Coronavirus All Purpose Thread: The unnecessary Dumb Dumb 4th wave

[Azure]

Originally Posted by opendoor

An infection from 1.5 years ago wouldn't qualify as immune anywhere in the world that I'm aware of.

Not saying it should, and in this case the evidence is anecdotal and meaningless, though we were pretty relieved when he didn't get sick. His wife is also not vaccinated because of previous infection & sickness with long repercussions at the same time, and actually has an auto immune disease that requires blood transfusions about once per month, and she's been okay as well.

But there is more data coming out that an infection up to 6-8 months previous provides strong immunity, and if anything we need to seriously research it because infinite boosters requirements are going to lead to less uptake with each round, and we all know the mandates are going to change soon to require the booster.

Our great country and the incompetent's morons that run it just refuse to acknowledge what the science and many other countries are saying, and not just with mandates, but with many other things like travel bans, testing restrictions, etc.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by opendoor

It's also possible they've just hit their testing capacity limit (hence the ridiculously high positivity). They're currently testing as many people per day as they have in the entire pandemic.

Also, I'm not sure an anti-lockdown mildly antivax engineer with no apparent training in medicine or epidemiology is really a great source for this. Here are some previous gems from him:

https://twitter.com/pieterstreicher/...03279190290441

https://twitter.com/pieterstreicher/...37705058930690

To quote those 'gems.'

1 of 5:

C-19 vaccines will primarily reduce severe disease and death.

Vaccinating the vulnerable is key.

Vaccination does not prevent infection or transmission.

Can we all please stop putting undue pressure on young and healthy people to get the vax.

This week I am going for my 2nd dose of the Pfizer vax.

The vaccines are completely safe as there is no evidence of long-term adverse effects regardless of how many doses are given. The absence of evidence is the evidence of absence, one of the key principles of EBM.

Do you disagree with these points?

Either way, I don't follow him because of his advice on vaccines, but because he aggregates the data on what is happening on South Africa.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Azure

To quote those 'gems.'

Do you disagree with these points?

Either way, I don't follow him because of his advice on vaccines, but because he aggregates the data on what is happening on South Africa.

Yes. "Vaccination does not prevent infection or transmission" is demonstrably incorrect. Vaccination massively reduces the chances of infection and transmission (vaccinated are currently about 80% less likely to test positive in Canada).

And the 2nd quote is him being sarcastic. He's implying that we don't know the long term effects of the vaccines (while ignoring that vaccines essentially never have long term effects that don't present themselves almost right away), a typical antivaxxer trope.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Yes. "Vaccination does not prevent infection or transmission" is demonstrably incorrect. Vaccination massively reduces the chances of infection and transmission (vaccinated are currently about 80% less likely to test positive in Canada).

And the 2nd quote is him being sarcastic. He's implying that we don't know the long term effects of the vaccines (while ignoring that vaccines essentially never have long term effects that don't present themselves almost right away), a typical antivaxxer trope.

It severely reduces the chance, yes, but doesn't prevent.

In Manitoba, as of Dec 9, 45% of all cases are double vaccinated, 33% of people in the hospital for COVID are double vaccinated. EDIT, forgot picture.



As for the second comment, I never actually read it that way, but like I said I don't follow him for his vaccination arguments. Never even saw those comments to be honest.

But, fair enough.

[AFireInside]

Originally Posted by Azure

It severely reduces the chance, yes, but doesn't prevent.

In Manitoba, as of Nov 27, 44% of all cases are double vaccinated, 35% of people in the hospital for COVID are double vaccinated, we are now up to 21% of patients in ICU being double vaccinated, and 50% of deaths due to COVID are double vaccinated.

As for the second comment, I never actually read it that way, but like I said I don't follow him for his vaccination arguments. Never even saw those comments to be honest.

But, fair enough.

Active cases as of December 9th, the Manitoba dashboard says

96% of patients in the ICU are unvaxxed.

62% of hospitalizations are unvaxxed.
56% of active cases are unvaxxed.

78% of all elligible people in Manitoba are vaccinated, with the largest unvaxxed group being kids obviously.

Where did you see the 21%, just curious if there's something missing here. Alberta shows for the past 120 days 87% of all covid ICU admissions were unvaxxed.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by AFireInside

Active cases as of December 9th, the Manitoba dashboard says

96% of patients in the ICU are unvaxxed.

62% of hospitalizations are unvaxxed.
56% of active cases are unvaxxed.

78% of all elligible people in Manitoba are vaccinated, with the largest unvaxxed group being kids obviously.

Where did you see the 21%, just curious if there's something missing here. Alberta shows for the past 120 days 87% of all covid ICU admissions were unvaxxed.

