Coronavirus All Purpose Thread: The unnecessary Dumb Dumb 4th wave

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by lambeburger

You could ask yourself this question at any time or place regardless of the pandemic.

The issue is right now, if you believe our healthcare system is at the precipice of catastrophic failure (by that I mean triage of ICU and potentially life saving intervention). If the ICU numbers were lower, I wouldn’t personally hesitate to go to the game. When our own government is soliciting help to take care of our critically ill, some self reflection and increased concern is warranted in my view.

[DoubleK]

Random anecdote of the day.

I golf in Okotoks on Wednesday nights and our group goes for wings and a pint after the round, usually at the Boston Pizza on the main drag.

Last week the bar side was packed and there wasn't a table to be had. Fast forward one week and the place was deserted. There were only three other tables that had groups in them. Our server told us traffic was down 75% week over week.

I was quite surprised, I guess I shouldn't be, but it was very noticeable and not that far from Calgary.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by lambeburger

Your sanctimony isn't welcome. I know how serious things are in the hospitals right now. I also know health care workers and people whose surgeries have been delayed.

The situation sucks, I know it does. I want it to get better too. We are where we are because not enough people are vaccinated. The vaccine passports haven't even been a thing in Alberta for a week and we're already talking about more restrictions on the vaccinated that will make getting the jab less attractive.

If you're unvaccinated and longing for a return to normal life and the experiences you once loved, you need to be able to see the vaccinated doing those things unfettered. They need to be shown that they're missing out on true normalcy. Not a watered down, neutered version of normalcy.

If we're truly concerned that an arena full of people who have been vaccinated and masked will be a super spreader event, then we really aren't convinced of the vaccine's effectiveness. If we aren't convinced of that ourselves then how will we convince others to get vaccinated?

This isn't me being butt-hurt about going or not going to a subpar Flames experience as you imply. We need to trust that the vaccines will allow us to live normal lives. If we aren't convinced of that, then we really are all screwed.

Right now isn't the time for your plan, though. It's a good plan, but implementing it at this point is r-worded.

At this point, we all need to cool it on the big-group things again until cases get back to a manageable level. Let's all hate the anti-vaxxers for getting us to this point, along with the government for their inaction in August when this outcome become clear and inevitable without changes.

Once cases are low, let's keep/establish harsh ostracization measures against anti-vaxxers so they basically can't participate in any non-essential activities or gatherings until the pandemic is over (whatever that'll look like) or they get inoculated.

You flapping around talking about living life like normal right now is almost unbelievably ignorant. I assume you're serious, but kinda hoping you're just messing with us because holy cow...

[curves2000]

We are going to have to have some serious discussions as a country and as a society here very soon on how best to address this hospital capacity situation and our general healthcare system.

We can argue and discuss about different restrictions, rules and wither or not fully vaxxed should be going to packed arenas etc but we also need to discuss other issues as well.

Alberta has the highest spending per capita health care system in Canada and our ICU's and hospital system is considered to be in its self, in the ICU. We are talking about canceled surgeries for tens of thousands of people in order to make room and have currently approx 1000 people in hospital with Covid and approx 220 in ICU. We are also a province of 4.5 million people.

Being of Greek decent, I follow a lot of Greek news and the level of hospital strain that happened in that country was magnitudes higher than in Alberta now and Canada as a whole. Greece has approx 2.5 times the population of Alberta and their waves #2-4 came to approx 900 people on ventilators and over 7000 people in hospital. In the news sources I read they don't break out ICU numbers specifically and their first wave was fairly low compared to others.

This was all being done in a health care system that has had over 10 years of strong austerity and cutbacks due to the financial crisis. Greece, like a lot of European countries has a hybrid system of private and public healthcare. The public sector for the most part looked after the Covid patients with the numbers stated above. Things did get pretty serious with their 3rd wave when the government was forced to "Draft" a few hundred specialists from the private sector to assist with non Covid matters in the public system such as general surgeons, cardiologists etc.

