crash and when this whole internet fad was done because the entire world aren't just going to become computer nerds and do all their shopping and conversing online...

Remember we are talking 21M limited supply but some are lost and unrecoverable so it is even less than that, the demand is obvious. These ETFs are taking in BILLIONS.

I've done my research on crypto and I basically concluded the opposite as you. I was a bag holder to the tune of around $900 when e-gold went into the ground after a friend convinced me to "invest" in it. This caused me to be more hesitant to really put money into Bitcoin. I was messing around with Bitcoin when it was around $60-80 a coin, then again when it was around $350 per coin and I concluded it was a weird bet, not an investment. To this day I still have the same opinion that the current iterations of the coins/tokens themselves don't provide enough for me to take them seriously.

You had no idea how hard I rolled my eyes during the crypto craze after the cannabis craze. The amount of people that spewed the same back of the book crypto intro annoyed me to no end. Rarely could I even find anyone who understood how a block chain worked or what the ledger was. It was just parroted words. I don't like emotional investing, so I wasn't about to rush into Crypto when other were doing that with barely any idea what it even was.

You on the other hand, you've gone deep and concluded opposite of me. I still stand by my stance though. The current iterations of the tokens and coins are IMO of questionable value and I'm not taking that risk. A new version will be created one day that is backed by something of actual value. I just am not sure if the old coins would retain value during the transition. I seriously do wish I had forgotten about a few and I could pay off my mortgage though . Oh well.

I honestly believe future crypto must be backed by an asset. My belief is that future crypto coins will be backed by stocks. Something like Tesla coin, each backed by Tesla stock. This I would put money into. My belief for NFTs is that many are basically useless. However, their evolution will make them useful for DRM, digital COA and perhaps a neat bonus that could be added to a physical asset.

[Jason14h]

I’m not following a coin backed by a stock . Isn’t that just …. A stock ?

The whole purpose of a “stock” is it is ownership in a company / backed by the companies “value” as an asset. They are relatively liquid and tradeable / transferable . What would the coin “do” that owning the stock doesn’t ? (Companies basically already tried this with utility coins and the SEC was not happy and stopped it )

Crypto having a bad morning ! I blame this thread

[Tiger]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

I’m not following a coin backed by a stock . Isn’t that just …. A stock ?

The whole purpose of a “stock” is it is ownership in a company / backed by the companies “value” as an asset. They are relatively liquid and tradeable / transferable . What would the coin “do” that owning the stock doesn’t ? (Companies basically already tried this with utility coins and the SEC was not happy and stopped it )

Crypto having a bad morning ! I blame this thread

It does make perfect sense though that the stock market would go to a blockchain.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by dino7c

the tulips craze totally lasted 15 years and had the worlds richest people buying in

The worlds richest people weren't buying tulip contracts?

I also didn't know that all bubbles had a fixed expiry time.

The whole S&P 500 could be a decades long bubble.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

The worlds richest people weren't buying tulip contracts?

I also didn't know that all bubbles had a fixed expiry time.

The whole S&P 500 could be a decades long bubble.

I suppose everything is worthless, the world will eventually be wiped out by an asteroid...luckily you guys won't be around to say I told you so

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

The other thing about Gold that we tend to forget as we are living in a huge Gold spike is that the price of gold in 1916 was the same as it's price in 2000, that Gold has always been a dreadful place to put money

After inflation. The actual price went up about 14x.

And you really can't compare gold standard era prices to post Bretton Woods system prices because under the gold standard the price was set by the government and static, increasing only twice in nearly 140 years between 1833 and 1971. Since the end of Bretton Woods in the early '70s, gold has increased in price by about 57x for an annualized return of about 8%. Not as good as the stock market (which averaged about 10% CAGR in that span), but still a pretty good return all things considered.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by opendoor

After inflation. The actual price went up about 14x.

And you really can't compare gold standard era prices to post Bretton Woods system prices because under the gold standard the price was set by the government and static, increasing only twice in nearly 140 years between 1833 and 1971. Since the end of Bretton Woods in the early '70s, gold has increased in price by about 57x for an annualized return of about 8%. Not as good as the stock market (which averaged about 10% CAGR in that span), but still a pretty good return all things considered.

Picking 1970 is convenient though as gold went up 5x between 1970 and 1974, and 9x between 1970-80 .

Heck gold hit a high of $843 in 1980!! The new high is $2100 nearly 45 years later haha .

Gold stayed between $200-$300 for 20 years in the 80 and 90s before breaking out in 2002 . It has been a 7x increase over the 20 years since then

If you start from the early 80s the return on gold is bad in the last 40 years