Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[kermitology]

Originally Posted by Torture

I disagree. Obviously it depends on the workplace but I have seen lots of employees told "you can't work from home" because their manager simply doesn't trust or believe that work can be done efficiently from home.

At a lot of companies those managers have been proven wrong. That doesn't mean that those managers won't still be old fashioned, but employees probably won't buy the argument that they can't get their work done from home because they've already demonstrated they could!

But that said, yes, people will still have to go to offices for certain tasks or days and it's not going to be 100% work from home.

My company went to purely work from home the Friday before Alberta schools closed. In the past 180 days we turned a truly ridiculous amount of sales. Our physical stores were closed, but shipping product still. It replaced 100% of retail sales for Canadian Tire and about 75% of total sales for other banners. Believe me, we all expect working from home to be much more accepted.

Works out for me because I was going to start working remote anyway. This just accelerated that move and made it more palatable to management.

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by Thunderball

I don't necessarily agree, but I think the position is that the Federal Government has turned pipelines into more of a public good rather than a private enterprise. As such, no pipeline has a chance without a government behind it, and unfortunately, that means Alberta is going to bankroll and where necessary, use provincial powers to fight back (or deflect attention). Whether they can do it competently is another matter.

By Biden making this clearly political, he's inviting a claim through the WTO because its clearly political and discriminatory.

Yeah that's a good point too, I remember reading that TC was getting set to sue the US over Keystone under NAFTA until Trump revived it. The back up plan I'm sure involves threats of litigation and various legal sundries so it makes sense not to articulate it now. Kenney and Savage seem to be pounding the "look how clearly beneficial this is to both countries" drum which is fine for now but it's weak sauce long term and clearly, clearly the Democrats won't listen to reason on this one. Hopefully our benevolent Federal government could also add pressure to a possible Biden administration.

In chapter 1,265,879 of what's made this decade long fight so frustrating, freaking Obama used the completion of Keystone phase 4 from the US oil hub of Cushing Oklahoma to the port of Nederland as a photo op. He did this around the same time as nixing Keystone XL as part of "climate responsibility". There was nothing about pipe running through Oklahoma and Texas that differentiated it from one through Montana South Dakota and Nebraska except the source of the oil and a dedicated campaign exerting influence. As mentioned on the previous page about the Norweigan fund, Canada's oil has become a convenient singled out punching bag. It's what happens when you act like a bunch of pansies and refuse to fight for your fair right to produce oil at high standards.

[CaptainCrunch]

The most frustrating part was Obama getting the study about the Keystone pipeline, and completely ignoring it, and fabricating his own conclusions that didn't actually match the report that his own government produced. While he built massive amounts of Pipelines elsewhere.



Obama wasn't a real good friend to Canada when it came to Oil and Gas and trade, Biden looks to be the same way. Trump has been pretty bad and has a fractured relationship with our government. We need to realize that the US isn't really a good friend to us on a governmental level, and that's why its important to get our own product to our own tidewater, period.



I would assume that if Biden just arbitrarily rips up those Keystone agreements that the lawsuits filed against the US government are going to be epic.

[Suave]

Originally Posted by Mayo

I don’t think it matters much even if we get Keystone in. With no hope for additional pipelines thereafter, there’s no growth potential in Canada, and there will be no further investment.

Calgary is going to go the way of Detroit unless we can get some competency in our federal leadership and secure future market access.

Or wait did I forget about the thousands that are going to flock from sunny California and Denver to work in our thriving tech and films industries

How is there no hope? With Keystone XL, Trans Mountain plus optimization on existing lines, Alberta will have over 5.5 million barrels a day export capacity. So we can grow existing production over 40% before nearing capacity again. That doesn't take into account rail capacity, plus having to replace declines.

I think going forward oil price will be more the limiting factor in growth rather than export capacity.

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by Suave

How is there no hope? With Keystone XL, Trans Mountain plus optimization on existing lines, Alberta will have over 5.5 million barrels a day export capacity. So we can grow existing production over 40% before nearing capacity again. That doesn't take into account rail capacity, plus having to replace declines.

I think going forward oil price will be more the limiting factor in growth rather than export capacity.

Agree with this, the egress capacity IF we're lucky enough to get these done will be more than enough to support a robust conventional drilling return and one or two more mines. Perhaps most importantly it would be a signal to foreign capital that you're safe to return to this jurisdiction which has been the major drag on our Province these last few years. After that you're right, oil price becomes the most important but even if WTI stays at $50-60, with minimal differential that's more than enough to be profitable for all but the most poorly managed companies.

