Coronavirus All Purpose Thread: The unnecessary Dumb Dumb 4th wave

[Amethyst]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

Looking locally, does it even matter what Hinshaw/Kenney say about "christmas rules"? Is anyone actually going to listen to it?

I assume at this point everyone is just using their own judgment and comfort letter based on their vax/booster/kids status and deciding what works for them.

It doesn't matter to me at all. I've been pretty cautious the entire pandemic and will continue to do so. But I stopped listening to Hinshaw and Kenney when they took the summer off.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

I’m having to decide if my wife and I will attend my extended family’s Christmas gathering. We have 10 families with about 24 people. All of the adults but one have two doses (one is single vaccinated). All of the children are vaccinated as far as I know.

I think the rules will change next week. Right now I’m 50-50 assuming they’re loosened.

I will be shocked if they are loosened. Although Alberta may Alberta.

[getbak]

I'll be shocked if they aren't loosened to some degree. I think the only way they aren't is if Omicron explodes and the hospital numbers shoot up.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by getbak

I'll be shocked if they aren't loosened to some degree. I think the only way they aren't is if Omicron explodes and the hospital numbers shoot up.

I'm not an expert and given Alberta and Sask finished their last wave so late and got hit so hard, maybe they will get a break here. But the northern US, Ontario, Manitoba are all trending up. Seems unlikely Western Canada gets spared to me.

Of course - hospitalizations may be different.

[MoneyGuy]

I’d also be shocked if the aren’t loosened. Kenney’s family couldn’t gather under current rules and I think he learned a hard lesson last time when that group was photographed on that rooftop. He’ll loosen them.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I'm not an expert and given Alberta and Sask finished their last wave so late and got hit so hard, maybe they will get a break here. But the northern US, Ontario, Manitoba are all trending up. Seems unlikely Western Canada gets spared to me.

It could be that the wave that hit Alberta, Saskatchewan, Idaho, Montana, Washington State and Oregon during the summer is finally hitting the Northeastern US and Eastern Canada. Restrictions that worked in the summer for those regions are no longer enough when cold weather causes more indoor activity and makes the average person more vulnerable to respiratory diseases.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by getbak

I'll be shocked if they aren't loosened to some degree. I think the only way they aren't is if Omicron explodes and the hospital numbers shoot up.

I’d be equally as shocked if a majority of people planned on following them. Everyone in my family (and extended) is vaccinated. If the police show up at my door, I’ll deal with that then.

[GGG]

An interesting Omicron article on how it could affect the UK. It’s mainly modeling so the accuracy is limited by assumptions of vaccine effectiveness and transmissibility and virulence. Virulence is probably the biggest unknown and is assumed to be equal to delta This work has not been peer reviewed.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.bbc....k-59621029.amp

What are the scenarios?
In the most optimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has low immune escape and booster jabs are highly effective, the model projects between 1 December and 30 April in England there will be:
20.9 million infections
175,000 hospital admissions
24,700 deaths
In the most pessimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has high immune escape and booster jabs are less effective, the model projects between 1 December and 30 April in England there will be:
34.2 million infections
492,000 hospital admissions
74,900 deaths

Looking at the optimistic scenarios they have about a 30% infection rate, an .875% hospitalization rate and a .125% death rate.

Link to study
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid...1_dec_2021.pdf

I think this puts some interesting book ends to what is coming with deaths and hospitalizations dropping if less virulent

One way or another Covid is ending and everyone is getting it.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Lets hope



Covid silver lining: ‘Extremely mild’ Omicron variant is rapidly killing off much more deadly Delta coronavirus mutation

I got my booster from my GP on Thursday and he mentioned that he and his colleagues were thinking the same thing. His caveat was that the next mutation needs to be less infectious and then COVID peters out like SARS did.

Fingers crossed this is what happens.

[Azure]

There seems to be a bit of delay in proper reporting due to a new computer system or something, so the next week or so will be important to watch, but things are trending correctly. ICU rates are not jumping, but could be still to early to be really sure, plus combination of lag on reporting.

