Calgarypuck Prospect Ranking 2020 - Round 3

[TheIronMaiden]

I see a lot of people bringing up Wolfs CHL goalie of the year as a reason for him to be a top five prospect. Out of curiosity I looked up the list of last winners to see if there was a strong correlation between winning that award and becoming a starter.

2019–20 Dustin Wolf
2018–19 Ian Scott
2017–18 Carter Hart
2016–17 Michael McNiven
2015–16 Carter Hart
2014–15 Philippe Desrosiers
2013–14 Jordon Cooke
2012–13 Patrik Bartosak
2011–12 Michael Houser
2010–11 Darcy Kuemper
2009–10 Jake Allen
2008–09 Mike Murphy
2007–08 Chet Pickard
2006–07 Carey Price
2005–06 Justin Pogge
2004–05 Jeff Glass
2003–04 Cam Ward
2002–03 Adam Russo
2001–02 Ray Emery
2000–01 Dan Blackburn
1999–00 Andrew Raycroft
1998–99 Cody Rudkowsky
1997–98 Mathieu Garon
1996–97 Marc Denis
1995–96 Frederic Deschenes
1994–95 Martin Biron
1993–94 Norm Maracle
1992–93 Jocelyn Thibault
1991–92 Corey Hirsch
1990–91 Felix Potvin
1989–90 Trevor Kidd
1988–89 Stephane Fiset
1987–88 Stephane Beauregard

[SuperMatt18]

It would be interesting to see where Wolf would have landed if he was a second round pick instead of a 7th round pick.

Personally I'd still have Pelletier ahead of him because goalies are so tough to predict, but I feel like it would have been much closer.

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Why does the age matter?

For the same reason we don't take overagers dominating the CHL as seriously as 17/18 year olds doing the same. This is a 24 year old putting up solid, but not outstanding numbers in the NCAA. Worth picking up, but unless he makes a massive step as a late bloomer, he projects as a depth defenceman.

If this is a list of who's next to graduate to the NHL, then sure, he's near the top. But I care little about what depth /bubble players the Flames have in the organization. Why isn't Gawdin #1 by this measure? He's playing even better in a pro league. Answer: He's not the shiny new acquisition?

[Flames Fan, Ph.D.]

I'll be voting for Phillips for a while.

[GreenLantern2814]

I’m not the biggest Pelletier guy, I think he’s more Poirier than Mangiapane.

I suspect he’s the prospect that’s most appealing for Brad to trade for something better.

So he’s 3rd.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by cannon7

For the same reason we don't take overagers dominating the CHL as seriously as 17/18 year olds doing the same. This is a 24 year old putting up solid, but not outstanding numbers in the NCAA. Worth picking up, but unless he makes a massive step as a late bloomer, he projects as a depth defenceman.

If this is a list of who's next to graduate to the NHL, then sure, he's near the top. But I care little about what depth /bubble players the Flames have in the organization. Why isn't Gawdin #1 by this measure? He's playing even better in a pro league. Answer: He's not the shiny new acquisition?

I don't think we should be applying such universal assumptions. I certainly don't apply an assumption on overagers, or european signings or what not.
Mackey likely does have limited upside, but I think he could be a good second pairing, top 4 guy. So there's some potential there. Medium ceiling, high floor, high probability of being an NHL of some flavor. These are all the factors we are mixing in to whatever degree we think is appropriate.
But age for me is a relatively small factor in it.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It would be interesting to see where Wolf would have landed if he was a second round pick instead of a 7th round pick.

Personally I'd still have Pelletier ahead of him because goalies are so tough to predict, but I feel like it would have been much closer.

Agreed but there are reasons he went in the 7th round which is why there are still question marks. Is he going to be big enough to put up those numbers in the NHL?

He has done enough for me to be my number 4 but he is behind 3 1st round picks

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I don't think we should be applying such universal assumptions. I certainly don't apply an assumption on overagers, or european signings or what not.
Mackey likely does have limited upside, but I think he could be a good second pairing, top 4 guy. So there's some potential there. Medium ceiling, high floor, high probability of being an NHL of some flavor. These are all the factors we are mixing in to whatever degree we think is appropriate.
But age for me is a relatively small factor in it.