Another thing to keep in mind is that Natural Gas is a sleeping giant for us right now. Again, IF we're able to get that goddamn LNG terminal built, combined with more American gas leaving the continent, combined with the end of by-product gas from the US shale oil boom, gas has potential to become more important than oil for us. This was before my time but listening to people in the industry talk about the 90's and early 00's gas was king and paid the bills in the province before oil sands boom. We have so much potential here in both oil and gas, it's easy to get defeatist and I've been guilty of that myself, but we need to push through and keep fighting. If we wilt and allow O&G to wither there's nothing coming to replace it, the software companies in town employing 15 people are not going to pay the bills.

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

Then that would be bad and dumb of him.

Not sure why you’re celebrating this, presuming you’re an Albertan Obama’s decision in 2015 has made our province ostensibly worse off, and Biden’s quashing would prolong that pain for decades.

I hate Trump and Kenney and anything they do is stoopid.

This is thought pattern of the group that bought tickets to see Obama speak in Calgary. Just to hear someone validate them with a pat on the head and “thats a good boy” speech. All the while being the same man hard screwing the very country, province and city they are sitting in.

Classic Canadian culture. So insecure and obsessed with what others think we will gladly cut off any body part to get a wink and nod from anyone.

[Suave]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

Agree with this, the egress capacity IF we're lucky enough to get these done will be more than enough to support a robust conventional drilling return and one or two more mines. Perhaps most importantly it would be a signal to foreign capital that you're safe to return to this jurisdiction which has been the major drag on our Province these last few years. After that you're right, oil price becomes the most important but even if WTI stays at $50-60, with minimal differential that's more than enough to be profitable for all but the most poorly managed companies.

Another thing to keep in mind is that Natural Gas is a sleeping giant for us right now. Again, IF we're able to get that goddamn LNG terminal built, combined with more American gas leaving the continent, combined with the end of by-product gas from the US shale oil boom, gas has potential to become more important than oil for us. This was before my time but listening to people in the industry talk about the 90's and early 00's gas was king and paid the bills in the province before oil sands boom. We have so much potential here in both oil and gas, it's easy to get defeatist and I've been guilty of that myself, but we need to push through and keep fighting. If we wilt and allow O&G to wither there's nothing coming to replace it, the software companies in town employing 15 people are not going to pay the bills.

Yes, if we want province wide boom times back then gas pricing would be key. More drilling and completions rigs, pipelines and facilities work required with gas, plus its spread around the province and not mainly concentrated in Fort Mac.

Main problem again is pricing, there is too much gas accessible at a low price point. Just think of all the gas being flared in places like Texas that will become economic to tie-in as the price rises. I think LNG pricing long term is on a downward trend. Right now it isn't that there's not enough gas to meet demand just that the supply is in the wrong places. So as more LNG export terminals around the world are built, top end pricing is going to be reduced. Then you are just hoping for really cold or really hot weather to stimulate demand and take advantage of price spikes.

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by Suave

Yes, if we want province wide boom times back then gas pricing would be key. More drilling and completions rigs, pipelines and facilities work required with gas, plus its spread around the province and not mainly concentrated in Fort Mac.

Main problem again is pricing, there is too much gas accessible at a low price point. Just think of all the gas being flared in places like Texas that will become economic to tie-in as the price rises. I think LNG pricing long term is on a downward trend. Right now it isn't that there's not enough gas to meet demand just that the supply is in the wrong places. So as more LNG export terminals around the world are built, top end pricing is going to be reduced. Then you are just hoping for really cold or really hot weather to stimulate demand and take advantage of price spikes.

Agree on the benefits of gas being more widespread and it's a major plus, it would give relief to hard hit places like GP FSJ Drayton Valley.

LNG pricing is definitely challenged right now, and could be for a while although I do think long term natural gas market share will increase and consequently prices will rise later on. I'm no expert on the gas market, but I think broadly with the advent of sea-borne LNG we're witnessing the transformation from what was a very fractured market to a more fluid global market like oil is now. The countries that were smart enough to seize LNG early (Australia, Qatar, USA, definitely not Canada) were able to get $12/mcf in Asia. As more LNG came on I think that's dropped to like $8 now. As the world gas prices get more fluid and there's less of a differential from $8 tidewater gas to $1.50 land gas that our producers get I'd imagine those prices will meet in the middle for everyone. Even if that works out to $4 and stays there for a while that's still a massive improvement on what companies are getting now. It's not the boom that early LNG would have been but it's still a drastic improvement from what we have now because it's honestly hard to get much worse. The Montney is already somewhat economic at current prices, an improvement brings a new drilling boom and US shale like activity.

