Coronavirus All Purpose Thread: The unnecessary Dumb Dumb 4th wave

[Julio]

Interesting article on what I refer to as 'Covid Theatre' regarding what does, and what doesn't stop transmission.

https://www.macleans.ca/society/heal...mA2Waz_akxuvY0

[Azure]

Ventilation. Who'd have thought.

When I asked the Government of Canada how much support they allocated to actually funding good ventilation, Infrastructure Canada pointed to a $150 million pot of money, announced in April, to install new ventilation systems in hospitals, schools, public buildings, and in First Nations communities. That’s good! But the Government of Canada has spent more than twice as much on hand sanitizer. CBC found Ottawa spent nearly $1 billion per day throughout the pandemic. Every level of government should have prioritized better airflow and improved filtration more than a year ago. They didn’t.

Good lord.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Julio

Interesting article on what I refer to as 'Covid Theatre' regarding what does, and what doesn't stop transmission.

https://www.macleans.ca/society/heal...mA2Waz_akxuvY0

From the article:

I was chatting, recently, with someone inside the government on the COVID-19 file. Why not drop all this nonsense about surface transmission? I asked. They sighed, explaining the attitude inside government: Going harder on the reality of airborne transmission would mean acknowledging that the incessant reminders around handwashing and face-touching — while relatively good advice in a normal flu season — were ineffective in fighting this pandemic. People will feel lied to. Trust will plummet.

So our leaders sustain a fiction - at great cost in public and private resources - in order to maintain trust in government. That’s ####ing Orwellian.

[Azure]

The UK medicines regulator has become the first in the world to approve an oral antiviral pill for Covid in a move that paves the way for tens of thousands of vulnerable patients to receive the treatment from this winter.

Nearly half a million doses of molnupiravir, a pill that can be taken twice daily at home, are due for delivery from mid-November and will be given as a priority to elderly Covid patients and those with particular vulnerabilities, such as weakened immune systems. The drug will initially be given to patients through a national study run by the NHS.

Molnupiravir interferes with the virus’s ability to replicate, meaning it is less able to multiply and reach high enough levels in the respiratory system to cause severe disease. Because the drug is most effective when given in the early stages of infection, the MHRA recommends it is used as soon as possible after a positive test for Covid and within five days of symptoms appearing.

The drug is approved for people with mild to moderate Covid and at least one risk factor for developing severe illness, such as obesity, diabetes mellitus, heart disease, or being older than 60.

“Following a rigorous review of the data by our expert scientists and clinicians, we are satisfied that Lagevrio [molnupiravir] is safe and effective for those at risk of developing severe Covid-19 disease and have granted its approval,” said Dr June Raine, the MHRA chief executive.

“Lagevrio is another therapeutic to add to our armoury against Covid-19. It is also the world’s first approved antiviral for this disease that can be taken by mouth rather than administered intravenously. This is important because it means it can be administered outside of a hospital setting, before Covid-19 has progressed to a severe stage.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...box=1636030166

[Fuzz]

Pfizer's got one, too!

Pfizer Inc. said Friday that its experimental antiviral pill for COVID-19 cut rates of hospitalization and death by nearly 90 per cent in high-risk adults, as the drugmaker joins the race to bring the first easy-to-use medication against the coronavirus to the U.S. market.

Pfizer released preliminary results Friday of its study of 775 adults. Patients who received the company's drug along with another antiviral shortly after showing COVID-19 symptoms had an 89 per cent reduction in their combined rate of hospitalization or death after a month, compared to patients taking a dummy pill.
Fewer than one per cent of patients taking the drug needed to be hospitalized and no one died. In the comparison group, seven per cent were hospitalized and there were seven deaths.

Study participants were unvaccinated, with mild-to-moderate COVID-19, and were considered high risk for hospitalization due to health problems like obesity, diabetes or heart disease. Treatment began within three to five days of initial symptoms, and lasted for five days. Patients who received the drug earlier showed slightly better results, underscoring the need for speedy testing and treatment.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/pfizer...pill-1.6238200


If we can't eradicate the virus, things like this become incredibly important for saving lives.

[Knut]

Parts of Europe hitting Wave 5 not too long after Wave 4. A good test will be how much hospitalizations are decoupled there.

[opendoor]

Pfizer's looks significantly better based on those results, though both need to be taken pretty quickly after symptom onset to have the most benefit. It'll be interesting to see how it's used, because the results look excellent, but at $700 per treatment, it's really only going to be viable for a portion of the population. Hopefully they allow generic drug companies to produce it to significantly lower the price. Unlike vaccines, there likely isn't a technical or material limitation to producing these drugs, so this is where governments might want to consider strong-arming pharmaceutical companies with the threat of waiving patents in order to ensure access.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by Knut

Parts of Europe hitting Wave 5 not too long after Wave 4. A good test will be how much hospitalizations are decoupled there.

Any indication as to what is driving this?

[guzzy]

Originally Posted by Azure

Ventilation. Who'd have thought.



Good lord.

They will release more money as soon as there are ex-Liberal MP's or massive Liberal donors who enter the HVAC business. That's the Liberal way.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Pfizer's got one, too!
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/pfizer...pill-1.6238200


If we can't eradicate the virus, things like this become incredibly important for saving lives.

I wonder what the anti vax/freedom people think of these pills.
Hopefully it's something they might support.

[Knut]

Originally Posted by Lubicon

Any indication as to what is driving this?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59160525

The rate of vaccination has slowed across the continent in recent months. While some 80% of people in Spain are double jabbed, in Germany it is as low as 66% - and far lower in some Eastern European countries. Only 32% of Russians were fully vaccinated by October 2021.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

I wonder what the anti vax/freedom people think of these pills.
Hopefully it's something they might support.

