Friedman's 31 thoughts Post trade deadline edition

[bax]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I think swapping out Hall for Gaudreau would be part of a restructuring of the whole forward core—not just individual parts. In that event, the Flames likely run with one of the following two combinations as the roster is currently configured:

Hall · Monahan · Lindholm
Tkachuk · Backlund · Mangiapane

Tkachuk · Monahan · Lindholm
Hall · Backlund · Mangiapane

This does not take into consideration the addition of any assets returned in a Gaudreau trade, but this on its own would shift the responsibility more to Monahan and Lindholm to carry the puck, which in my opinion is not a bad thing. I have always thought that Monahan defers to Gaudreau instinctively, and far too often. Impressing upon the players some different looks that require them to alter their own game can often produce better results.

I don’t mind giving Lindholm more responsibly to carry the puck, but I don’t want that for Monahan. He is a unique center in that he finds the quiet areas and has a wicked release. His skating and elusiveness are nowhere near good enough to be the good dominating zone entries.

I like the idea of having Hall and Gaudreau on separate lines because they are both elite and getting into the offensive zone. Hall isn’t as good as a passer as Gaudreau, so I don’t like him with Monahan and Tkachuk doesn’t have the skating to be effective with Monahan in my opinion.

[Erick Estrada]

I'm pretty sure the team has Valimaki pencilled in a top 4 role next season. I have to think that there's a good possibility they retain one or both of Gustafson and Forbort if they show well down the stretch. The team has missed Gio but have they really missed Hamonic that much?

[GioforPM]

^

So much to unpack there because of the random thoughts. But first of all, as to who carries the puck if not JG? Well, Hall I guess. The choice between Hall and Gaudreau is twofold: (a) can you keep Hall around longer and more reasonably than Gaudreau in two years? and (b) whose game is more suited to the way the league is going?

Mangiapane's "significant raise" is still going to be an RFA deal and I doubt it's over $3M (probably a lot closer to $2M). Hamonic is on a nice deal but IMO can be replaced by an even cheaper one. Or maybe he's surprised at what offers come in and returns here.
Yelesin can make the team. Kylington won't make more than $1M. Valimaki will be one the team on an ELC deal.

The big loss is Brodie, but these things happen. Maybe you trade Gio and create room. Maybe you trade Hanifin and make room.

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I'm pretty sure the team has Valimaki pencilled in a top 4 role next season. I have to think that there's a good possibility they retain one or both of Gustafson and Forbort if they show well down the stretch. The team has missed Gio but have they really missed Hamonic that much?

Arguably, they have been better without Hamonic.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I'm pretty sure the team has Valimaki pencilled in a top 4 role next season. I have to think that there's a good possibility they retain one or both of Gustafson and Forbort if they show well down the stretch. The team has missed Gio but have they really missed Hamonic that much?

No (and I defend him more than most). I think Forbort could replace him if he could play off hand.

Valimaki plays left side, no? To put him top 4 you move Gio or Hanifin. I wouldn't be horrified at moving on from Hanifin if you can get a good return. But it's pretty risky given Valimaki's experience and injury history.

ETA: It might improve the expansion situation though.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

If that scenario plays out, don't expect an established star to be part of the package for Gaudreau. Hall and UFA signings on defence will eat up too much of the cap.

I tend to agree. The Flames could land a top 10 pick or high end prospect with a Gaudreau trade.

I am not sure how they can afford Hall without shipping out a $5M+ salary

[tvp2003]

Not a big fan of signing Hall, especially if its for big term and AAV (which it probably will be).

I think you could get a very good return for Hanifin. He's signed for four more years at $4.95M, so there is lots of term at a reasonable to good cap hit (even if he is close to his ceiling as a second pairing guy).

Regardless of which star we trade, I will only be satisfied if it's a multi-player deal with Toronto for a bunch of reclamation projects. It's really the Calgary way.

