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Old 01-13-2019, 10:00 AM   #1
Nadal Fan
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Default Let's talk Box Office

So on the day that Aquaman crosses $1 billion at the box office I thought it would be a good idea to start a box office thread.

It's total is now at $1.02 billion which puts it ahead of The Dark Knight for 2nd place all time for DC Comics, and only $64 million behind The Dark Knight Rises. The Dark Knight made a billion with no China release and no 3D bump.

Some other updates: Into the Spiderverse is up to $300 million, Bumblebee is at $365 million and Mary Poppins Returns is up to $290 million.

As well the first tracking for Captain Marvel is out and opening weekend is set for $160 million for a total estimate of $465 million.
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Old 01-13-2019, 02:07 PM   #2
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Aquaman has a very interesting box office split with only 275 so far domestic so likely finishes around 310 or so. So that will mean over 70% of the gross is foreign.

The typical superhero movies have been more in the 66% range.

What drove Aquaman to do so well in China. Was James Wan enough to have it out perform the rest of the world so much?
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Old 01-13-2019, 02:39 PM   #3
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Can someone explain why people care so much about domestic box office versus worldwide gross? It's all money to the movie whether it comes from the US versus the rest of the world. So what if it gets 2/3rd of its money elsewhere?
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Old 01-13-2019, 04:07 PM   #4
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Can someone explain why people care so much about domestic box office versus worldwide gross? It's all money to the movie whether it comes from the US versus the rest of the world. So what if it gets 2/3rd of its money elsewhere?
I believe studios keep a larger percentage of box office gross from domestic than international. China studios keep even less.
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Old 01-13-2019, 10:39 PM   #5
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Is Captain Marvel really tracking for that much? I'm pretty excited to see it, as the marvel cosmic stuff is done of their best stuff. I always assumed CM would appeal more to the comic book than the general audience though.

I would be shocked if the multiplier was that high though.
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Old 01-13-2019, 11:40 PM   #6
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Studios love the foreign money in a real world sense, but rely on domestic figures for a gauge of how good the movie really is, and how it will perform in the secondary (dvd, netflix, legacy) market.

The Chinese market drives some serious blockbuster dollars, but some of the 'hits' in China are absolute nonsensical drivel.

The Dark Knight vs. Aquaman is a good example. Domestic figures say that Aquaman is good, but Dark Knight is great. Stands up.
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Old 01-14-2019, 07:05 AM   #7
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I'll be surprised if Captain Marvel doesn't hit $500 mill in North America to be honest. First female MCU led film, has little competition for weeks, ties directly into End-game and MCU is super hot right now.

Aquaman actually finishes in the #2 slot this weekend as The Upside pulled the upset and finished #1. Next week Glass comes out and even with low reviews it should still finish comfortably at #1 and unfortunately take away a lot of screens for Aquaman.
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Old 01-14-2019, 09:26 AM   #8
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I'll be surprised if Captain Marvel doesn't hit $500 mill in North America to be honest. First female MCU led film, has little competition for weeks, ties directly into End-game and MCU is super hot right now.

Aquaman actually finishes in the #2 slot this weekend as The Upside pulled the upset and finished #1. Next week Glass comes out and even with low reviews it should still finish comfortably at #1 and unfortunately take away a lot of screens for Aquaman.
I'm actually pretty excited for Glass. The reviews are mixed, but the genuine comic book guys seem to like it. The budget is only 20 million, so it should definitely be profitable and hopefully lead to another sequel.
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Old 01-14-2019, 09:45 AM   #9
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I'm actually pretty excited for Glass. The reviews are mixed, but the genuine comic book guys seem to like it. The budget is only 20 million, so it should definitely be profitable and hopefully lead to another sequel.
Really? Holy smokes. I'm surprised they got just the cast in under 20 million.

People must have really wanted to make it and worked for some cut rates.
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Old 01-14-2019, 10:45 AM   #10
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Really? Holy smokes. I'm surprised they got just the cast in under 20 million.

People must have really wanted to make it and worked for some cut rates.
The budget for Split was $9 million.

Shyamalan definitely deserves some criticism for some of his past efforts, but he is master of camera angle use and mood. He can make a cheap movie seem much more expensive than it is. Most of Split was filmed in a few rooms. He created the illusion of effects without actually using that many. From what I've heard Glass is a similar.
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Old 01-14-2019, 10:51 AM   #11
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I'll be surprised if Captain Marvel doesn't hit $500 mill in North America to be honest. First female MCU led film, has little competition for weeks, ties directly into End-game and MCU is super hot right now.