I suspect it will certainly encourage some people to not get vaccinated now. If there is a pill to treat you then why bother with the vaccination. That will be their reasoning.

[Azure]

If the pills are effective, this is over. 90% reduction in hospitalization & death rates?

Combined with vaccinations, COVID is beat. Even at $700 per shot (probably costs quite more to have a patient in ICU).

[bigtmac19]

yes, but why would the conspiracy theorists think a brand new pill is safe - when they don't think a vaccine is safe? What is the difference? The hypocrisy, as usual, is mind blowing.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by bigtmac19

yes, but why would the conspiracy theorists think a brand new pill is safe - when they don't think a vaccine is safe? What is the difference? The hypocrisy, as usual, is mind blowing.

They already trust the little blue pills made by Pfizer.


"These pills make your dingle tingle. These pills make your COVID go-vid."

[calf]

Originally Posted by bigtmac19

yes, but why would the conspiracy theorists think a brand new pill is safe - when they don't think a vaccine is safe? What is the difference? The hypocrisy, as usual, is mind blowing.

Coming to terms with themselves will be a hard pill to swallow.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Knut

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59160525

There's definitely a lot of breakthrough cases too. Through the fall we've also seen seasonal increases in cases. The big issue is that most European nations don't have nearly as many restrictions in place now as they did a year ago.

The good news is that most Western European countries have most of their vulnerable populations double vaxed and deaths are a fraction of what they were in previous waves. For example in the UK, they've had a lot of cases since their latest surge started in July or so. Death rates are still down over 85% from the peak of their last wave (which also occurred after at least some vaccinations, so likely would have been even higher).

Case counts in the UK never reached the peak of the last wave in January 2021, but they've had sustained infection at a high rate since July. Deaths have been at a fraction of what they were, and that's with far fewer restrictions. So vaccines look to be working.

Edit: Another great example is the Netherlands:

It is estimated that 87.5% of all people over 18 have received at least one vaccination and 84.1% are fully vaccinated. 85.4% of all people over 12 years old have received at least one vaccination, and 82.1% are fully vaccinated.

https://www.rivm.nl/en/covid-19-vacc...tion-programme

Very high vaccination rates, yet they are still experiencing a large new wave in cases. Deaths are still down about 85% from previous large waves though.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by Azure

If the pills are effective, this is over. 90% reduction in hospitalization & death rates?

Combined with vaccinations, COVID is beat. Even at $700 per shot (probably costs quite more to have a patient in ICU).

Absolutely, probably by an order of magnitude per day.

[Azure]

It is now obvious that the focus should be on hospitalization & ICU rates, along with the death count.

Real word usage of the vaccines are showing that we'll still get breakthrough cases, but very high protection against serious illness & death.

Comorbidities are playing a large role as well, but I am curious what the role is when comparing COVID to the flu as an example?

At the country-level, there appears to be no discernable relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days (Fig. 1). In fact, the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people. Notably, Israel with over 60% of their population fully vaccinated had the highest COVID-19 cases per 1 million people in the last 7 days. The lack of a meaningful association between percentage population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases is further exemplified, for instance, by comparison of Iceland and Portugal. Both countries have over 75% of their population fully vaccinated and have more COVID-19 cases per 1 million people than countries such as Vietnam and South Africa that have around 10% of their population fully vaccinated.

The sole reliance on vaccination as a primary strategy to mitigate COVID-19 and its adverse consequences needs to be re-examined, especially considering the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant and the likelihood of future variants. Other pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions may need to be put in place alongside increasing vaccination rates. Such course correction, especially with regards to the policy narrative, becomes paramount with emerging scientific evidence on real world effectiveness of the vaccines.

For instance, in a report released from the Ministry of Health in Israel, the effectiveness of 2 doses of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccine against preventing COVID-19 infection was reported to be 39% [6], substantially lower than the trial efficacy of 96% [7]. It is also emerging that immunity derived from the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine may not be as strong as immunity acquired through recovery from the COVID-19 virus [8]. A substantial decline in immunity from mRNA vaccines 6-months post immunization has also been reported [9]. Even though vaccinations offers protection to individuals against severe hospitalization and death, the CDC reported an increase from 0.01 to 9% and 0 to 15.1% (between January to May 2021) in the rates of hospitalizations and deaths, respectively, amongst the fully vaccinated [10].

In summary, even as efforts should be made to encourage populations to get vaccinated it should be done so with humility and respect. Stigmatizing populations can do more harm than good. Importantly, other non-pharmacological prevention efforts (e.g., the importance of basic public health hygiene with regards to maintaining safe distance or handwashing, promoting better frequent and cheaper forms of testing) needs to be renewed in order to strike the balance of learning to live with COVID-19 in the same manner we continue to live a 100 years later with various seasonal alterations of the 1918 Influenza virus.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Azure

It is now obvious that the focus should be on hospitalization & ICU rates, along with the death count.

Real word usage of the vaccines are showing that we'll still get breakthrough cases, but very high protection against serious illness & death.

Comorbidities are playing a large role as well, but I am curious what the role is when comparing COVID to the flu as an example?



https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/

Hospitalization and ICU rates will remain a function of overall spread. If you decrease spread you decrease hospitalizations too, at least temporarily. I agree though, that non-severe covid infections are going to be a fact of life going forward.

I'm quite torn on the obsession with booster shots in non-vulnerable people and those already infected. At what point do we recognize that we have an obligation to begin full scale vaccination of vulnerable people in non-Western nations. Should our priority be giving a local young and healthy person their 3rd or 4th dose when someone with vulnerabilities in a less well off country is unable to get a vaccine at all.