When you look at our blueline and see 3-4 guys on the Flames that are younger than Mackey I think age is a big factor. Maybe not for you but definitely for me.

I am not sure I will get the option but if we are in a spot where it is Mackey or Poirier I am going with Poirier because the upside is higher than a 4/5 D.

To each their own but age plays a factor for some of us more than you

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

I’m not the biggest Pelletier guy, I think he’s more Poirier than Mangiapane.

I suspect he’s the prospect that’s most appealing for Brad to trade for something better.

So he’s 3rd.

I've seen this comparison a few times (perhaps from you?) but it doesn't make any sense. Literally the only commonality between Poirier and Pelletier is that they're francophones whose last names start with P. They don't play at all the same on the ice, they don't shoot the same way, they don't have similar attitudes (reportedly)... I don't understand the comparison at all. Please elucidate your opinion for me.

Re: Mangiapane comparisons, I think they are much more valid. Smaller player who plays with a lot of jump, good along the boards, doesn't shy away from the hard areas of the ice, shoots left and has a strong shot, sees ice well, and is known for being a team contributor and a sportsman-like player. The biggest difference between them is that Mangiapane is an anglophone.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I've seen this comparison a few times (perhaps from you?) but it doesn't make any sense. Literally the only commonality between Poirier and Pelletier is that they're francophones whose last names start with P. They don't play at all the same on the ice, they don't shoot the same way, they don't have similar attitudes (reportedly)... I don't understand the comparison at all. Please elucidate your opinion for me.

I can see that comparison. Both high scoring 1st round prospects out of the Q that are left shot wingers that are known to have a little edge to their game.

[Redlan]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It would be interesting to see where Wolf would have landed if he was a second round pick instead of a 7th round pick.

Personally I'd still have Pelletier ahead of him because goalies are so tough to predict, but I feel like it would have been much closer.

The fact that he was a 7th round pick but did not let that impact his play/year and was able to distinguish himself actually raised his ranking for me. I think he not only used it as motivation but grew from the adversity, I like his mental fortitude.

Edit: I would be interested to see where Pelletier would have landed if he was a 4th round pick instead of a 1st.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

I see a lot of people bringing up Wolfs CHL goalie of the year as a reason for him to be a top five prospect. Out of curiosity I looked up the list of last winners to see if there was a strong correlation between winning that award and becoming a starter.

2019–20 Dustin Wolf
2018–19 Ian Scott
2017–18 Carter Hart
2016–17 Michael McNiven
2015–16 Carter Hart
2014–15 Philippe Desrosiers
2013–14 Jordon Cooke
2012–13 Patrik Bartosak
2011–12 Michael Houser
2010–11 Darcy Kuemper
2009–10 Jake Allen
2008–09 Mike Murphy
2007–08 Chet Pickard
2006–07 Carey Price
2005–06 Justin Pogge
2004–05 Jeff Glass
2003–04 Cam Ward
2002–03 Adam Russo
2001–02 Ray Emery
2000–01 Dan Blackburn
1999–00 Andrew Raycroft
1998–99 Cody Rudkowsky
1997–98 Mathieu Garon
1996–97 Marc Denis
1995–96 Frederic Deschenes
1994–95 Martin Biron
1993–94 Norm Maracle
1992–93 Jocelyn Thibault
1991–92 Corey Hirsch
1990–91 Felix Potvin
1989–90 Trevor Kidd
1988–89 Stephane Fiset
1987–88 Stephane Beauregard

Considering how often any prospect flames out, nevermind a goalie prospect, that's actually a ringing endorsement of Wolf's potential in the NHL.

Is that what you intended?

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Considering how often any prospect flames out, nevermind a goalie prospect, that's actually a ringing endorsement of Wolf's potential in the NHL.

Is that what you intended?

I was curious so I looked it up. I figured other people might be curious so I shared it. That was my intent.

[Lanny_McDonald]

whoops...went pelletier instead of pelletier, but....yeah pelletier.

[dammage79]

CHL goalie of the year : 16 out of 30 made the NHL in some capacity.

CHL player of the year: 19 out of 30 played NHL games. Should be 17 as Crosby and Lafreniere won it twice consecutively . And Laf hasn't even played games yet. But he will.