[Lubicon]

I'm not sure there is a precedent for this in the past, I do not recall it happening before. AER is blocking an asset sale due to concern about cleaning up the facilities at end of life. The topic is timely giving the recent orphan well discussion that has been ongoing on CP. I had assumed this deal had already gone through, one of my coworkers had a brother who worked at one of the plants but left after Pieridae took over and he wasn't thrilled with the new wawcons. And that was last year IIRC.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6946368/a...ae-energy-may/

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

I hate Trump and Kenney and anything they do is stoopid.

This is thought pattern of the group that bought tickets to see Obama speak in Calgary. Just to hear someone validate them with a pat on the head and “thats a good boy” speech. All the while being the same man hard screwing the very country, province and city they are sitting in.

Classic Canadian culture. So insecure and obsessed with what others think we will gladly cut off any body part to get a wink and nod from anyone.

I "liked" Obama when he was elected in the sense that I was 17 and thought he was cool and a breath of fresh air. The guy did March Madness brackets and had a basketball hoop installed in the White House. That was more or less why I liked him, I'm not a citizen of the US and don't care about their politics so it was nothing policy wise for or against him in my opinion. When he was re-elected in 2012 I was in Vegas for an Oil and Gas related conference through the U of C and was pretty pumped, me and couple buddies crashed the Nevada Democrats election party at the Mandalay Bay and celebrated hard. There were a bunch of Texas oil guys at this conference and when we talked about celebrating the previous night they told us that if we cared about oil and gas in Canada then we should've been mourning and not celebrating. Turns out they were right, if Obama hadn't capped us for naked pandering reasons Keystone would be in the ground right now flowing 800k bbl/d to tidewater and everyone in Alberta from oil and gas workers to public sector unions would be much much better off than we are right now.

Obviously I'm biased but I think that through approving Keystone and pushing it forward Trump did more for Canada than Obama did his whole presidency. If someone could articulate how that's not the case I'd be glad to listen. Sure Obama and Trudeau had a bro-mance but that's just all talk and photo ops, when it comes down to hard economics and actions Trump came through for us and Obama kicked us in the nuts. Sounds like his right hand man is getting set to do the same. Trump is crass, unhinged, and deeply unpopular with Canadians for understandable reasons. It doesn't change the fact that he's helping us.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Lubicon

I'm not sure there is a precedent for this in the past, I do not recall it happening before. AER is blocking an asset sale due to concern about cleaning up the facilities at end of life. The topic is timely giving the recent orphan well discussion that has been ongoing on CP. I had assumed this deal had already gone through, one of my coworkers had a brother who worked at one of the plants but left after Pieridae took over and he wasn't thrilled with the new wawcons. And that was last year IIRC.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6946368/a...ae-energy-may/

Right decision IMO. Going to put shell in an awkward position though.

Basically Shell was offering to cover clean up of historical contamination but anything new (including abandoning wells) was on Pieridae IIRC. Pieridae has a pretty questionable business plan so I think CNRL/OWA were raising hell. over this.

[AFireInside]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

I hate Trump and Kenney and anything they do is stoopid.

This is thought pattern of the group that bought tickets to see Obama speak in Calgary. Just to hear someone validate them with a pat on the head and “thats a good boy” speech. All the while being the same man hard screwing the very country, province and city they are sitting in.

Classic Canadian culture. So insecure and obsessed with what others think we will gladly cut off any body part to get a wink and nod from anyone.

Right, kind of like how everyone in this province complains about the things the federal government does but when Kenney does the exact same thing or worse, it's no problem as long as he's giving money to O & G.

Come on man.

[Red]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

I "liked" Obama when he was elected in the sense that I was 17 and thought he was cool and a breath of fresh air. The guy did March Madness brackets and had a basketball hoop installed in the White House. That was more or less why I liked him, I'm not a citizen of the US and don't care about their politics so it was nothing policy wise for or against him in my opinion. When he was re-elected in 2012 I was in Vegas for an Oil and Gas related conference through the U of C and was pretty pumped, me and couple buddies crashed the Nevada Democrats election party at the Mandalay Bay and celebrated hard. There were a bunch of Texas oil guys at this conference and when we talked about celebrating the previous night they told us that if we cared about oil and gas in Canada then we should've been mourning and not celebrating. Turns out they were right, if Obama hadn't capped us for naked pandering reasons Keystone would be in the ground right now flowing 800k bbl/d to tidewater and everyone in Alberta from oil and gas workers to public sector unions would be much much better off than we are right now.

Obviously I'm biased but I think that through approving Keystone and pushing it forward Trump did more for Canada than Obama did his whole presidency. If someone could articulate how that's not the case I'd be glad to listen. Sure Obama and Trudeau had a bro-mance but that's just all talk and photo ops, when it comes down to hard economics and actions Trump came through for us and Obama kicked us in the nuts. Sounds like his right hand man is getting set to do the same. Trump is crass, unhinged, and deeply unpopular with Canadians for understandable reasons. It doesn't change the fact that he's helping us.

