Coronavirus All Purpose Thread: The unnecessary Dumb Dumb 4th wave

[calf]

817 cases today, 198 in hospital.

Best summer ever amirite?

[BoLevi]

Originally Posted by La Flames Fan

What is the CMOH's end game of not being more proactive to stats? She always says she's following the science, but doesn't seem to do anything until the last minute.

(I just wanted to be on page 1)

The stats show:

- So far in the fourth wave the hospitalizations look linear, but it's too early to conclude this
- Deaths are basically non-existent or negligible
- ICU admissions are climbing, but nowhere near capacity and also seem linear

In other words, vaccines are fundamentally changing the outcomes (death, hospitalizations, ICU), so far.

It is exceedingly unlikely for you to land in the ICU or to die from Covid if you have both vaccines. It's 'merely' highly unlikely that you will end up in the hospital with covid if you have both vaccines.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

wonder how long the CFL season is going to last.

I don't pay attention to CFL so what is the deal? Are they having outbreaks within the teams? Spread traced back to the fans at the games?

[Torture]

Do we need to have the talk about lagging indicators again?

[BoLevi]

Originally Posted by Torture

Do we need to have the talk about lagging indicators again?

don't confuse a lagging indicator with an endpoint

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

The stats show:

- So far in the fourth wave the hospitalizations look linear, but it's too early to conclude this
- Deaths are basically non-existent or negligible
- ICU admissions are climbing, but nowhere near capacity and also seem linear

In other words, vaccines are fundamentally changing the outcomes (death, hospitalizations, ICU), so far.

It is exceedingly unlikely for you to land in the ICU or to die from Covid if you have both vaccines. It's 'merely' highly unlikely that you will end up in the hospital with covid if you have both vaccines.

Here's 2 ~2 week periods for Alberta, orange is hospitalizations, purple is ICU(bottom of image is zero line). Can you tell which one is from which wave of covid(without referring to the Alberta data site to find out), enough to support your claims that they can't be compared?

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I'll play, I'm guessing the first one is the current one and the second one is from one of the earlier waves.

[united]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1428471848530976775

https://twitter.com/user/status/1428472936755712001

https://twitter.com/user/status/1428475884298768394

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

They've added some more poop data. You can click on the coloured areas of the map to see some community data. Looks generally like a gradual rise, but varies depending on area.


https://covid-tracker.chi-csm.ca/

Poop data not showing exponential growth through? Seems like potentially good news there.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

The stats show:

- So far in the fourth wave the hospitalizations look linear, but it's too early to conclude this
- Deaths are basically non-existent or negligible
- ICU admissions are climbing, but nowhere near capacity and also seem linear

In other words, vaccines are fundamentally changing the outcomes (death, hospitalizations, ICU), so far.

It is exceedingly unlikely for you to land in the ICU or to die from Covid if you have both vaccines. It's 'merely' highly unlikely that you will end up in the hospital with covid if you have both vaccines.

So far it looks a lot like prior waves. In fact, the hospital numbers right now are worse than in the fall wave at a similar case level:


Nov 4th:

555 7-day average for cases
170 in hospital w/ 31 in ICU
3.9 admissions per 100K per day

Today:

556 7-day average for cases
198 in hospital w/ 43 in ICU
4.1 admissions per 100K per day

[stazzy33]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

The stats show:

- So far in the fourth wave the hospitalizations look linear, but it's too early to conclude this
- Deaths are basically non-existent or negligible
- ICU admissions are climbing, but nowhere near capacity and also seem linear

In other words, vaccines are fundamentally changing the outcomes (death, hospitalizations, ICU), so far.

It is exceedingly unlikely for you to land in the ICU or to die from Covid if you have both vaccines. It's 'merely' highly unlikely that you will end up in the hospital with covid if you have both vaccines.

If it's too early to make a conclusion, why are you making a conclusion?

Also where is your data to back up your assertion? Everyone else who has provided data has shown the exact opposite of what you are saying?

[MoneyGuy]

Are the vaccines fully approved in Canada or just for emergency use?

[BoLevi]

Originally Posted by opendoor

So far it looks a lot like prior waves. In fact, the hospital numbers right now are worse than in the fall wave at a similar case level:


Nov 4th:

555 7-day average for cases
170 in hospital w/ 31 in ICU
3.9 admissions per 100K per day

Today:

556 7-day average for cases
198 in hospital w/ 43 in ICU
4.1 admissions per 100K per day

Admissions have been relatively linear so far. It's still a short period of time as I said, but they haven't tipped vertical yet. We've been adding similar amounts of patients to the hospitals on a daily basis and to the IC on a daily basis for 3+ weeks. Mean time to death has been 3 weeks, so it will be interesting to see how that outcome is modified in the current environment. Perhaps we see a lengthening of the mean time to death and/or a small portion of hospitalizations dying.

[BoLevi]

Originally Posted by stazzy33

If it's too early to make a conclusion, why are you making a conclusion?

Also where is your data to back up your assertion? Everyone else who has provided data has shown the exact opposite of what you are saying?

Too early to make some conclusions (growth dynamics of current wave), but not too early to make others (efficacy of vaccines).

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Poop data not showing exponential growth through? Seems like potentially good news there.

Ya, I'm not sure what to make of it. Why wouldn't it rise the same as the previous wave, and ahead of the case increase we see now? Did we just miss a lot more cases before? I don't really think that makes sense. I haven't compared it against specific cases by area, is Calgary leveled off? Or maybe the data just isn't as reliable as we think. Hopefully they figure out these correlations, if this is the plan going forward.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

Too early to make some conclusions (growth dynamics of current wave), but not too early to make others (efficacy of vaccines).

Not willing to discuss the similar looking graphs I posted?

[djsFlames]

Cases being primarily children is actually encouraging.

Those infections at least can't really be helped.

[BoLevi]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Not willing to discuss the similar looking graphs I posted?

I didn't find it interesting, no.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

I didn't find it interesting, no.

Is that because it shows the opposite of what you keep going on about?

[Torture]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1428498329332174848