Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

That would be tampering.

Johnny is not supposed to know what his offers are until July 13...

I bet he knows without talking to a single NHL executive that there will be long-term offers coming his way in the range of eight-figures per year.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

Any word from Johnny's realtor?

When Kwahi left Toronto fans saw him buying moving boxes from Home Depot.

Get on it CP!

I might be wrong, but my impression was always that Gaudreau rented in Calgary, and went home every summer. This year would look no different from any other year since he has been here regardless of whether he chooses to re-sign or not.

[chummer]

nm

[Vinny01]

Landeskog and Stamkos signed before free agency to secure the 8 year deals. Stamkos was a free agent during the legal courting period so he was free to take meetings with teams.

Not sure of any elite player who would secure a max term deal return to their team after the possibility of signing 8 years was no longer on the table.

The Flames squeezed Johnny really hard on the last deal so it is Gaudreau’s turn. I am sure he will have the ability to secure the buyout proof deal and also negotiate a full NMC over the 8 year term as well as increase the AAV over 10 if he wants and the Flames will pay it

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Ryan Leslie has been a believer Johnny will walk and implies as much in this interview.

https://twitter.com/ringoffirecgy/st...ihawR_UvhcAVNw

Ryan is right, the offer should have come sooner.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

If he goes to Treliving and says he is going how does he know that the Flames do not have the best offer.

He is not supposed to know what he will get offered. He finds out that the best offer is 8M x 3 years then he really would glad to jump back to the Flames at 9.5 x 8.

Right now he either has or fully expects that there will be a better offer coming his way on July 13.... but he is not supposed to know for sure.

Taylor Hall thought he was getting a lot of huge offers when he had to settle for the 1 yr x 8 Buffalo deal.

No one answered: What top player waited until the deadline and then signed back with his current team?

The offer has be a lot better after July 13th because he's cut out a year of earnings.
8 x 9.5 = 76M - he'd need to know he has an offer of 7 x 10.9M to beat the total value.

If the Flames can go to 10.25, then he'd have to get $11.7M x 7 to beat that.

If he goes to free agency day - then you have to assume he's gone.

[ToraToraTora]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I might be wrong, but my impression was always that Gaudreau rented in Calgary, and went home every summer. This year would look no different from any other year since he has been here regardless of whether he chooses to re-sign or not.

Hopestreet dot ceeeeeaaaaaaaaa

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Ryan is right, the offer should have come sooner.

If you mean last summer - then sure. But he was also coming off two straight down years and you weren't sure what way he was going to go with Sutter. Signing him to a long term deal at that point was risky.

During the season - isn't the story that they both agreed to not talk contract?

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Lucic has already waived once for expansion. I’m sure he’ll waive to almost anywhere that will play him. It’s for less than a year.

And lots of older players love Arizona, competitive or not. Shane Doan once tried to sue to say his NMC prevented AZ from leaving town with him as part of the team.

There were rumours (or confirmation?) that he had agreed to waive his NMC as part of the deal to facilitate the Neal trade. So we could chalk up his waiving to getting out to Edmonton and leave it at that. No other explanation needed. He probably would have agreed to biting through his own legs if it meant getting out of Edmonton, but wouldn't expect him to do so now if asked by Calgary.

But there was also no chance for him to be selected, it wasn't at all a secret that his contract had massive negative value at the time. He may have agreed to waive it with the promise that the Flames not make a sign deal to entice him to be selected which would guarantee he would not be.

Also the Knights had made expansion teams look competitive, so Lucic could have thought in the 0.000000001% chance he was selected he wouldn't be going to a basement dweller like most salary floor teams are.

And there's a difference between waiving to go to Seattle where he would be there for a couple years with some stability for his family and agreeing to go to any random team as a soon-to-be UFA. Moving to a salary floor team would likely mean relocating for a couple months, relocating again as a trade deadline rental, and then relocating again as a UFA (or should he retire as a player, relocating to where he intends to start his next chapter of his life).

Plus he's from Vancouver so he's close to his friends and family growing up.

Still he has ten teams (I was incorrect with eight in the previous team) he must be willing to move to and players have all sorts of reasons to include or exclude a team from his list, so sure a team like Arizona could be on there but I'm not sure I would bank on it.

Keeping in mind that all the great reasons for Gaudreau to want to stay in Calgary instead of the idea he might want to leave to go home also should apply to Lucic not willing to want to leave too.

In any case, as a fan of Looch it sucks that it's almost assuredly Lucic or Gaudreau, unless Treliving gets really creative as it would suck to lose Lucic even with all his warts (which is pretty much his cap hit).

Also wasn't Doan's argument that his NTC meant his contract would be invalid if they moved as the contract stipulations were not met, and not stopping the team from actually leaving?

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

The offer has be a lot better after July 13th because he's cut out a year of earnings.
8 x 9.5 = 76M - he'd need to know he has an offer of 7 x 10.9M to beat the total value.

If the Flames can go to 10.25, then he'd have to get $11.7M x 7 to beat that.

If he goes to free agency day - then you have to assume he's gone.

How is this the same? One has an extra year of work attached to it, the other does not. Time is important too and he'd be able to still sign a new contract and play hockey for money in that 8th year.

If you make 60k a year and work a job for 5 years, would you be just as happy making 50k/year and working there 6 years?
I don't think so.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Ryan is right, the offer should have come sooner.

Ryan is naive.

