Coronavirus All Purpose Thread: The unnecessary Dumb Dumb 4th wave

[keenan87]

No leaks on the press conference today probably means no additional restrictions at this time.

[Fuzz]

553 Cases on December 16 - 9,700 tests, 5.5% positivity
627 Cases on December 17 - 10,063 tests, 6.2% positivity
721 Cases on December 18 - 8,710 tests, 8.3% positivity
577 Cases on December 19 - 6,504 tests, 8.9% positivity
786 Cases on December 20 - 7305 tests, 10.8% positivity
1,346 Cases on December 21 - 11,516 tests 11.7% positivity
1,625 Cases on December 22 - 11,800 tests 13.6% positivity


318 in hospital, 64 in ICU

[Wormius]

So the ICU numbers remaining pretty flat look promising so far no?

[Fuzz]

Cases doubled in 2 days. Ooof.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Wormius

So the ICU numbers remaining pretty flat look promising so far no?

I think it's probably too soon to tell, just based on numbers. 10 days ago we were basically at our baseline of ~300 cases, so I don't think ICU numbers will show up from this recent explosion.

[flames_fan_down_under]

Hospitalizations are still flat in BC with ICU numbers dropping (as of yesterday), there is of course a lag for things to materialize into meaningful numbers. I will say that the car line at at drive through testing site at 33rd and cambie is incredibly long. Down cambie, turning onto King Ed and stretching to Oak (obviously doesn’t paint a picture for anyone who doesn’t live here).

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by cgy-sk-import

Any thoughts on Omicron being extremely extremely widespread in the community now? While I was away on my trip (see the Flight Travel during Covid thread) - a group of my friends had a Christmas party, 12 in attendance. Keep in mind this was 2 weeks ago. Every single person has tested positive, and only 3 were double vaxxed, the remaining 9 were boosted. Further, EVERY SINGLE person's immediate family member has now tested positive.

Can't believe this... to date I have not tested positive and have not seen any of these individuals as we've been isolating post-trip, as well as to have our elderly parents here for Christmas. But, holy absolute crap!

How many symptomatic / asymptomatic and how severe are the symptoms for everyone you know who have it?

I think it's a given, everyone will get it, if not already have it within a month at this rate, regardless of lockdown measures.

[stazzy33]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

553 Cases on December 16 - 9,700 tests, 5.5% positivity
627 Cases on December 17 - 10,063 tests, 6.2% positivity
721 Cases on December 18 - 8,710 tests, 8.3% positivity
577 Cases on December 19 - 6,504 tests, 8.9% positivity
786 Cases on December 20 - 7305 tests, 10.8% positivity
1,346 Cases on December 21 - 11,516 tests 11.7% positivity
1,625 Cases on December 22 - 11,800 tests 13.6% positivity


318 in hospital, 64 in ICU

So, with doubling every two days:

24th - 2400
25th - 3200
26th - 4800
27th - 6400
28th - 9600

We'll be at almost 10,000 cases per day by the time the Government is done their "well deserved break", and decides to brief us and provide daily numbers again...

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by stazzy33

So, with doubling every two days:

24th - 2400
25th - 3200
26th - 4800
27th - 6400
28th - 9600

We'll be at almost 10,000 cases per day by the time the Government is done their "well deserved break", and decides to brief us and provide daily numbers again...

Except they won't be testing nearly as much(which I get) so we'll mostly be flying blind anyway.

[Fuzz]

LOL at Dr Hinshaw dancing around the questions around UCP parties, and cabinet confidentiality regarding her possibly telling them she wanted more restrictions.

[MoneyGuy]

She’s always dodged any comments on the activities of politicians that could be considered criticism, as she should.

[Flames0910]

Originally Posted by stazzy33

So, with doubling every two days:

24th - 2400
25th - 3200
26th - 4800
27th - 6400
28th - 9600

We'll be at almost 10,000 cases per day by the time the Government is done their "well deserved break", and decides to brief us and provide daily numbers again...

Guessing this might be a little high given the lack of testing but 6000 cases on the 28th seems like a reasonable guess to me.

Taking a five day break on reporting with a virus that doubles every 2-3 days? Unconscionable.

####.

[Flames0910]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

She’s always dodged any comments on the activities of politicians that could be considered criticism, as she should.

As she should?

That’s like saying McDavid deserves a free lane to the net because he puts buts in seats.