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I'm pretty sure the team has Valimaki pencilled in a top 4 role next season. I have to think that there's a good possibility they retain one or both of Gustafson and Forbort if they show well down the stretch. The team has missed Gio but have they really missed Hamonic that much?

Valimaki hasn't played in almost a year and played fewer than 50 games last year, there is absolutely no way they are penciling him in as a top 4 defenseman at this point in time. I love Vali, but the guy has just 24 NHL games.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

Not a big fan of signing Hall, especially if its for big term and AAV (which it probably will be).

I think you could get a very good return for Hanifin. He's signed for four more years at $4.95M, so there is lots of term at a reasonable to good cap hit (even if he is close to his ceiling as a second pairing guy).

Regardless of which star we trade, I will only be satisfied if it's a multi-player deal with Toronto for a bunch of reclamation projects. It's really the Calgary way.

Calgary won the last trade with Toronto

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

In 1988-89 there was no cap. That's a huge factor. There's probably no way you could have a team with that many great players today, unless there are a bunch on ELCs (looking back, Joe N and Roberts would have been on ELCs and some other would have been on RFA contracts).

Yes, your entry-level deals and RFA contracts have to help there, but also remember that Gaudreau makes less than 7 million a year, Tkachuk is on a bridge, the Flames' top defencemen (who is aging) is less than 7.... This is the 'window' so to speak.


You can also look at other teams around the NHL like Tampa, Boston, etc., that have a number of 'star' players that you can consider elite. It is incredibly difficult to do, but the core on the team is signed for a certain window.

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I tend to agree. The Flames could land a top 10 pick or high end prospect with a Gaudreau trade.

I am not sure how they can afford Hall without shipping out a $5M+ salary

There is no way that Gaudreau will be returning a top 10 pick. No team in that situation is going to trade their top 10 pick for 2 years of Gaudreau. Philly is also not going to give up Konecny for Gaudreau - would you if you were Philly? I would keep the much younger player that I have way more years of control over.


Outside of getting lucky on a team that is over-aggressive and trying to contend or make a statement to their fans (Buffalo, I am looking at you!), it would be MAYBE two first round picks (low picks), and a decent roster player. Sure, they might end up being 1 Pastrnak and 1 Tarasenko, but they will more likely be 2 Jankowskis, or 1 Jankowski and 1 Bill Bumface.


Gaudreau will have to be traded for known quantities in (what I hope) is one roster player with upside still, or a package of prospects that the Flames are confident can step up into the NHL and start contributing on their ELCs (so really good prospects).


I guess another option is flipping the assets acquired in a Gaudreau trade and trying to acquire another player, even keeping some assets and using others to acquire additional help.


Still, I think this team needs to make some big moves in acquiring more talent, and not be so concerned with the asset pool. I will gladly welcome a cycle of 9 year rebuilds with one great Stanley Cup winning season every 10 years.


This rebuild started in the 2012-13 season (Monahan). The Flames today are a bubble-team. Either tear it down and start over, or add to this core and see where it can go. Acquiring good pieces and then sending good pieces away I just don't see as being overly productive, especially when I believe this team to be constructed rather decently, but suffers from poor coaching.


The whole point of rebuilding was to build a contender... so do what you need to do to build one. The whole point of rebuilding is to accumulate assets. A great team is able to do both exceptionally well (Tampa, Buffalo, etc), but there are points in the cycle that you simply have to go 'all in', and taking a look at the contracts of Monahan, Gaudreau, Tkachuk and Giordano, while having solid contracts on depth in Dube, Mangiapane, goaltending, etc., just reaffirms that to me.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

Yes, your entry-level deals and RFA contracts have to help there, but also remember that Gaudreau makes less than 7 million a year, Tkachuk is on a bridge, the Flames' top defencemen (who is aging) is less than 7.... This is the 'window' so to speak.


You can also look at other teams around the NHL like Tampa, Boston, etc., that have a number of 'star' players that you can consider elite. It is incredibly difficult to do, but the core on the team is signed for a certain window.





