First and foremost...the devastation of the region and the people/families suffering within those areas is absolutely horrible to watch and think about.
On the science note...I find it really tiresome that scientific discussion on Twitter consistently turns into true-isms. Science by definition is speaking about a result in a very specific set of boundary conditions and continuing to prove or disprove those boundaries. Condensing this into a headline without boundary conditions is by definition a fools exercise and not science.
Now...for this particular case, to me this looks like the early works of science. The fellow has an observation and a hypothesis about a correlation / causation of two events. Is it ridiculous to imagine that our moon and sun have impacts on our tectonic plates, if they currently manage our ocean tides and path in the solar system? Likewise is it ridiculous to imagine that the dominant forces in the natural movement of tectonic plates far outweigh the impacts of external bodies? Sure on both...so what studies have been done to refute or support these rather than a popularity contest of I believe this or don't believe this...
According to that link, we are in zone 5 and we can expect 15cm of ash.
I don't think that's terribly catastrophic? It would be like a snow day, just black.
Volcanic ash weighs from double to up to 40 times what snow can weigh, depending on the ash and the snow. "New, unsettled snow" weighs between 50-70 kg/m^3 wheras "settled snow" can get as high as 300 kg/m^3. I doubt that Calgary frequently experiences snow of that weight or density and that what we're used to as a 'snow day' is almost entirely of the 'new-unsettled' kind.
The weight of volcanic ash depends on its water content, whether it's raining as it's falling or not. Dry ash is 500-700 kg/m^3, wheras saturated ash can reach 2000 kg/m^3
An average home footprint is maybe something like 10x12 meters?
10x12x0.15 = 18 m^3 of volcanic ash resting on a house. So, 9,000 kg at the low end, up to 36,000 kg on the high end.
Now that's on a house, which with a peaked roof is unlikely to accumulate the maximum possible. However, an apartment building, or commercial structures with their flat roofs and larger surface areas are going to see an enormous accumulation of weight they are almost certainly not designed to take.
15 centimeters of ash falling on Calgary would be a pretty bad day.
Of all the pics and videos I've seen about this tragedy so far the one that just absolutely wrecks me is the one with the father sitting in the rubble and holding his dead 15 year old daughter's hand who was killed in her bed. I can't imagine living with that kind of pain.
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Crazy stuff coming put of Turkey and Syria. I didn't know they were susceptible to big quakes like this. Devastating. City blocks have crumbled. Insane.
R.e the Cascadia Subduction event. The key word in that little Diddy is Liquefaction. I've been reading a lot on this over the last two years. And if this Twitter dude is calling for some Cascadia action on the back half of 2023. Well that settles it, time to punch that ferry ticket off this rock.
__________________ "Everybody's so desperate to look smart that nobody is having fun anymore" -Jackie Redmond
Crazy stuff coming put of Turkey and Syria. I didn't know they were susceptible to big quakes like this. Devastating. City blocks have crumbled. Insane.
R.e the Cascadia Subduction event. The key word in that little Diddy is Liquefaction. I've been reading a lot on this over the last two years. And if this Twitter dude is calling for some Cascadia action on the back half of 2023. Well that settles it, time to punch that ferry ticket off this rock.
This map will give you an idea where not to move if you can help it.
Volcanic ash weighs from double to up to 40 times what snow can weigh, depending on the ash and the snow. "New, unsettled snow" weighs between 50-70 kg/m^3 wheras "settled snow" can get as high as 300 kg/m^3. I doubt that Calgary frequently experiences snow of that weight or density and that what we're used to as a 'snow day' is almost entirely of the 'new-unsettled' kind.
The weight of volcanic ash depends on its water content, whether it's raining as it's falling or not. Dry ash is 500-700 kg/m^3, wheras saturated ash can reach 2000 kg/m^3
An average home footprint is maybe something like 10x12 meters?