He did more for the Canada's O&G sector. There is a lot more to Canada than O&G and a lot are hurting because of Trump. O&G contributes to about 6% of Canada's GDP.

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by Red

He did more for the Canada's O&G sector. There is a lot more to Canada than O&G and a lot are hurting because of Trump. O&G contributes to about 6% of Canada's GDP.

Used to be a lot higher before the political games started. A bit misleading to use the current day number.

[Izzle]

A statement from Sonya Savage.

https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/mobile/al...oach-1.4944214

What's the benefit of using the business-as-usual approach? Is there a huge demand for Canadian crude now that USA is self-sufficient? Would it have been better to try something new instead on the business-as-usual approach?

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

[Red]

Originally Posted by Regorium

Used to be a lot higher before the political games started. A bit misleading to use the current day number.

Maybe I am looking at wrong numbers, but it has been between 5% and 7% at its peak in the last 10 years.

[Bill Bumface]

If the USA was looking to get a pipe through Canada to supply oil to a Canadian refinery, would you be for it or against it?

I'd be against it. I'd rather Canadian industry fill our refineries. I assume the US desire for Keystone must be to secure heavy oil and it's a Canada vs. Venezuela question, because otherwise I have no idea why anyone there would support it.

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by Red

He did more for the Canada's O&G sector. There is a lot more to Canada than O&G and a lot are hurting because of Trump. O&G contributes to about 6% of Canada's GDP.

That's totally fair, like I said I'm pretty oil and gas focused so I don't know how new tariffs have effected say, the aluminum or steel or auto industry. Maybe they've been devastated, but right now it doesn't seem to the same degree that O&G was devastated by Obama's decision to kill keystone. What's his legacy to Canadians? Besides being friends with Trudeau and everyone liking him because he's likable and fitting in more with the beige nice-guy Canadian persona than Trump. That's all well and good but it's superficial crap, when it comes to actual boosts to our bottom line Trump helped us more by trying to undo a disastrous decision that has made our province, and by extension all of us, poorer for no reason.

Warren Kinsella on twitter is an interesting follow because he's a Liberal who now lives in Toronto but was originally from Alberta, is a fan of Obama and now Biden, and hates both Trump and Trudeau. Big mixed bag. He had recently become a big booster of Alberta getting export capacity because he recognizes how painfully unfair the current situation is so I was interested in how he would reconcile that with being a huge Biden supporter with yesterday's news. His stance seems to be something like "Yeah this isn't great but surely you don't think this means we should support Trump..." Well to me it does, as a Canadian citizen Biden just articulated a policy that would tear a hole in Canada US trade, weaken North American energy security, enhance market share for Venezuela and Iran, and remove billions of dollars from future GDP that we will need to pay off this COVID debt. How's Biden going to make up for that? That's what every Canadian should be asking, I would bet he doesn't have a good answer. The benefits of having someone you like, even if he's a nicer guy or whatever, is not worth the real tangible cost to our economy. I get that people hate trump and if you were an American citizen there'd be reasons to vote for Biden that would improve your life but strictly as a Canadian right now I see a ton of down side and no upside offer in return. Biden would immediately kick all of us in the nuts and we'd thank him and ask for another just like we did with Obama it's bizarre.

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

If the USA was looking to get a pipe through Canada to supply oil to a Canadian refinery, would you be for it or against it?

I'd be against it. I'd rather Canadian industry fill our refineries. I assume the US desire for Keystone must be to secure heavy oil and it's a Canada vs. Venezuela question, because otherwise I have no idea why anyone there would support it.

Mostly that, but also US labor force involved in construction and monitoring, tens of millions of annual property tax dollars to the states it crosses, and their exporters at the Gulf coast would get a cut of the barrels they load on tankers since we don't have those capabilities here. But yeah, I mean if I was the average American I wouldn't really care all that much one way or the other. It's pretty small potatoes on the general scope of the election it serves more as a sacrificial lamb to the crazies than anything.

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by AFireInside

Right, kind of like how everyone in this province complains about the things the federal government does but when Kenney does the exact same thing or worse, it's no problem as long as he's giving money to O & G.

Come on man.

I am not excusing Kenney for anything, but wonder what he does that is the exact same as Trudeau?

Anyways My point was Canadians need to stop looking outward for approval. It seems our country is obsessed with being more Woke (is that still a word?) than the USA and we will cut off our nose to spite our faces to keep the appearance of that.

We killing off a major contributor to our shared economy, for what? So some people in another country can look over and encourage us to keep hurting ourselves while they happily tale the money we don’t?