By all reports the Flames and Gaudreau were negotiating last summer already, and then agreed to suspend talks once the season began. Given the circumstances—Gaudreau's most recent underwhelming performances, the team's dismal showing in the COVID-shortened season, and the total uncertainty about what the team and the League would look like coming back to full arenas—it would have been foolish for Gaudreau to sign any offer that the Flames were likely to make. And there is no way the Flames were going to hand him a blank cheque.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

How is this the same? One has an extra year of work attached to it, the other does not. Time is important too and he'd be able to still sign a new contract and play hockey for money in that 8th year.

If you make 60k a year and work a job for 5 years, would you be just as happy making 50k/year and working there 6 years?
I don't think so.

It is not the same thing, though. NHL contracts are guaranteed, so even if Gaudreau is somehow unable to play, he is still getting his money.

[Psytic]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

See, I don't share this view at all. Counting on NHL superstar players having loyalties to a club is probably a bit naive. There are just too many factors at play and money/term is not the biggest factor, because, they will get relatively same contract elsewhere. Pretty much all players I've spoken too in the past mostly value cities that they want to live in, cities that their wives like to live in, teams that have players they know and like to play with and coaches they don't have a negative experience with/view of. Being close to parents and/or friends is a factor too. Loyalty to an organization is much more important to 3rd-4th line players, who have expectations of being treated nicely by it when the time comes. Superstar players don't usually need this kind of reassurances/safety net.

Two months ago, I was 100% certain that Johnny was going to Philadelphia or Jersey (new house, young wife, parents, being a fan of Philly since birth, Guy being a coach there etc. - that is a lot of telltale pointers!). This conversation/opinion yesterday was a surprise to me. Happy to be wrong. But at the same time, this would be a massive $80M+/- contract for a player who has yet to prove he's worth it in the playoffs. If he leaves, that is a big cap room to work with for Treliving.

I dont think there's any situation where the Flames patch this up with FAs and come out ahead. Nobody is taking a discount to come here imo, they aren't desirable like the Avs, Leafs or Rags. Nobody is coming here with out the Flames outbidding other teams and thats not going to end well.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

How is this the same? One has an extra year of work attached to it, the other does not. Time is important too and he'd be able to still sign a new contract and play hockey for money in that 8th year.

If you make 60k a year and work a job for 5 years, would you be just as happy making 50k/year and working there 6 years?
I don't think so.

Hockey is a limited time career. So you've got to earn while you can. Its not remotely like the example you are giving where you can just go find another job making the same money. Gaudreau will be 36-37 when an 8 year contract expires. Odds are he's not getting another high paying contract when this ends.

For every Joe Pavelski, Jeff Carter guy making $6m in their mid/late 30s, there's 10 guys not getting signed or getting $1-2m contracts like Corey Perry, Jason Spezza, Zach Parise.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Landeskog and Stamkos signed before free agency to secure the 8 year deals. Stamkos was a free agent during the legal courting period so he was free to take meetings with teams.

One thing that I'm not sure has been overlooked is that Landeskog and the Avalanche also had the opposite of a deadline (lifeline? that doesn't make sense so deadcircle) where he was obviously going to be signed after July 21, 2021. He signed July 27, 2021.

Why July 21? That was the expansion draft. By being a UFA there was little reason for the Kraken to pick Landeskog except out of spite. Instead he was left unprotected so the Avalanche could protect an additional player like O'Connor.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I might be wrong, but my impression was always that Gaudreau rented in Calgary, and went home every summer. This year would look no different from any other year since he has been here regardless of whether he chooses to re-sign or not.

Was it not reported he bought a new house in Calgary this past off season? I am positive I read that somewhere.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Ryan is naive.

By all reports the Flames and Gaudreau were negotiating last summer already, and then agreed to suspend talks once the season began. Given the circumstances—Gaudreau's most recent underwhelming performances, the team's dismal showing in the COVID-shortened season, and the total uncertainty about what the team and the League would look like coming back to full arenas—it would have been foolish for Gaudreau to sign any offer that the Flames were likely to make. And there is no way the Flames were going to hand him a blank cheque.

I doubt that. Treliving didn’t want to give him enough for him to sign last year.
It’s not like Johnny didn’t want to negotiate.

It’s a gamble that Johnny won.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

It's just his opinion, based on his gut more than anything.

Yeah, and it’s the media business - one guy says he’s going, one guy says he’s staying… gets fans emotional. Can’t have everyone on the same side/opinion.

[Samonadreau]

I will officially be nervous come this weekend. I've been totally patient up until now but starting to sweat a bit.

[ComixZone]

I think that Ryan Leslie interview is as close to insider info as we're going to get on this situation as he seems to maintain pretty close relationships with a lot of the players.

I feel like if Gaudreau leaves, the Flames management team is open to criticism. They banked on winning last season, and it didn't happen. Pretty normal occurrence league-wide, but the risk was there all along and well known. By not signing Johnny long-term last summer they were at risk of losing him this summer.

I don't have a problem with them shooting their shot (not trading Gaudreau, trading lots of futures for Toffoli and Jarnkrok), but what happens next will really prove the quality of this organization. If Johnny leaves and they just run it back next year by adding a piece or two in free agency? That's a poorly managed team and an organization that isn't serious about winning a Stanley Cup.

Johnny not signing here would be the end of this era and slamming shut of any sort of "window" of competing...whether the team admits that or not is to be seen.