Are they seeing a peak in cases as well? Again, delay in reporting is big, but 16.4% positivity rate on 100k tests compared to 22% to 29% on 70-80k tests the past week.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1469761851424706568

https://twitter.com/user/status/1469763536792530948

[Amethyst]

Seems like a lot of wishful thinking to me. It takes awhile for people to end up in the ICU and if reporting is delayed to begin with...

[Finger Cookin]

Anywhere to see numbers on vaccine rates for 5-12?

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

Anywhere to see numbers on vaccine rates for 5-12?

https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-1...m#vaccinations

Just over 20% done as of the end of Thursday.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by GGG

An interesting Omicron article on how it could affect the UK. It’s mainly modeling so the accuracy is limited by assumptions of vaccine effectiveness and transmissibility and virulence. Virulence is probably the biggest unknown and is assumed to be equal to delta This work has not been peer reviewed.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.bbc....k-59621029.amp



Looking at the optimistic scenarios they have about a 30% infection rate, an .875% hospitalization rate and a .125% death rate.

Link to study
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid...1_dec_2021.pdf

I think this puts some interesting book ends to what is coming with deaths and hospitalizations dropping if less virulent

One way or another Covid is ending and everyone is getting it.

The covid is ending conclusion seems pretty optimistic considering about 3 weeks ago we could've said it would end if we got 10%-15% more of the population vaccinated.

We may all get it, but the odds of it not evolving again into something we all get again aren't exactly 0.

Feels much more likely that this doesn't end, we adapt to the new health care needs and learn to live with it.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

[calgarygeologist]

Bill de Blasio in NYC is leaving quite the legacy as his last month in office runs down. I wonder how much of this the new Mayor will scrap in his early tenure.

Bill is mandating vaccines for all workplaces in NYC and he is also mandating that kids 5+ will require proof of vaccination in order to eat in a restaurant and participate in other activities such as sports and physical activities.

[EldrickOnIce]

Started to feel symptoms of what turned out to be a pretty nasty head cold last Sunday. Drive thru testing available everywhere here so tested Monday through Thursday, negative.
Thinking about it, in a strange way its actually kind of comforting knowing that you can get sick like this without getting covid. Yay vaccine.

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Started to feel symptoms of what turned out to be a pretty nasty head cold last Sunday. Drive thru testing available everywhere here so tested Monday through Thursday, negative.
Thinking about it, in a strange way its actually kind of comforting knowing that you can get sick like this without getting covid. Yay vaccine.

We were all feeling a bit sick (sneezing, runny nose, sore throat), but none of the telltale covid symptoms. Got tested and results came back negative. Guess just a regular cold going around now.

[chedder]

Anyone know if you get an antibody test and you're vaccinated does it show if you've actually had covid? Or just that you have antibodies? Does it show the amount you still have ie. How well you're still protected?

[FurnaceFace]

Originally Posted by chedder

Anyone know if you get an antibody test and you're vaccinated does it show if you've actually had covid? Or just that you have antibodies? Does it show the amount you still have ie. How well you're still protected?

A coworker in the US told me about his Covid experience. His doctor was able to complete tests showing what his antibody level was. They monitored his levels over a number of months and when they dropped below a level the doc told him to get his vaccine shots.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by chedder

Anyone know if you get an antibody test and you're vaccinated does it show if you've actually had covid? Or just that you have antibodies? Does it show the amount you still have ie. How well you're still protected?

If the test targets antibodies against the N protein, that would show an infection even if you're vaccinated. The vaccine only produces spike protein antibodies, so a response to the N protein means you've been infected at some point.

And some antibody tests will show levels of antibodies. But the issue is, N antibodies aren't all that useful for protection, so only S protein antibody tests will give you any idea of what level of protection you have. And even then, the levels of circulating antibodies doesn't necessarily correlate to your actual level of protection. But that said, if you wanted to both detect a past infection and determine current antibody levels, you'd likely need to take 2 different tests or take a single multiplex test that checks for both S and N protein antibodies.