I should note thats just the eye test from glancing at the lists since 88-89.

Anywho, voted Wolf. He deserves to be a Flames top tier prospect.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I've seen this comparison a few times (perhaps from you?) but it doesn't make any sense. Literally the only commonality between Poirier and Pelletier is that they're francophones whose last names start with P. They don't play at all the same on the ice, they don't shoot the same way, they don't have similar attitudes (reportedly)... I don't understand the comparison at all. Please elucidate your opinion for me.

Re: Mangiapane comparisons, I think they are much more valid. Smaller player who plays with a lot of jump, good along the boards, doesn't shy away from the hard areas of the ice, shoots left and has a strong shot, sees ice well, and is known for being a team contributor and a sportsman-like player. The biggest difference between them is that Mangiapane is an anglophone.

I was torn between Poirier and Klimchuk and went with Poirier because it flowed better with ‘Mangiapane’.

All the comparison means (re: Poirier) is they’re late 1st round picks that don’t do any one thing that jumps out at me to identify them as special players.

Don’t take my Pelletier criticisms too seriously, I don’t know anything about him. But that’s kinda the point - An ‘if he was worth hearing about, I’d have heard about him’ sorta thing.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

I was torn between Poirier and Klimchuk and went with Poirier because it flowed better with ‘Mangiapane’.

All the comparison means (re: Poirier) is they’re late 1st round picks that don’t do any one thing that jumps out at me to identify them as special players.

Don’t take my Pelletier criticisms too seriously, I don’t know anything about him. But that’s kinda the point - An ‘if he was worth hearing about, I’d have heard about him’ sorta thing.

I really like the Pelletier - Mangiapane comparison. Both players for check and back check really well. It is not that skate really hard, it is that they skate really hard to the right place. I have only watched Pelletier play a handful of games. In those viewings I thought he was really effective at breaking up plays. Mangiapane has a deadlier shot, but I think Pelletier is more creative.

In terms of development it is hard not to try and make comparisons between him and Marchand. Both played for Moncton and Val-d'or, both ae around 5'10 180lb , both scored 60+ pts their first year in the Q - eventually because 80-90 pt guys. All in all I think they play a similar style of game in terms of ability, although I don't think their similar in personality.

Anyways who actually knows to expect. It isn't really fair to make these comparisons in the first place.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Redlan

Edit: I would be interested to see where Pelletier would have landed if he was a 4th round pick instead of a 1st.

The thing with Pelletier is he never would have fallen to the 4th round based on his pre-draft production at his age. Plus this argument might be a lot different if he didn't miss time due to injury last season.

Prior to his injury he had 18 goals and 31 assists for 49 points in 26 games prior to his concussion in December. At that time I think he was second to only Lafreniere in points in the QMJHL.

After the return from the break he struggled a little bit (9 points in 13 games post injury) and was finding his game when the season was suspended (24 points in 18 games)

If Pelletier doesn't get hurt then he's potentially on the WJC team and would have seen a big step in his production YoY. His pace at the time of the injury was 122 points which would have seen a nice steady production for a junior player (61 > 89 > 122), even if he was unlikely to keep up the pace of his blistering start all year it's likely he ends up around 100-110 points which still would have been good progression, especially considering he was very young for the 2019 draft.

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Button has Mackey as the 3rd best prospect behind the two first round picks (he doesn't count Valimaki).

I see that more as an indictment of the Flames drafting of d-men of late (or lack thereof) than anything.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

I was torn between Poirier and Klimchuk and went with Poirier because it flowed better with ‘Mangiapane’.

All the comparison means (re: Poirier) is they’re late 1st round picks that don’t do any one thing that jumps out at me to identify them as special players.

Don’t take my Pelletier criticisms too seriously, I don’t know anything about him. But that’s kinda the point - An ‘if he was worth hearing about, I’d have heard about him’ sorta thing.

I don't like this comparison, because in the first two years after he was drafted Poirier looked like a real sleeper. He was tracking extremely well to be an impact player in the NHL until his second pro year when substance abuse derailed his career. If Pelletier looks anything now like Poirier did in his D+1 and D+2 season, that's a really good thing.

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