Electric vehicle war, is gas soon to be toast?

[Fuzz]

So does anyone else think EV subsidies are a poor use of tax dollars at this point? It kinda seems like EV's are selling faster than they can be manufactured, which is increasing their costs. Do we need to incentivize shortages? Who does this help? Not people who can't afford new vehicles. Globally it's recognized raw materials are going to be a pinch point, not a lack of interest. So manufacturers will charge more because they can, and have to for the raw materials.


I could seen incentives if prices were high and no one was buying them, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Perhaps incentives for EV's under $30k would be wiser, since nothing exists there, and manufacturers may look at smaller cheaper offerings, since they don't do that due to lower margins. They also use fewer materials, so you can make more of them with limited supplies. We need EV's for everyone, and the current policy doesn't really do that.

[zamler]

I think you've just discovered governments don't spend our money for the good of humanity but for other reasons.

[You Need a Thneed]

The subsidies on the vehicles would be better spent on expanding charging infrastructure at this point.

[opendoor]

Basically all the data I've seen makes the case for EV subsidies look very weak for several reasons:

-as mentioned above, there is a supply constraint so the incentives aren't really driving marginal purchases.

-people who buy EVs right now already tend to drive efficient ICE vehicles, so the reduction in emissions is pretty slight. In fact, one study I saw said that switching from something like a Prius to a Hyundai Ioniq in places like Alberta or Saskatchewan actually results in an increase in CO2 emissions because of the relatively high-carbon electrical grid. So the government is subsidizing an increase in emissions in those cases.

-dollar for dollar, the money spent on EV subsidies would have a much bigger impact on GHG emissions if it was spent elsewhere (e.g. on lower carbon electricity generation)

[powderjunkie]

I'd be fine with reallocating the rebates, but we should recognize that the supply constraints are affecting all vehicle types right now, and gas prices have obviously spiked.

I honestly don't know the answer - is current demand an anomaly vs. 12/24/36 mths ago?


I agree it would be good to see more incentive for even lower price point. You probably don't want to highlight the environmental drawbacks of batteries at this point, but it would be great if we could see a ton of 'simple' EVS with ~200km range and OTD cost closer to $25k. The current trend will see everyone paying for + carrying around 2-3 times more battery (and rare metals) than necessary 364 days a year.

[Erick Estrada]

Has anyone even looked at the eligible vehicles list for Canada? It's full of extremely low volume vehicles that most consumers can't get their hands on and other ones that nobody wants. I don't really see it as a big issue as long as it doesn't apply to Teslas.

[Fuzz]

https://tc.canada.ca/en/road-transpo...r-izev-program


Doesn't look that bad...and some provinces have additional rebates.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://tc.canada.ca/en/road-transpo...r-izev-program


Doesn't look that bad...and some provinces have additional rebates.

How many Pacifica Hybrids have you seen rolling around? I've seen a small handful of i3's, Leafs, and Outlander rolling around but the sales of those cars are miniscule. A large portion of EV's sold in this country are Tesla so the rebate program to me isn't something to overly worry about as it's pretty minimal and some Canadians actually benefit from it compared to other government programs where money just vanishes and nobody benefits. It's one of those things where it's there for smart consumers to benefit but many can't be bothered, anti-EV, materialistic, etc.

https://driveteslacanada.ca/model-3/...g-car-overall/

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by opendoor

-people who buy EVs right now already tend to drive efficient ICE vehicles, so the reduction in emissions is pretty slight. In fact, one study I saw said that switching from something like a Prius to a Hyundai Ioniq in places like Alberta or Saskatchewan actually results in an increase in CO2 emissions because of the relatively high-carbon electrical grid. So the government is subsidizing an increase in emissions in those cases.

I'd really like to read that study if you come across it again.

[powderjunkie]

Hyundai/Kia seem to be going especially quickly into EV/PHEV options for a lot of models; according to EE's link they may not show up specifically on those sale lists...though supply constraints might be delaying how quickly sales happen, too.

We're looking at a new vehicle in the next year or so - our situation is fairly low mileage (~6000km/year) so it's harder to see the payback from fuel savings. Currently debating between Kia Seltos and Niro PHEV.

Including the $2500 incentive, Niro would be about $7500 more OTD. I forecast we'd save about $600 per year in fuel costs (but this will vary widely depending on actual miles driven/gas prices/elec prices), so 12 years or so to break even. Close enough that we'll just pick whichever one we like better, but removing the $2500 incentive would make us far more likely to pick the ICE.

In my case I'd say the incentive is not quite strong enough, but for more typical mileage it's probably right where it needs to be.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

I'd really like to read that study if you come across it again.

I think this is the one I saw:

https://pdf.sciencedirectassets.com/...230affd829f585

It's from 2019, but as far as I'm aware the kWh per 100km is basically the same nowadays. Though I believe the emissions for electricity generation have come down in Alberta in recent years, so the conclusions might not hold any longer. Regardless, there is likely only a very marginal reduction in emissions for an Alberta driver who switches from an efficient ICE to an EV. Though theoretically, that efficient ICE vehicle would then be driven by someone else who may switch from a higher emission vehicle, so the benefit might be broader than it may seem at first.