I guess what I am trying to say is that we need to discuss expanding our capacity as a whole in Canada. That will need to include training and hiring more Dr's, nurses and other specialists. It's not like it's not possible but for some reason, we just don't do that. It's not demand limited. We may need to look at new immigrants to Canada who have medical training and than get them up to speed to Canadian standards instead of having them deliver Skip the Dishes or drive taxi and Uber.

Yes our ICU and hospital system is strained like no other and the people who are working and doing this work are hero's. Covid has really shown the cracks in our system as a whole in some ways and at the end of the day, we all need to get healthier for our own wellbeing, not just Covid.

I don't think the general population is understanding just how vulnerable we are at this stage with these numbers, although high for Alberta and for Canada, are not sky high. We don't have the capacity or the ability to deal with even some minor or major events if they happened. A massive bus crash, a plane crash, an explosion, a school shooting, a terror attack or some other awful event.

Sure we have 300 total in AB ICU's and the military has been called in, we may transfer patients out and have canceled thousands of surgeries etc. Can we go into next winter with the same capacity if, what some experts believe, may come with a variant that eludes vaccines? People talk about Covid not going away but I haven't heard a lot of people talking about how we are going to fight this war as a country and as a society

[guzzy]

Originally Posted by Azure

Are vaccination numbers not increasing in Calgary every single day?

What are the expected numbers supposed to be come start of the actual season?

Yes they are but Calgary is a small percentage of the problem. Rural Alberta and the small towns. Many of them are still around that 50% vaccinated level. Edmonton and Calgary have very high percentages of double vax.

[Flames0910]

Vaccine Passport anecdote: went to a bar on 17th for dinner last night. We shared our cards but still opted to eat on the patio.

Near the end of our meal a group of three ignored the staff at the front and went straight for an empty table. Staff attempted to intercept them and the customers all had some kind of excuse "I was here yesterday, I left it at home, you know me" or "I'll just sit in the corner here". One apparently had his vax info but no ID? He claimed to have "built the place" which... ok.

Anyway, since they were already at the table it was pretty difficult for the staff to drag em out so they stayed. Even though it was outside, we finished our drinks and got out. I feel for the staff but won't be rushing back.

[CliffFletcher]

This is my understanding of health care capacity.

* Canada’s emergency health care needs routinely exceed capacity. Many hospitals are filled beyond 100 per cent capacity for more than half the days of the year. This predates covid.

* During peak flu season, this sometimes forces hospitals to cancel surgeries and postpone treatments.

* Covid is likely to become endemic. This will act as an amplifier of seasonal respiratory virus season, further increasing demands on health care resources.

* Given the above, going forward we can expect our emergency care capacity to be routinely overwhelmed to the point where surgeries are cancelled.

People who are better informed can jump in and address any incorrect facts or assumptions.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

This is my understanding of health care capacity.

* Canada’s emergency health care needs routinely exceed capacity. Many hospitals are filled beyond 100 per cent capacity for more than half the days of the year. This predates covid.

* During peak flu season, this sometimes forces hospitals to cancel surgeries and postpone treatments.

* Covid is likely to become endemic. This will act as an amplifier of seasonal respiratory virus season, further increasing demands on health care resources.

* Going forward, we can expect our emergency care capacity to be routinely overwhelmed to the point where surgeries are cancelled.

People who are better informed can jump in and address any incorrect facts or assumptions.

Which begs the question why did many health regions / provinces reduce ICU capacity and emergency rooms pre COVID? It makes no sense.

Emergency room abuse is apparently an issue, but can be alleviated with user fees.

[greyshep]

Originally Posted by Sliver

Once cases are low, let's keep/establish harsh ostracization measures against anti-vaxxers so they basically can't participate in any non-essential activities or gatherings until the pandemic is over (whatever that'll look like) or they get inoculated.

You flapping around talking about living life like normal right now is almost unbelievably ignorant. I assume you're serious, but kinda hoping you're just messing with us because holy cow...