There is no way that Gaudreau will be returning a top 10 pick. No team in that situation is going to trade their top 10 pick for 2 years of Gaudreau. Philly is also not going to give up Konecny for Gaudreau - would you if you were Philly? I would keep the much younger player that I have way more years of control over.


Outside of getting lucky on a team that is over-aggressive and trying to contend or make a statement to their fans (Buffalo, I am looking at you!), it would be MAYBE two first round picks (low picks), and a decent roster player. Sure, they might end up being 1 Pastrnak and 1 Tarasenko, but they will more likely be 2 Jankowskis, or 1 Jankowski and 1 Bill Bumface.

.

Derek Stepan+Annti Raanta package returned a top 10 pick. Jordan Staal returned a top 10 pick, Jeff Carter also did

It certainly can be done. Teams in perpetual rebuilds that need to move the needle immediately like a Buffalo, New Jersey, Chicago, Montreal are all teams that want to win sooner than later and adding a 27 year old superstar signed for less than $7M for the next 2 years and someone who can be a key piece for the next 5-7 years could easily return that value.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

...This rebuild started in the 2012-13 season (Monahan). The Flames today are a bubble-team. Either tear it down and start over, or add to this core and see where it can go. Acquiring good pieces and then sending good pieces away I just don't see as being overly productive, especially when I believe this team to be constructed rather decently, but suffers from poor coaching.

The whole point of rebuilding was to build a contender... so do what you need to do to build one. The whole point of rebuilding is to accumulate assets. A great team is able to do both exceptionally well (Tampa, Buffalo, etc), but there are points in the cycle that you simply have to go 'all in', and taking a look at the contracts of Monahan, Gaudreau, Tkachuk and Giordano, while having solid contracts on depth in Dube, Mangiapane, goaltending, etc., just reaffirms that to me.

I don't believe that the Flames are actually a bubble team. They find themselves on the playoff bubble in a year that has unfolded terribly, featured a controversial coaching change and in which their top players are all playing well below career averages. The team as it is constructed is probably not the second best team in the NHL that won the WC in a walk last season. But by the same token, they are also better than this, and should be jockeying with VGK for the Division title.

[dino7c]

Flames are a top team since Ward took over... record wise, which is all that matters.

People forget the Flames were 10+ points back of the Oilers

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I don't believe that the Flames are actually a bubble team. They find themselves on the playoff bubble in a year that has unfolded terribly, featured a controversial coaching change and in which their top players are all playing well below career averages. The team as it is constructed is probably not the second best team in the NHL that won the WC in a walk last season. But by the same token, they are also better than this, and should be jockeying with VGK for the Division title.

They are a couple wins away from doing just that.

Finish the trip strong and they go from fighting to stay in it to fighting for top spot. The top players are all rounding back into form, with the exception of maybe Monahan. We'll see if his last game carries over.

[Toonage]

Had they beaten L.A. a few more times (and Ottawa prior to the break) right with Vegas is exactly where they would be.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

Yes, your entry-level deals and RFA contracts have to help there, but also remember that Gaudreau makes less than 7 million a year, Tkachuk is on a bridge, the Flames' top defencemen (who is aging) is less than 7.... This is the 'window' so to speak.


You can also look at other teams around the NHL like Tampa, Boston, etc., that have a number of 'star' players that you can consider elite. It is incredibly difficult to do, but the core on the team is signed for a certain window.





There is no way that Gaudreau will be returning a top 10 pick. No team in that situation is going to trade their top 10 pick for 2 years of Gaudreau. Philly is also not going to give up Konecny for Gaudreau - would you if you were Philly? I would keep the much younger player that I have way more years of control over.


Outside of getting lucky on a team that is over-aggressive and trying to contend or make a statement to their fans (Buffalo, I am looking at you!), it would be MAYBE two first round picks (low picks), and a decent roster player. Sure, they might end up being 1 Pastrnak and 1 Tarasenko, but they will more likely be 2 Jankowskis, or 1 Jankowski and 1 Bill Bumface.