I edited my post because I couldn't believe those #s either, but I got them from here, and then realized it was a snapshot of 1 week I think.



https://www.gov.mb.ca/health/publich...-19/index.html

[Scroopy Noopers]

Take a second and stop spam quoting articles and images and you won’t make mistakes.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Azure

It severely reduces the chance, yes, but doesn't prevent.

By that logic, no vaccine prevents infection or transmission since none are categorically 100% effective.

In Manitoba, as of Dec 9, 45% of all cases are double vaccinated, 33% of people in the hospital for COVID are double vaccinated. EDIT, forgot picture.

Which is an 83.7% risk reduction for fully vaccinated people in terms of cases. That's a huge effect. For hospitalizations, you would need to age adjust the stats. In BC it's about a 95% risk reduction still.

[AFireInside]

Originally Posted by Azure

I edited my post because I couldn't believe those #s either, but I got them from here, and then realized it was a snapshot of 1 week I think.


https://www.gov.mb.ca/health/publich...-19/index.html

The rate of hospitalization is the important number now that so many are vaccinated though. I'm assuming Manitoba is similar to Alberta, but here's the past 120 days in Alberta. As a number, the vaccinated are making up a decent chunk of the hospitalizations, but as a rate per 100k, it becomes very clear how much vaccines reduce hospitalizations.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by opendoor

By that logic, no vaccine prevents infection or transmission since none are categorically 100% effective.

Which is an 83.7% risk reduction for fully vaccinated people in terms of cases. That's a huge effect. For hospitalizations, you would need to age adjust the stats. In BC it's about a 95% risk reduction still.

True, it is massive.

Speaking of BC, I still don't get why Manitoba is so different than BC on the risk reduction percentage.

Wouldn't BC have more travel related risk, more clusters of people closer together, etc?

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Azure

True, it is massive.

Speaking of BC, I still don't get why Manitoba is so different than BC on the risk reduction percentage.

Wouldn't BC have more travel related risk, more clusters of people closer together, etc?

I don't think they are different. For cases, BC is showing an 86.2% risk reduction over the last 2 weeks. And for hospitalizations, I imagine if you age adjusted Manitoba's stats (as BC's are and as the image above for Alberta is) you would get a similar ~95% risk reduction. When 90%+ of seniors are fully vaccinated and virtually no kids below 12 are, you can't compare the per 100K rate for hospitalizations without adjusting for age.

[corporatejay]

Looking locally, does it even matter what Hinshaw/Kenney say about "christmas rules"? Is anyone actually going to listen to it?

I assume at this point everyone is just using their own judgment and comfort letter based on their vax/booster/kids status and deciding what works for them.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Azure

It severely reduces the chance, yes, but doesn't prevent.

In Manitoba, as of Dec 9, 45% of all cases are double vaccinated, 33% of people in the hospital for COVID are double vaccinated. EDIT, forgot picture.



As for the second comment, I never actually read it that way, but like I said I don't follow him for his vaccination arguments. Never even saw those comments to be honest.

But, fair enough.

Why are you still making these false arguments when you have made them in the past, and it has been pointed out that the percentages hide the fact that there are many more vaccinated than unvacinated? A point you accepted in the past, but now we are back here?


Frankly I think most of your conclusions and narrative you push, along with your "friend" anecdotes are tough to swallow. A husband and wife, both with issues so severe they can't get vaccinated? What are they, CPC MP's?

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

Looking locally, does it even matter what Hinshaw/Kenney say about "christmas rules"? Is anyone actually going to listen to it?

I assume at this point everyone is just using their own judgment and comfort letter based on their vax/booster/kids status and deciding what works for them.

Barring some big change (like hundreds of Omicron cases a day within the next couple of weeks) I doubt many people are going to listen to or abide by any real restrictions on gatherings. And honestly, based on the Omicron growth rates we're seeing in highly immune countries, I think it makes sense to enjoy socialization now, because who knows what early 2022 is going to be like. Hopefully it'll be fine, but there's a chance it won't be.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Azure

Not saying it should, and in this case the evidence is anecdotal and meaningless, though we were pretty relieved when he didn't get sick. His wife is also not vaccinated because of previous infection & sickness with long repercussions at the same time, and actually has an auto immune disease that requires blood transfusions about once per month, and she's been okay as well.

But there is more data coming out that an infection up to 6-8 months previous provides strong immunity, and if anything we need to seriously research it because infinite boosters requirements are going to lead to less uptake with each round, and we all know the mandates are going to change soon to require the booster.

Our great country and the incompetent's morons that run it just refuse to acknowledge what the science and many other countries are saying, and not just with mandates, but with many other things like travel bans, testing restrictions, etc.

