2018 NHL Draft

[TheIronMaiden]

30 days until the draft. It would be nice to grab a second round pick by then so that we could discuss something.

[sureLoss]

Don't forget the Flames are likely going to take at least one goalie this year.

Treliving has said in the past that he likes to draft one at least every two years and they didn't get one last year. McDonald has 1 year left on his ELC. Parsons and Schneider have 2 years left on their ELCs. Flames have no goalies outside of pro this upcoming season.

[sureLoss]

Conroy on 960 says it is probably 60/40 they acquire more picks for the draft.

[The Original FFIV]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Don't forget the Flames are likely going to take at least one goalie this year.

Treliving has said in the past that he likes to draft one at least every two years and they didn't get one last year. McDonald has 1 year left on his ELC. Parsons and Schneider have 2 years left on their ELCs. Flames have no goalies outside of pro this upcoming season.

Which I find ridiculous as we found a gem outside of the draft in Rittich. That and you had no room for G in our system which resulted in Parsons playing in KC for a good chunk of the year. Look at McDonald. Highly rated on draft year but unlikely to get a sniff. Evaluating G at 18 is such a crap shoot as they seem to have a longer development curve when compared to skaters. Allows teams to pick up decent prospects through free agency, whether it be Europe or NCAA

With so few picks you’d think we might want to focus on skaters. Goes against the best player available mantra that we should be following. Want players who have the best chance of playing in NHL regardless of position. This hard on for picking G so early in the draft on a regular basis is one point of contention I’ve had with Treliving’s approach

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by The Original FFIV

Which I find ridiculous as we found a gem outside of the draft in Rittich. That and you had no room for G in our system which resulted in Parsons playing in KC for a good chunk of the year. Look at McDonald. Highly rated on draft year but unlikely to get a sniff. Evaluating G at 18 is such a crap shoot as they seem to have a longer development curve when compared to skaters. Allows teams to pick up decent prospects through free agency, whether it be Europe or NCAA

But how many good prospects do you imagine a team will be able to acquire via this route? Historically speaking, the best goalies are still selected through the NHL draft more than 80% of the time.

With so few picks you’d think we might want to focus on skaters. Goes against the best player available mantra that we should be following. Want players who have the best chance of playing in NHL regardless of position. This hard on for picking G so early in the draft on a regular basis is one point of contention I’ve had with Treliving’s approach

What is "early"? Treliving has drafted a total of two goaltenders in four entry drafts, and with 25 picks at his disposal—that is fewer than one out of every twelve players. McDonald was selected #34, and Parsons was picked #54. It sure doesn't seem to me like Treliving is inappropriately prioritizing goaltenders at the draft, and his selects appear to be within range of where the other top goalies were picked both times.

[FlamesFanTrev]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

But how many good prospects do you imagine a team will be able to acquire via this route? Historically speaking, the best goalies are still selected through the NHL draft more than 80% of the time.


What is "early"? Treliving has drafted a total of two goaltenders in four entry drafts, and with 25 picks at his disposal—that is fewer than one out of every twelve players. McDonald was selected #34, and Parsons was picked #54. It sure doesn't seem to me like Treliving is inappropriately prioritizing goaltenders at the draft, and his selects appear to be within range of where the other top goalies were picked both times.

Not to mention that one of the biggest beefs that people have against Treliving is the revolving goalie carousel over the last 4 years. We have given up more picks trading for goalies for a season or two then we have used actually DRAFTING goalies! I think seeding a new goalie into the system every 2 years with your 2nd round pick seems like SUPERB asset management and development, rather then this never ending cycle of trading and hoping. Have to start somewhere. Lucky for us, we started filling in the depth and development for that position almost a half decade ago. The only way to stop the carousel is to have one of these guys step up and take the starter role, and be under team control for 7 years.

[Royle9]

Originally Posted by FlamesFanTrev

Not to mention that one of the biggest beefs that people have against Treliving is the revolving goalie carousel over the last 4 years. We have given up more picks trading for goalies for a season or two then we have used actually DRAFTING goalies! I think seeding a new goalie into the system every 2 years with your 2nd round pick seems like SUPERB asset management and development, rather then this never ending cycle of trading and hoping. Have to start somewhere. Lucky for us, we started filling in the depth and development for that position almost a half decade ago. The only way to stop the carousel is to have one of these guys step up and take the starter role, and be under team control for 7 years.