While I agree with a lot of your sentiment, I have a really hard time believing our govt will go along with your bolded statement. Have they ever shown any interest in excluding the unvaxxed from any activities when case counts are low?

The only reason we have restrictions now is because our hospitalizations have gone out of control.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by greyshep

While I agree with a lot of your sentiment, I have a really hard time believing our govt will go along with your bolded statement. Have they ever shown any interest in excluding the unvaxxed from any activities when case counts are low?

The only reason we have restrictions now is because our hospitalizations have gone out of control.

Yeah, no doubt. This government zigs when they should zag every single time.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by guzzy

Yes they are but Calgary is a small percentage of the problem. Rural Alberta and the small towns. Many of them are still around that 50% vaccinated level. Edmonton and Calgary have very high percentages of double vax.

Yep. Regions like Medicine Hat, Taber, Edson, and so on are way out of control right now due to their 45-55% vaccine rates. It's astonishing that nobody out of Hinshaw, Kenney and Shandro have directed a single pointed statement to the rural community about it either.

Maybe harsher measures should be put into place on areas that do not have at least a 75-80% vaccine rate as a further kick in the pants. You can't continue to treat a problem like this with blanket measures forever, and I have no appetite to continue to see Edmontonians and Calgarians forced to live life under repeated, ongoing restrictions if these degenerates aren't going to step up to the plate.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Yep. Regions like Medicine Hat, Taber, Edson, and so on are way out of control right now due to their 45-55% vaccine rates. It's astonishing that nobody out of Hinshaw, Kenney and Shandro have directed a single pointed statement to the rural community about it either.

Maybe harsher measures should be put into place on areas that do not have at least a 75-80% vaccine rate as a further kick in the pants. You can't continue to treat a problem like this with blanket measures forever, and I have no appetite to continue to see Edmontonians and Calgarians forced to live life under repeated, ongoing restrictions if these degenerates aren't going to step up to the plate.

This is why the CMOH should be 100% separate from the politicians, and make binding decisions that are based on reality, to votes. Then Kenney can say "it wasn't my call, it was the CMOH. you have to do what she says."

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by Azure

Which begs the question why did many health regions / provinces reduce ICU capacity and emergency rooms pre COVID? It makes no sense.

And for Alberta,how did it go from supposedly a surge capacity of 500+ ICU beds last year (and still had around 375 ICU beds during September 2020), to now being overwhelmed at barely 300 patients total in ICU beds.



Even for the third wave, the capacity was supposedly 425 beds with triage being implemented at a 90% occupancy level:

The province has the capacity to fully staff 425 ICU beds. During the meeting it was revealed that when a high percentage of those beds are filled, a triage approach will be implemented in two phases.

If 90 per cent of the beds are filled, and a patient with a very serious medical condition only has a 20 per cent chance to live one year, they won’t get critical care. And if 95 per cent of the ICU beds are filled, the threshold is even higher.

A very ill patient with only a 50 per cent chance of surviving for one year will not qualify for a bed.

https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/physician...work-1.5410013

Given how hard health care systems in Europe and the US were hit, it's seem completely irresponsible for any of the larger provincial systems not to have plans in place for a wave with 80, 90+ COVID ICU patients/million population just in case (and would be justified for firing Kenney, Shandro, Heenshaw and Yiu). Even right now, the nearest American states like Montana, Idaho, Washington State and Oregon all have numbers as bad or worse than Alberta but they have way more ICU capacity. Oregon (with about 4.2M population) for example:

[Skaloper]

Originally Posted by accord1999

And for Alberta,how did it go from supposedly a surge capacity of 500+ ICU beds last year (and still had around 375 ICU beds during September 2020), to now being overwhelmed at barely 300 patients total in ICU beds.

The limiting factor has always been qualified staff that can support the ICU beds and the other one is what percentage of them are Covid patients vs other ICU related illnesses. My assumption is that now with elective surgeries being cancelled we truly only have enough staff that can support the ~300 vs the higher amounts where patients still need ICU but less care than someone with Covid.