Gaudreau will have to be traded for known quantities in (what I hope) is one roster player with upside still, or a package of prospects that the Flames are confident can step up into the NHL and start contributing on their ELCs (so really good prospects).


I guess another option is flipping the assets acquired in a Gaudreau trade and trying to acquire another player, even keeping some assets and using others to acquire additional help.


Still, I think this team needs to make some big moves in acquiring more talent, and not be so concerned with the asset pool. I will gladly welcome a cycle of 9 year rebuilds with one great Stanley Cup winning season every 10 years.


This rebuild started in the 2012-13 season (Monahan). The Flames today are a bubble-team. Either tear it down and start over, or add to this core and see where it can go. Acquiring good pieces and then sending good pieces away I just don't see as being overly productive, especially when I believe this team to be constructed rather decently, but suffers from poor coaching.


The whole point of rebuilding was to build a contender... so do what you need to do to build one. The whole point of rebuilding is to accumulate assets. A great team is able to do both exceptionally well (Tampa, Buffalo, etc), but there are points in the cycle that you simply have to go 'all in', and taking a look at the contracts of Monahan, Gaudreau, Tkachuk and Giordano, while having solid contracts on depth in Dube, Mangiapane, goaltending, etc., just reaffirms that to me.

Buffalo? Maybe I'm missing your point here or did you mean Boston?

[Strange Brew]

For a team in the thick of a playoff race two days after trade deadline there sure is a lot of talk about off season trades. I get it though as it will be a big off season.

I wouldn't be that surprised if the club re-signs Hamonic for more $'s than people will like, and Hall doesn't end up coming here. The "big" off season trade bends up being Hanifin and Dube or Mangiapane for a veteran top line forward.

[Harry Lime]

Considering Forbort and Gustafsson both have had down years, as their respective UFA years, I don't think that re-signing them would take much more money than what they are receiving right now, on a three or four year term. I see this defense as strong :

Giordano - Gustafsson
Hanifin - Andersson
Valimaki - Kylington/Yelesin

If you wanted to trade Hanifin and substitute Forbort, I think that you can get a haul almost as big as Gaudreau for him.

Far from ramshackle.

[Flash Walken]

Recent injuries not withstanding the flames have been incredibly fortunate this year with injuries. All the other Pacific teams with the exception of Los Angeles have had to weather more significant injury issues than the flames.

Healthy lineup vs healthy lineup, the flames would struggle to make the playoffs.

Luck is definitely a part of the game, but the flames have been extremely fortunate (knock on wood) to have avoided significant injuries to their top 6 players this year.

The Blues have been without their top scorer from last season for basically the whole year and are going to win the west.

If you look at WAR adjusted impact to the injury situation, the only team in the Pacific with a less impactful injury situation is Los Angeles.

There are only 4 other teams in the whole league this year less impacted by injuries than the flames have been this year : the kings, senators, canes and rangers.

It's important to look at the rest of the league when assessing where the flames fit into things. Where would the flames be if they were missing 17 games from Monahan and Backlund or Lindholm? Vegas had marchessault and karlsson out of the lineup at the same time I'm pretty sure.

20 games from Derek Ryan?

Injuries to a goalie?

I don't think it's out of line to call them a bubble team.

Gaudreau playing poorly is a heck of a lot different than not having him in the lineup at all.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Flames are a top team since Ward took over... record wise, which is all that matters.

People forget the Flames were 10+ points back of the Oilers

The Flames are log jammed in the middle of the pack and just 2 points away from being 20th in the league overall since Ward took over. I don't think that screams "top team". We all know their play hasn't backed that up either. Top teams are consistent night in, night out.

They might be starting to get there now, but let's not get ahead of ourselves until we see a few more nights like the Boston game. Can we also please not use the Oilers as a barometer for anything other than being no good. Yuck.