I'm kind of confused by this. You used your friend, 1.5 years out from a COVID diagnosis, as evidence of natural immunity and the failing of the government to recognize it. But then you're admitting no other government does (or even should, in your words) recognize that as natural immunity... and you're presenting data for 6 months post-infection as opposed to 1.5 years as evidence of... what?

What was the point in bringing up your friend? I don't understand.

[AFireInside]

Originally Posted by Azure

It severely reduces the chance, yes, but doesn't prevent.

In Manitoba, as of Nov 27, 44% of all cases are double vaccinated, 35% of people in the hospital for COVID are double vaccinated, we are now up to 21% of patients in ICU being double vaccinated, and 50% of deaths due to COVID are double vaccinated.

As for the second comment, I never actually read it that way, but like I said I don't follow him for his vaccination arguments. Never even saw those comments to be honest.

But, fair enough.

Active cases as of December 9th, the Manitoba dashboard says



96% of patients in the ICU are unvaxxed.

62% of hospitalizations are unvaxxed.
56% of active cases are unvaxxed.



78% of all elligible people in Manitoba are vaccinated, with the largest unvaxxed group being kids obviously.



Where did you see the 21%, just curious if there's something missing here. Alberta shows for the past 120 days 87% of all covid ICU admissions were unvaxxed.

[Knut]

Worrisome early numbers out of the UK. Boosters are key it looks like.

AZ x 2 showing zero effectiveness at preventing disease. Still good
For severe.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1469351833416122369

[Azure]

Originally Posted by AFireInside

Active cases as of December 9th, the Manitoba dashboard says



96% of patients in the ICU are unvaxxed.

62% of hospitalizations are unvaxxed.
56% of active cases are unvaxxed.



78% of all elligible people in Manitoba are vaccinated, with the largest unvaxxed group being kids obviously.



Where did you see the 21%, just curious if there's something missing here. Alberta shows for the past 120 days 87% of all covid ICU admissions were unvaxxed.

I assume double post, but answer up above.

Manitoba does weekly snapshots, plus overall day per day changes based on testing results, etc.

Overall Manitoba shows 96% of all COVID ICU admissions are unvaxxed which seems to be holding consistent despite weekly blips.

The ICU #s have held steady in Manitoba for a while now actually, which has been great to see despite our system suffering like crazy right now even with the reduced #s. Of course our government is acting like they have no idea.

This is not because of record numbers of COVID cases or COVID patients. The fourth wave of the pandemic has been significant, but not quite devastating, thanks to vaccinations.

Instead, hospitals are struggling because they can't find enough people to work in ICUs.

This is happening even as Monday's total ICU patient burden stood at 90 people, which is only two thirds the patient count on that horrible day in May — and one of the lower totals disclosed by Shared Health since the start of the pandemic.

Faced with the task of ramping up ICU capacity to ensure no patient will ever be transferred out of province again, Manitoba has been unable to manage even a diminishing patient load.

"Every day has become an exercise in 'Where do we find the next bed?' " Dr. Eric Jacobsohn, a St. Boniface hospital ICU physician, said on Monday. "This whole morning has been 'Who is going where?' "

The issue is not a lack of space for ICU patients. It's sufficient quantities of people trained to work in ICUs.

On Monday morning, Health Minister Audrey Gordon said this was news to her.

"We certainly have the ability to scale up our ICU capacity well beyond what it is right now," she said.

Hours later, Shared Health conceded it does not have enough nurses to work in ICU and has fallen short of its fourth-wave target to ramp up ICU capacity to 110 beds.

In a statement, Shared Health said Manitoba nurses are refusing incentives to work in ICUs and are refusing to be reassigned there.

The Manitoba Nurses Union refused to accept this explanation.

"Plain and simply put, there was a [nursing] shortage pre-pandemic, and because the employer did nothing to retain or attract new nurses, there is nothing that can magically make nurses appear overnight," Manitoba Nurses Union president Darlene Jackson said in a statement.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manit...isis-1.6276058

[kevman]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

Looking locally, does it even matter what Hinshaw/Kenney say about "christmas rules"? Is anyone actually going to listen to it?

I assume at this point everyone is just using their own judgment and comfort letter based on their vax/booster/kids status and deciding what works for them.

That's exactly what crossed my mind the last time I heard they haven't made a decision on Christmas.

We're gathering for Christmas. 11 of us from 5 households. Everyone is double vaxxed except my parents who got their boosters this week. Active cases in Calgary are currently ~1 in 1,000.

[MoneyGuy]

I’m having to decide if my wife and I will attend my extended family’s Christmas gathering. We have 10 families with about 24 people. All of the adults but one have two doses (one is single vaccinated). All of the children are vaccinated as far as I know.

I think the rules will change next week. Right now I’m 50-50 assuming they’re loosened.