Sadly I think as an Organization our Goalie development has been atrocious.
It's clearly the hardest position to draft, its very hard to evaluate just how good a kids going to be in the NHL based on junior stats alone. Only a few first round goalies have turned into a success at all, Price/Fluery were both basically elite coming out of Junior and then Vasilevskiy but he came in the 19th pick which was a great.
Just think how many WJHC goalies we've seen go high in the draft only to never make it past the AHL.

I personally believe that you cant look at any goalie prospect unless his save % is above .910 minimum consistently. Anything lower and I feel their chance is almost obsolete.

Flames historic Goalie draft picks since 2000:

Krahn - Bust - 9th OA
Lalande - Bust
Keetley - Bust
Irving - Bust - 26th OA
Ortio - Bust
Brossoit - Pretty much a bust
Gillies - Not looking good
McDonald - 34th OA - Borderline Bust at this point
Parsons - ECHL/AHL numbers aren't strong at all

[FlamesFanTrev]

Originally Posted by Royle9

Sadly I think as an Organization our Goalie development has been atrocious.
It's clearly the hardest position to draft, its very hard to evaluate just how good a kids going to be in the NHL based on junior stats alone. Only a few first round goalies have turned into a success at all, Price/Fluery were both basically elite coming out of Junior and then Vasilevskiy but he came in the 19th round which was a great pick.

Just think how many WJHC Gold Medal goalies we've seen go high in the draft only to never make it past the AHL.

I personally believe that you cant look at any goalie prospect unless his save % is above .910 minimum consistently. Anything lower and I feel their chance is almost obsolete.

Flames historic Goalie draft picks since 2000:

Krahn - Bust - 9th OA
Lalande - Bust
Keetley - Bust
Irving - Bust - 26th OA
Ortio - Bust
Brossoit - Pretty much a bust
Gillies - Not looking good
McDonald - 34th OA - Borderline Bust at this point
Parsons - ECHL/AHL numbers aren't strong at all

Yup it's super hard. So hard infact that nobody is going to trade you the goalie that they drafted that successfully became an NHL starter. You can get the 33- 34 year old that draft pick replaces though. All you would have to do is trade off a draft pick or two. Wait... Why is this so familiar?

Just because it's hard, dosent mean you shouldn't try. With less then 15% of the skaters chosen in the 2nd round making the show for more then a cup of java, what is the real risk, every second year, trying to fill the most important position on your hockey team through draft and development? Wouldn't it be nice to drop a Jonas Hiller on someone else for a change?

[Royle9]

Originally Posted by FlamesFanTrev

Yup it's super hard. So hard infact that nobody is going to trade you the goalie that they drafted that successfully became an NHL starter. You can get the 33- 34 year old that draft pick replaces though. All you would have to do is trade off a draft pick or two. Wait... Why is this so familiar?

Just because it's hard, dosent mean you shouldn't try. With less then 15% of the skaters chosen in the 2nd round making the show for more then a cup of java, what is the real risk, every second year, trying to fill the most important position on your hockey team through draft and development? Wouldn't it be nice to drop a Jonas Hiller on someone else for a change?

Lol, I'm not disagreeing with you at all!
I'm just saying it sucks our development of goalies has been either a terrible string of luck or a significant hole in our organizational goalie philosophy/developmental coaching.

Damned if you do, damned if you dont if you're the Calgary Flames.
Mind you we were in the running for Fleury and squandered that onto Smith instead.

I'm just saying if we do draft one (4th-7th) round the chances they amount to anything are already inherently slim but you couple that with our history with goalies going back to the year 1990's and our batting average is in the negatives.
What we COULD explore is going after a team's "up and coming" goalie that may turn into a starter in the near future. Washington for Example has Holtby and Grubauer as their 1-2 but they also have Samsonov whos in the KHL but has really good numbers and is clearly ready for the NHL. They'll have a logjam eventually, these are the scenarios we should explore as well imo.