If the politicians do something wrong like gathering with 200 people hours after a request from the government to do everything possible to cut social contacts then she should call them out for paddling in the wrong direction. Pretending not to see it and saying it wasn’t technically wrong encourages more of the same behaviour.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Wormius

So the ICU numbers remaining pretty flat look promising so far no?

Better than the alternative, but a bit too soon to tell. Last wave it took 2 weeks from when cases started rising before ICU numbers started to rise.

I suspect ICU admissions will be less of an issue, but hospitalizations may spike. Here's a chart showing London's COVID cases vs. hospital admissions with a 7-day lag and a 40x multiplier (which assumes a 2.5% hospitalization rate):


https://i.imgur.com/d9EZwxh.jpg

So far at least, hospitalizations are following the same trajectory as cases, even after Omicron became dominant. If Omicron is far more mild than Delta, that blue line will skew hard to the right and down, but that hasn't happened yet.

[HitterD]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Except they won't be testing nearly as much(which I get) so we'll mostly be flying blind anyway.

Yea it seems testing capacity is going to be the biggest constraint here now, especially in Calgary.

My girlfriend took a PCR yesterday and has not received results yet over 24 hrs later. Certainly longer than I’ve experienced in the recent past, even though they warn it can take up to 72 hrs. I’ve never had a test throughout covid that took longer than 12-16 hrs for results

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by HitterD

Yea it seems testing capacity is going to be the biggest constraint here now, especially in Calgary.

My girlfriend took a PCR yesterday and has not received results yet over 24 hrs later. Certainly longer than I’ve experienced in the recent past, even though they warn it can take up to 72 hrs. I’ve never had a test throughout covid that took longer than 12-16 hrs for results

Mine took nearly 36 and this was one i took on Monday. Hinshaw said Calgary was over its testing capacity and more then 20% positive.

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by Flames0910

As she should?

That’s like saying McDavid deserves a free lane to the net because he puts buts in seats.

If the politicians do something wrong like gathering with 200 people hours after a request from the government to do everything possible to cut social contacts then she should call them out for paddling in the wrong direction. Pretending not to see it and saying it wasn’t technically wrong encourages more of the same behaviour.

Staffers should avoid being seen as publicly criticizing politicians. That’s for behind doors.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by stazzy33

So, with doubling every two days:

24th - 2400
25th - 3200
26th - 4800
27th - 6400
28th - 9600

We'll be at almost 10,000 cases per day by the time the Government is done their "well deserved break", and decides to brief us and provide daily numbers again...

It’s unlikely we ever hit 9600 recorded cases. Our testing capacity is somewhere around the 10-12k per day so you need to hit 75% positivity to hit that number. The Antigen testing rules are do to lack of capacity.

South Africa hit 60%+ positivity during their omicron outbreak.

Looking at our world in data Omicron started its rise Dec 1st and peaked somewhere around the 20th so about 3 weeks. Denmark started on the 5th and just showed it’s first lower point but there testing is maxed out so watching the next few days for their peak would match SA. UK started on the 13th so peak if following SA would be New Years.

Alberta started about 4 days ago. So maybe Jan 10th or so is the peak.

Big caveat around South Africa’s prior infection rates may be providing more immunity than Canada would have.

[Flames0910]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

Staffers should avoid being seen as publicly criticizing politicians. That’s for behind doors.

Disagree. During a public health crisis, public health officials should have the ability to speak their minds. Paying undue deference to politicians instead of to the science is part of why we are where we are.

[HitterD]

Originally Posted by GGG

It’s unlikely we ever hit 9600 recorded cases. Our testing capacity is somewhere around the 10-12k per day so you need to hit 75% positivity to hit that number. The Antigen testing rules are do to lack of capacity.

South Africa hit 60%+ positivity during their omicron outbreak.

Looking at our world in data Omicron started its rise Dec 1st and peaked somewhere around the 20th so about 3 weeks. Denmark started on the 5th and just showed it’s first lower point but there testing is maxed out so watching the next few days for their peak would match SA. UK started on the 13th so peak if following SA would be New Years.

Alberta started about 4 days ago. So maybe Jan 10th or so is the peak.

Big caveat around South Africa’s prior infection rates may be providing more immunity than Canada would have.

And Hinshaw said today that people should consider a rapid test confirmation of covid and not get a PCR to confirm anymore. Our reported numbers are going to be artificially low for quite some time now