Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[burn_this_city]

Why do people read RT? The Canadian dollar isn't going to drop to $0.40 US

[snootchiebootchies]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Why do people read RT? The Canadian dollar isn't going to drop to $0.40 US

RT predicted the Canadian dollar would drop to $1.60 against the US Dollar, which means $0.625 USD = $1.00 CAD. I don't think that's too hard to believe. I remember around 2001/2002, the Canadian dollar was indeed around that level.

[burn_this_city]

You're right I read that wrong, but I still don't really buy it unless Oil crashes again below $30.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Here is the thing about this article. Mortgages in arrears have increased, but the total of mortgages in arrears is 0.33%. For comparison, the peak for Alberta in the last 25 years is 0.84% in early 2011.

Also for comparison, the US total mortgages in arrears at the start of 2007 was 2%, 3.69% at the start of 2008, and peaked at 11.26% of all mortgages in 2010.

Over 10% of all mortgages in the entirety of the US was in arrears in 2010. Let that sink in for a second. We are at 0.33% in the middle of one of the longest recessions in Alberta's history.

We still have a long ways to go before we see anything significant...people don't understand just how big of a house of cards the US mortgage industry was built upon.

I read a bit about the US crash, after I read the Michael Lewis book. Crazy to think that people were getting mortgages and missing their first (!) payment.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by polak

What a splendid time I picked to grow up...

Be thankful you are 25 now and not in 1980 when interest rates got as high as 19%. And unemployment was over 10%.

Do the math on what a mortgage costs you with 19% interest rates.

[polak]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Be thankful you are 25 now and not in 1980 when interest rates got as high as 19%. And unemployment was over 10%.

Do the math on what a mortgage costs you with 19% interest rates.

No I know, its just... blah.... so much doom and gloom.

[cam_wmh]

Originally Posted by automaton 3

^Many Canadian mortgages are CMHC backed, so not sure what he means there.

CMHC has also has sold "bulk" insurance to lenders, so many mortgages not insured by the borrower may have been insured by the lender.

Conventional mortgages (at least 20% down) are non-recourse in Alberta.

Real estate is local. I have no doubt the lower mainland BC real estate market is headed for trouble.

Thanks for this post.

What does "Conventional mortgages (at least 20% down) are non-recourse in Alberta." the non-recourse portion of your comment mean?

I ask, as I put more than 20% down.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by polak

No I know, it just... blah.... so much doom and gloom.

I know, I get that. But honestly, it is always doom and gloom - every generation feels like they're starting out at the worst time.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by cam_wmh

Thanks for this post.

What does "Conventional mortgages (at least 20% down) are non-recourse in Alberta." the non-recourse portion of your comment mean?

I ask, as I put more than 20% down.

Non-recourse for housing means that if you give back your house to the bank, you're free and clear of the loan. This makes financial sense if real estate prices significantly fell and the amount owed is now higher than the market value of the house.

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I know, I get that. But honestly, it is always doom and gloom - every generation feels like they're starting out at the worst time.

Maybe I'm a minority here but I'm in my mid twenties, 4 years out of Uni and feel like there is nothing but opportunity here. The market is fully resetting in terms of our main economic driver (turnover of older employees, better functioning companies), the stock market tumbled last year and there were some great buys, and many indicators point to a decrease in home prices.

When I look at all the above, I would much rather be in my twenties than in my 60s (loss of job, loss of a good chunk of the equity in your house you had 2 - 3 years ago, loss of investments) in this climate.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Leondros

Maybe I'm a minority here but I'm in my mid twenties, 4 years out of Uni and feel like there is nothing but opportunity here. The market is fully resetting in terms of our main economic driver (turnover of older employees, better functioning companies), the stock market tumbled last year and there were some great buys, and many indicators point to a decrease in home prices.

When I look at all the above, I would much rather be in my twenties than in my 60s (loss of job, loss of a good chunk of the equity in your house you had 2 - 3 years ago, loss of investments) in this climate.

You may be in the minority, but you are looking at it in the right way.

[polak]

Originally Posted by Leondros

Maybe I'm a minority here but I'm in my mid twenties, 4 years out of Uni and feel like there is nothing but opportunity here. The market is fully resetting in terms of our main economic driver (turnover of older employees, better functioning companies), the stock market tumbled last year and there were some great buys, and many indicators point to a decrease in home prices.

When I look at all the above, I would much rather be in my twenties than in my 60s (loss of job, loss of a good chunk of the equity in your house you had 2 - 3 years ago, loss of investments) in this climate.

All depends on your position.

[PaperBagger'14]

Originally Posted by Leondros

Maybe I'm a minority here but I'm in my mid twenties, 4 years out of Uni and feel like there is nothing but opportunity here. The market is fully resetting in terms of our main economic driver (turnover of older employees, better functioning companies), the stock market tumbled last year and there were some great buys, and many indicators point to a decrease in home prices.

When I look at all the above, I would much rather be in my twenties than in my 60s (loss of job, loss of a good chunk of the equity in your house you had 2 - 3 years ago, loss of investments) in this climate.

This is a great attitude and I'm glad to hear it. I'm assuming you and I are on different paths (I had myself established career wise in my early 20s and went back to school, just finished) but we are in an ok position. I feel the biggest difference now for someone just completing school is finding work in their field. If you can manage that, and have an education that can put you on a strong path monetarily, we're in good shape. The jobs are out there, they don't pay what someone graduating 2 years ago would expect (I took a 25% hourly rate pay cut) but for me right now, it's short term pain for long term gain.

[polak]

3 years ago, when I just graduated I was an optimistic peach too.

[Fuzz]

You are well on your way to being the grumpiest old man, ever. Probably by 35.

[edslunch]

The only financial crisis you need to worry about is the one a few years before you retire

[SeeGeeWhy]

Originally Posted by polak

All depends on what you focus on.

Fixed your post.

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

You are well on your way to being the grumpiest old man, ever. Probably by 35.

Cliff Fletcher better watch his rear view mirror.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Here is the thing about this article. Mortgages in arrears have increased, but the total of mortgages in arrears is 0.33%. For comparison, the peak for Alberta in the last 25 years is 0.84% in early 2011.

Also for comparison, the US total mortgages in arrears at the start of 2007 was 2%, 3.69% at the start of 2008, and peaked at 11.26% of all mortgages in 2010.

Over 10% of all mortgages in the entirety of the US was in arrears in 2010. Let that sink in for a second. We are at 0.33% in the middle of one of the longest recessions in Alberta's history.

We still have a long ways to go before we see anything significant...people don't understand just how big of a house of cards the US mortgage industry was built upon.

This is a great post. I would add that when the absolute mortgage arrears number in AB gets to 3,000, is when the market really softens up and becomes a full blown buyer's market.

Currently at 2,000.

http://www.cba.ca/contents/files/sta...e_db050_en.pdf

[Pablothegreat]

Originally Posted by heep223

This is a great post. I would add that when the absolute mortgage arrears number in AB gets to 3,000, is when the market really softens up and becomes a full blown buyer's market.

Currently at 2,000.

http://www.cba.ca/contents/files/sta...e_db050_en.pdf

Thank you for this data. Just looking at the short term, in 2015, looks like mortgages in arrears hovered around 1,500-1,600. In 2016, they are jumping into the 1,800-1,900 in just a few months - touching the 2,000 in April. Wonder what the numbers are for May-Aug.