10x12x0.15 = 18 m^3 of volcanic ash resting on a house. So, 9,000 kg at the low end, up to 36,000 kg on the high end.
Now that's on a house, which with a peaked roof is unlikely to accumulate the maximum possible. However, an apartment building, or commercial structures with their flat roofs and larger surface areas are going to see an enormous accumulation of weight they are almost certainly not designed to take.
15 centimeters of ash falling on Calgary would be a pretty bad day.
I'd like to steer the conversation back to the Turkey/Syria tragedy.
Would just like to say that a massive volcanic event like that would mean disruptions of food supply chains to such an extent that I think 15cm of ash is the least of our worries.
First and foremost...the devastation of the region and the people/families suffering within those areas is absolutely horrible to watch and think about.
On the science note...I find it really tiresome that scientific discussion on Twitter consistently turns into true-isms. Science by definition is speaking about a result in a very specific set of boundary conditions and continuing to prove or disprove those boundaries. Condensing this into a headline without boundary conditions is by definition a fools exercise and not science.
Now...for this particular case, to me this looks like the early works of science. The fellow has an observation and a hypothesis about a correlation / causation of two events. Is it ridiculous to imagine that our moon and sun have impacts on our tectonic plates, if they currently manage our ocean tides and path in the solar system? Likewise is it ridiculous to imagine that the dominant forces in the natural movement of tectonic plates far outweigh the impacts of external bodies? Sure on both...so what studies have been done to refute or support these rather than a popularity contest of I believe this or don't believe this...
#endrant...
Current consensus of tectonic movement: internal convection within the mantle possibly controlled along the D-layer (area bordering the mantle and outer core, however, much is not known) along with slab pull and ridge push of the plates (5%-15% ridge push). I’ve heard of a new study making the hypothesis of the sun and moon possibly having an influence— however, what I’ve been told within the university department, is that the results are spotty.
Last edited by TherapyforGlencross; 02-08-2023 at 11:11 AM.
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This is one of the most emotional videos I've ever seen. A Syrian father protected his young son at the cost of his own life
NSFW!
That's so devastating to watch.
I also just saw from Syria's Foreign Ministry that because of American sanctions, relief aid being sent to the Syrian tragedy from many countries is getting blocked.
That's so devastating to watch. I also just saw from Syria's Foreign Ministry that because of American sanctions, relief aid being sent to the Syrian tragedy from many countries is getting blocked.
I don't pretend to know all the nuance around the Syrian conflict, but that just seems wrong.
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Videoes emerges of Turkey President Erdogan bragging about scheme to let builders across Turkey to bypass Earthquake Safety standards and inspections in exchange for a "Zoning Amnesty" fee. aka. Bribe me and we'll just let you build whatever. This directly lead to the huge numbers of pancaking apartment buildings in the area, and the current 39K+ and counting death toll. Doing this and "spending" the $33B Earthquake fund (likely in part on his presidential palace complex), Erdogan is morally bankrupt. Guy can't lose the upcoming election soon enough.
Quote:
In one video, taken during a campaign stop ahead of Turkey's March 2019 local elections, Erdogan listed some of his government's top achievements — including new housing for the city of Kahramanmaras, also known as Maras, near the epicenter of last week's quake.
"We solved the problem of 144,156 citizens of Maras with zoning amnesty," Erdogan said, using his term for the construction amnesties handed out to allow contractors to ignore the safety codes that had been put on the books specifically to make apartment blocks, houses and office buildings more resistant to earthquakes.
Engineers and architects say the lack of safety features designed to absorb the shock of earthquakes likely contributed to the soaring death toll.
the country's main association of engineers and architects weighed in with a scathing attack on the practice of amnesties for builders, saying, "Zoning amnesty is an invitation to death."
The association added, "In our country, zoning amnesties have been one of the most important incentives for illegal construction and have made it uncertain for the society to live in healthy and safe houses." The group said the practice is used "for the sake of political gain," and must be stopped.