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by guzzy

Yes they are but Calgary is a small percentage of the problem. Rural Alberta and the small towns. Many of them are still around that 50% vaccinated level. Edmonton and Calgary have very high percentages of double vax.

It shouldn't really matter in the context he's asking. By November 27th -- the game I'm going to -- Calgary's vaccination numbers will increase as will rural numbers now that there's a vaccine passport (and moreso when it actually has a verification mechanism that isn't "Scout's honor") so either way spread should be lower and hospitalizations/ICU should be in a better place than they are today.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by accord1999

And for Alberta,how did it go from supposedly a surge capacity of 500+ ICU beds last year (and still had around 375 ICU beds during September 2020), to now being overwhelmed at barely 300 patients total in ICU beds.

Because those beds never really existed. They were theoretical if the non-COVID healthcare system basically ground to a halt and they were using a bunch of non-ICU nurses to staff the beds. And I'm sure that can happen again, but only with triage protocols where you're basically turning people with life-threatening illnesses away.

Given how hard health care systems in Europe and the US were hit, it's seem completely irresponsible for any of the larger provincial systems not to have plans in place for a wave with 80, 90+ COVID ICU patients/million population just in case (and would be justified for firing Kenney, Shandro, Heenshaw and Yiu). Even right now, the nearest American states like Montana, Idaho, Washington State and Oregon all have numbers as bad or worse than Alberta but they have way more ICU capacity.

Idaho and some hospitals in Montana are at crisis levels and are rationing care, some hospitals in Washington are cancelling surgeries, and Oregon hospitals are cancelling surgeries, including some cancer-related ones. They do have better capacity, because of how much money they spend on healthcare, but they're still being impacted at similar hospitalization levels to what Alberta is seeing.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by accord1999

And for Alberta,how did it go from supposedly a surge capacity of 500+ ICU beds last year (and still had around 375 ICU beds during September 2020), to now being overwhelmed at barely 300 patients total in ICU beds.

Even for the third wave, the capacity was supposedly 425 beds with triage being implemented at a 90% occupancy level:



https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/physician...work-1.5410013

Given how hard health care systems in Europe and the US were hit, it's seem completely irresponsible for any of the larger provincial systems not to have plans in place for a wave with 80, 90+ COVID ICU patients/million population just in case (and would be justified for firing Kenney, Shandro, Heenshaw and Yiu). Even right now, the nearest American states like Montana, Idaho, Washington State and Oregon all have numbers as bad or worse than Alberta but they have way more ICU capacity. Oregon (with about 4.2M population) for example:

If you want to compare us tot the most expensive healthcare system in the world, you better be prepared to pay for it.

I don't have a big issue with our capacity. We have ways of managing it(restrictions, vaccines). I have an issues with our lack of living in reality. Do you really think the solution to covid is to just throw money at the hospital system until we build enoguh capacity to deal with stupid people? I'm not OK with my tax dollars going to that. I am OK with stupid people having freedoms restricted until they stop being stupid.

[Flames0910]

We're at 310 in the ICU and 350 capacity. The average is 23+ new ICU admissions per day. In the words of Verna Yui -- the only reason the healthcare system is coping is because people are dying.

Scary to think that barring more deaths or a serious air lift, hospitals could be forced to triage patients (i.e. turning them away due to lack of capacity) sometime next week.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1441160360510193666

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by Flames0910

We're at 310 in the ICU and 350 capacity. The average is 23+ new ICU admissions per day. In the words of Verna Yui -- the only reason the healthcare system is coping is because people are dying.

Scary to think that barring more deaths or a serious air lift, hospitals could be forced to triage patients (i.e. turning them away due to lack of capacity) sometime next week.

Triage is already happening - there is a ton of non-urgent (but very important) medical care that is being deferred due to COVID patients taking up all the capacity.

[Ozy_Flame]

310 out of 350?

That puts us at 1.5% away from the triage protocol.

Never in my lifetime did I think we might actually get to this.