Aquaman actually finishes in the #2 slot this weekend as The Upside pulled the upset and finished #1. Next week Glass comes out and even with low reviews it should still finish comfortably at #1 and unfortunately take away a lot of screens for Aquaman.
I'd be very surprised if CM hits $500 million. They seem to be basing the estimates entirely on pre-sales and comparing those to BP and IW. The problem is that BP was only estimated to open at $90 million based on its pre-sales. It opened at $202 million. Drawing analogies to other superhero movies based on BP's performance is inherently flawed.

I'd say a better comparable for CM is Doctor Strange. It will probably be do better than that. But at $500 million domestic, you're looking at an east 1 billion internationally. I can't see much more than $800 million for CM. So maybe $300-$350 million domestic.
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Old 01-14-2019, 01:03 PM   #12
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I'm also super excited for Glass! IIRC when Unbreakable came out it got poor reviews and now its seen as one of the better superhero films of all time especially non- Marvel/DC ones!

I have a feeling about CM it will be a huge hit. Not BP big because that movie was bigger than almost any movie domestically ever, but I still am predicting around $500mill. I have a feeling the movie will be received well by critics and audiences, there hasn't been a MCU film that isn't certified fresh on RT and I don't see the streak ending soon. Seems like we have a friendly battle going on here Blankall! Good luck may the odds ever be in your favor
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Old 01-14-2019, 01:08 PM   #13
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Brie Larson is a legit actress with the spotlight on her, she will make good use of it and earn a tonne of money. I could see it rivaling BP, it's got a woman lead and the public is hungry for that.
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Old 01-14-2019, 01:28 PM   #14
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$500mil seems a bit high, but not impossible. I don't think the "She's a girl!" factor is nearly as much of a social factor as Black Panther's race-related factors. Wonder Woman was THE first female-led superhero movie (of the modern era, at least), got good reviews, had good word of mouth, and still leveled out at $410 -- that seems like a realistic spot for Captain Marvel if you ask me.
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Old 01-14-2019, 01:31 PM   #15
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The budget for Split was $9 million.

Shyamalan definitely deserves some criticism for some of his past efforts, but he is master of camera angle use and mood. He can make a cheap movie seem much more expensive than it is. Most of Split was filmed in a few rooms. He created the illusion of effects without actually using that many. From what I've heard Glass is a similar.
Yeah for sure I can imagine they can be made pretty cheaply.

But a lot of these actors have quotas they are normally paid for films. It wouldn't surprise me if all 3 of Jackson, Willis and McAvoy have quotas of $5m+. Just saying they must be working for cheaper than normal. Paulsson as well.
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Old 01-14-2019, 02:57 PM   #16
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$500mil seems a bit high, but not impossible. I don't think the "She's a girl!" factor is nearly as much of a social factor as Black Panther's race-related factors. Wonder Woman was THE first female-led superhero movie (of the modern era, at least), got good reviews, had good word of mouth, and still leveled out at $410 -- that seems like a realistic spot for Captain Marvel if you ask me.
Nope, I disagree. Captain Marvel has the Avengers Endgame hype train pushing it on the tracks, as well as, the woman lead. The MeToo movement has only grown stronger since Wonder Woman debuted. Plus I think CM will actually be a GOOD movie so it will draw all of the different crowds into play. Sky is the limit.
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Old 01-14-2019, 03:18 PM   #17
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Yeah for sure I can imagine they can be made pretty cheaply.

But a lot of these actors have quotas they are normally paid for films. It wouldn't surprise me if all 3 of Jackson, Willis and McAvoy have quotas of $5m+. Just saying they must be working for cheaper than normal. Paulsson as well.
Shyamalan self-financed Split, and he probably provided McAvoy with a relatively large percentage of profits. I'm sure that the major cast of Glass has some kind of back end deal too.

I managed to avoid spoilers on Split, and didn't know it was a sequel until the very end. That surprise alone has me interested in Glass.
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Old 01-15-2019, 06:07 PM   #18
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After the trailer what is everyone expecting Spider-Man to make? I'm thinking around $350-$400 million minimum up to $500 million max.
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Old 01-15-2019, 10:09 PM   #19
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Can someone explain why people care so much about domestic box office versus worldwide gross? It's all money to the movie whether it comes from the US versus the rest of the world. So what if it gets 2/3rd of its money elsewhere?
Personally I follow domestic very closely because I'm in a movie pool that only counts domestic take, not international! I also highly recommend movie pools, great way to throw a little cash down and #### talk friends for a night with the draft.
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Old 01-16-2019, 08:30 AM   #20
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I don’t think Spider-Man breaks $400mil. It’s only got a couple weeks before Lion King comes out and massacres the box office.
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