A quick look at the "top 10" goalies in this years draft:

1. Jakub Skarek (Jihavla, Czech Extraliga | 6’3, 196)
.946
.912
.912

2. Olivier Rodrigue (Drummondville, QMJHL | 6’1, 159)
.878
.903
.891

3. Kevin Mandolese (Cape Breton, QMJHL | 6’4, 180)
.890
.884
.875

4. Jacob Ingham (Mississauga, OHL | 6’4, 186)
.917
.907
.880

5. Amir Miftakhov (Irbis Kazan, MHL | 6’0, 158)
Not found on HockeyDB

6. Justus Annunen (Karpat U20, Jr. A SM-Liiga | 6’4, 217)
No stats on HockeyDB

7. Alexis Gravel (Halifax, QMJHL | 6’3, 219):
.894
.890
.917

8. Lukas Dostal (Kometa Brno, Czech Extraliga | 6’1, 158)
No Stats on HockeyDB

9. Jett Alexander (North York, OJHL | 6’4, 187)
.870
.942
.904
.929

10. Olof Lindbom (Djugarden, SHL | 6’0, 173)
No Stats on HockeyDB


Not looking to good stat wise (given the .910 minimum), and since we don't draft until the 4th round I dont think Skarek will be available even though some sites suggest he's destined for the 3rd round or later. I believe he's still rated the #1 Euro Goalie prospect 2018.

[The Original FFIV]

Originally Posted by Royle9

Sadly I think as an Organization our Goalie development has been atrocious.
It's clearly the hardest position to draft, its very hard to evaluate just how good a kids going to be in the NHL based on junior stats alone. Only a few first round goalies have turned into a success at all, Price/Fluery were both basically elite coming out of Junior and then Vasilevskiy but he came in the 19th round which was a great pick.

Just think how many WJHC Gold Medal goalies we've seen go high in the draft only to never make it past the AHL.

I personally believe that you cant look at any goalie prospect unless his save % is above .910 minimum consistently. Anything lower and I feel their chance is almost obsolete.

Flames historic Goalie draft picks since 2000:

Krahn - Bust - 9th OA
Lalande - Bust
Keetley - Bust
Irving - Bust - 26th OA
Ortio - Bust
Brossoit - Pretty much a bust
Gillies - Not looking good
McDonald - 34th OA - Borderline Bust at this point
Parsons - ECHL/AHL numbers aren't strong at all

Thank you - can't forget Andrei Medvedev either can we?

Maybe the problem is with our development as well. You have summed up nicely our attempts at bringing in NHL level talent which obviously sucks as barring Gillies down, we have done terrible with drafting goalies.

Part of that lies on the scouts as I do not know why you pass on Thatcher Demko for Mason McDonald - that one was a head scratcher at the time and why a project goalie (which was his ranking at the time) warrants a high second (albeit in a weak draft) is beyond me. I recall there were concerns over Demko's hips which tilted the pick towards McDonald but history has proven we passed on the better goalie. Maybe the remnants of being the smartest guys in the room which appeared to be the philosophy under Feaster still lingered in 2014.

Whether it's hiring a better scout who has better reads on goalies or having a better goalie coach who can work with the talent and develop it better, something needs to change. But to just keep taking wild swings at goalie prospects screams of throwing spaghetti against the wall and hoping some of it sticks.

[Royle9]

Originally Posted by The Original FFIV

Thank you - can't forget Andrei Medvedev either can we?

Maybe the problem is with our development as well. You have summed up nicely our attempts at bringing in NHL level talent which obviously sucks as barring Gillies down, we have done terrible with drafting goalies.

Part of that lies on the scouts as I do not know why you pass on Thatcher Demko for Mason McDonald - that one was a head scratcher at the time and why a project goalie (which was his ranking at the time) warrants a high second (albeit in a weak draft) is beyond me. I recall there were concerns over Demko's hips which tilted the pick towards McDonald but history has proven we passed on the better goalie. Maybe the remnants of being the smartest guys in the room which appeared to be the philosophy under Feaster still lingered in 2014.