[Fuzz]

https://twitter.com/C2CRun


These guys are doing a coast to coast Tesla run. Scrolling through the most recent stops, they seem to be stopping almost every 2 hours to charge. They are on their way back, no the way out they said they did 4641km, with 27 supercharger stops. That's a stop every 172km. Looking at many of the posts, it seems they were low on charge often. This seems like a lot of stops with not much km covered. Be interesting to know what is going on.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

I'd be fine with reallocating the rebates, but we should recognize that the supply constraints are affecting all vehicle types right now, and gas prices have obviously spiked.

I honestly don't know the answer - is current demand an anomaly vs. 12/24/36 mths ago?


I agree it would be good to see more incentive for even lower price point. You probably don't want to highlight the environmental drawbacks of batteries at this point, but it would be great if we could see a ton of 'simple' EVS with ~200km range and OTD cost closer to $25k. The current trend will see everyone paying for + carrying around 2-3 times more battery (and rare metals) than necessary 364 days a year.

This is where I think the PHEVs make so much more sense to decarbonize the world. Extraction of materials for batteries is likely the current bottleneck to widespread adoption. So if you focused on 50k-100k range with Gas back up you satisfy probably 80% of the kilometres driven with 1/4 to 1/8 the batteries.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://twitter.com/C2CRun


These guys are doing a coast to coast Tesla run. Scrolling through the most recent stops, they seem to be stopping almost every 2 hours to charge. They are on their way back, no the way out they said they did 4641km, with 27 supercharger stops. That's a stop every 172km. Looking at many of the posts, it seems they were low on charge often. This seems like a lot of stops with not much km covered. Be interesting to know what is going on.

My friend did a road trip down to Utah in a Tesla and she hated the experience. Said they had to stop every two to 2.5 hours for a charge.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://twitter.com/C2CRun

These guys are doing a coast to coast Tesla run. Scrolling through the most recent stops, they seem to be stopping almost every 2 hours to charge. They are on their way back, no the way out they said they did 4641km, with 27 supercharger stops. That's a stop every 172km. Looking at many of the posts, it seems they were low on charge often. This seems like a lot of stops with not much km covered. Be interesting to know what is going on.

I imagine it's because charging gets way slower as the battery gets more charge. So technically to make the best time, it makes more sense to stop 3 times for 10-15 minute charges than it does to stop once for a full charge. Getting back to 100% while stopping on a road trip isn't really practical because of how long the last ~20% takes, which cuts down on a usable range in that situation.

[Derek Sutton]

Hiway road trippers are not the target for the EV market, this is the problem with government bills and mandates about eliminating gas powered cars and why anyone with half a brain can see it will not work. Electric cars are totally suitable for in town run around vehicles, while hi way travel still and will always require gas/ Diesel engines. The battery draw on a road tripping EV is horrendous, travel speed, going up hill, driving into the wind, radio, a/c, seat adjustments etc. are all sucking off that battery. Turning the radio volume up and down, skipping songs, adjusting the climate, the heads up display, adaptive cruise, blind spot monitoring and every other safety feature are also sucking up the battery, it is just not practical.

[Derek Sutton]

Originally Posted by opendoor

I imagine it's because charging gets way slower as the battery gets more charge. So technically to make the best time, it makes more sense to stop 3 times for 10-15 minute charges than it does to stop once for a full charge. Getting back to 100% while stopping on a road trip isn't really practical because of how long the last ~20% takes, which cuts down on a usable range in that situation.

But on a Cross Canada road trip they have to be very strategic about when and where they are charging. Another reason why city travel makes so much more sense, crying around town and keeping the car in the 40-80% range is easily doable.

[CASe333]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://twitter.com/C2CRun


These guys are doing a coast to coast Tesla run. Scrolling through the most recent stops, they seem to be stopping almost every 2 hours to charge. They are on their way back, no the way out they said they did 4641km, with 27 supercharger stops. That's a stop every 172km. Looking at many of the posts, it seems they were low on charge often. This seems like a lot of stops with not much km covered. Be interesting to know what is going on.

As opendoor pondered its because they are trying to fast charge 10-60% as this is way faster for Model3. Look at the chart I link below but spoiler charging rate drops off drastically above 60% for M3. That implies they are utilizing ~half the range so need to stop every 2-2.5hrs . I think 10-30% is sweet spot for fast charging M3 so they will always try to run it below 10% just to get best DC charging rates. Also checking latest tweets they hit a station that gave 73kW. I assume they only charge to what they need to get to the next supercharger in that case so that increases the amount of stops in their speed run across Canada.

https://insideevs.com/news/506759/te...niq5-charging/

[Fuzz]

Ya, see stuff like this makes me question exactly what will happen when everyone is in EV's. Summer road trips with everyone stopping to charge every 200km? Bike racks and trailers killing range? It convinces me even more that we should concentrate on lower range city cars where most people do the majority of their km. Hybrids and range extenders may make a lot of sense. That, and delivery vehicles and anything operating shorter range in the city. I think the Lightning is a great product, but it won't be replacing a tow vehicle for anything over a couple hours.

Will long range trucking ever work, unless they have range for a full day up to the driver's hour limits, when they can charge overnight?

When people see range numbers of 500km, and they have to drive 1000km, they'll think, ya, "I can stop once or twice at most for that trip." They won't think that after the 100% charge drains, they are in for misery.

[Superflyer]

Well this is how you push sales of electric vehicles.

GM will start tying executive compensation to electric vehicle targets