Whether it's hiring a better scout who has better reads on goalies or having a better goalie coach who can work with the talent and develop it better, something needs to change. But to just keep taking wild swings at goalie prospects screams of throwing spaghetti against the wall and hoping some of it sticks.

The McDonald pick was a huge head scratcher and I think its safe to say continues to be as Demko's numbers in the AHL are extremely good. But McDonald had a fantastic U18 run that skyrocketed his draft stock, coupled with some scouts unsure as to Demko's "health" regarding his hip's as you alluded to.

I do think its both scouting and development at this point myself, there's just no way we've been unlucky consistently for for 20+ years now, it just doesn't make sense.

[Textcritic]

This post is all over the map...

Originally Posted by Royle9

Sadly I think as an Organization our Goalie development has been atrocious.
It's clearly the hardest position to draft, its very hard to evaluate just how good a kids going to be in the NHL based on junior stats alone. Only a few first round goalies have turned into a success at all, Price/Fluery were both basically elite coming out of Junior and then Vasilevskiy but he came in the 19th round which was a great pick.

Vasilevsky was a #19 pick—NOT selected in the 19th round(?!). I don't think it should come as any surprise that very few goalies are ever drafted in the first round any more. There have been only eight goalies selected in the first round in the past decade, and only two since 2012 when TB selected Vasilevsky, and Boston picked Subban. The Flames have not drafted a goalie in the first round since 2006.

Just think how many WJHC Gold Medal goalies we've seen go high in the draft only to never make it past the AHL.

There have actually been very few highly drafted goalies to win a WHJC. In the past 20 years there have been only two first-round gold-medal winners—Al Montoya in 2004, and Jack Campbell in 2010.

personally believe that you cant look at any goalie prospect unless his save % is above .910 minimum consistently. Anything lower and I feel their chance is almost obsolete.

"Obsolete"?
Matt Murray entered the 2012 NHL entry draft with a 0.894 SP in the QMJHL. Holtby entered the 2008 draft with a 0.908 SP, and Jake Allen had a 0.905 SP. Like you said: it is very difficult to evaluate how 18-year-old GK prospects will turn out.

Flames historic Goalie draft picks since 2000:

Krahn - Bust - 9th OA
Lalande - Bust
Keetley - Bust
Irving - Bust - 26th OA
Ortio - Bust
Brossoit - Pretty much a bust
Gillies - Not looking good
McDonald - 34th OA - Borderline Bust at this point
Parsons - ECHL/AHL numbers aren't strong at all

You say of Gillies that he is "not looking good," and yet he has pretty solid early numbers for a NHL goalie at the entry of his big-league career, and at only 24-years-old. In his first twelve NHL starts, Vezina nominee Connor Hellebyuck had a 4-7 record and a 0.856 SP. Gillies has a 4-5 record in 10 starts and 12 GP, and a 0.903 SP. He looks fine to me.

Tyler Parsons is a 20-year-old first-year professional. What do you expect?

[Bingo]

Once again I'd caution on looking back 18 years in developing goaltenders, as I've said for drafting and other topics.

Too many changes to management to have that hold together.

I see Treliving's reign as a 2014 draft where he wasn't fully in charge, and then a 15-17 run that has shown a lot of change and forethought in where they are going.

To me the 2015 draft was amazing because he had a team with high end young forwards, but a gap in defenders, and turned it into Hamilton and two promising Swedish defensemen.

Parsons should have gone sooner in 2016 so that was a great pick.

The draft isn't worrying me at all these days, though of course I wish they had their higher picks (no reopening Hamonic deal)

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by The Original FFIV

...Part of that lies on the scouts as I do not know why you pass on Thatcher Demko for Mason McDonald - that one was a head scratcher at the time and why a project goalie (which was his ranking at the time) warrants a high second (albeit in a weak draft) is beyond me...

McDonald was not a "project goalie" in the 2014 entry draft. He was the #2 ranked North American goalie by NHLCS.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

McDonald was not a "project goalie" in the 2014 entry draft. He was the #2 ranked North American goalie by NHLCS.

This is true, although they picked him before the #1 guy and the #1 guy does look like he might have an NHL career ahead of him. So it's still a mistake.

[The Original FFIV]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

McDonald was not a "project goalie" in the 2014 entry draft. He was the #2 ranked North American goalie by NHLCS.

I'm starting to think you don't like my posts given the gratuitous use of "quotations"

I keep all my hockey news draft previews (sorry, I believe you have more connections to the game than I do but I have to go by the layman's info) and that's his projection - project goalie.

Have to check but believe Demko was projected as a starting goalie.

[The Original FFIV]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Once again I'd caution on looking back 18 years in developing goaltenders, as I've said for drafting and other topics.

Too many changes to management to have that hold together.

I see Treliving's reign as a 2014 draft where he wasn't fully in charge, and then a 15-17 run that has shown a lot of change and forethought in where they are going.

To me the 2015 draft was amazing because he had a team with high end young forwards, but a gap in defenders, and turned it into Hamilton and two promising Swedish defensemen.

Parsons should have gone sooner in 2016 so that was a great pick.

The draft isn't worrying me at all these days, though of course I wish they had their higher picks (no reopening Hamonic deal)

agree that drafting has gotten better since BT was fully in charge and 2014 was a below average draft.

curious on the bolded part as I'm sure he would been able to make the same deal that NYR did with NYI when NYI moved up to pick Ho Sang. Not saying we should have picked Ho Sang but moving up from the 2nd into the 1st would have probably gotten us someone higher on the list than McDonald. And given the weak draft 2014 was, any opportunity to move up and get a higher quality prospect should have been known by all in the organization (including BT even though he just got there). Would have avoided all the consternation/hair splitting over the McDonald/Hunter Smith picks.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Royle9

Sadly I think as an Organization our Goalie development has been atrocious.
It's clearly the hardest position to draft, its very hard to evaluate just how good a kids going to be in the NHL based on junior stats alone. Only a few first round goalies have turned into a success at all, Price/Fluery were both basically elite coming out of Junior and then Vasilevskiy but he came in the 19th pick which was a great.
Just think how many WJHC goalies we've seen go high in the draft only to never make it past the AHL.

I personally believe that you cant look at any goalie prospect unless his save % is above .910 minimum consistently. Anything lower and I feel their chance is almost obsolete.

Flames historic Goalie draft picks since 2000:

Krahn - Bust - 9th OA
Lalande - Bust
Keetley - Bust
Irving - Bust - 26th OA
Ortio - Bust
Brossoit - Pretty much a bust
Gillies - Not looking good
McDonald - 34th OA - Borderline Bust at this point
Parsons - ECHL/AHL numbers aren't strong at all

Why do you think this? Gillies looked pretty damn good last season behind an awful team.

In 9 starts in 17/18, Jon Gillies did this:

Apr 7: .963
Apr 5: .923
Apr 3: .810
Mar 29: .821
Mar 5: .875
Mar 2: .889
Feb 27: .923
Feb 24: .966
Feb 22: .946

Shots against: 253
Goals against: 24
Save %: .905

.905 for a rookie playing behind a bad team is not bad, especially when you look into the games and see the quality of chances given up during the stretch towards the end of the season/after Smith's injury.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by The Original FFIV

I'm starting to think you don't like my posts given the gratuitous use of "quotations"

I keep all my hockey news draft previews (sorry, I believe you have more connections to the game than I do but I have to go by the layman's info) and that's his projection - project goalie.

Have to check but believe Demko was projected as a starting goalie.

So, he was a project pick according to THN? They are hardly the consensus authority on the NHL Entry Draft—just ask the Edmonton Oilers.

And for the record, yes, I recognize that selecting McDonald ahead of Demko was a mistake in hindsight. My point is that it was not a reach at the time of the draft.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

McDonald was not a "project goalie" in the 2014 entry draft. He was the #2 ranked North American goalie by NHLCS.

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

This is true, although they picked him before the #1 guy and the #1 guy does look like he might have an NHL career ahead of him. So it's still a mistake.

I am pretty sure that central scouting had MacDonald #1, not #2