American Politics Thread: The Hunt for Blue November

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

There is no point where cheating becomes unpalatable for republicans. None. They will support trump until the absolute bitter end and when he’s gone they will within .5 seconds say “I never liked him, I never supported him, I never liked his policies regardless of the video proof of me saying I love him and want him to be my daddy”

And their base will say “cool, cool. Let’s vote for our guy again!”

Ya, if they abandon Trump, they risk their voters not showing up and losing house and senate races. It's more than just the presidential vote. The cowards tied their horses to the Trump train long ago, they will get dragged down the tracks with him.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

One warning about polls right now - when one side is going through a particular bad spell, their supporters are less likely to respond to polls.

That said - its been about 4 years of bad spells so who knows how much impact that would have.

That’s true and important to keep in mind. However that should show up in the Party ID of the sample, and the Monmouth sample is D+1. You’re not wrong to advise caution though.

One other reason for caution is that Monmouth uses fairly small sample sizes which can make polls a bit “bouncier”.

[OMG!WTF!]

REGN back to pre Trump miracle level.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

New Monmouth poll this morning has Biden up 11 in Pennsylvania which gives a little more credence to the CNN poll showing Biden up 16 nationally which otherwise looks like a bit of an outlier.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-ins...oll_pa_100620/

Since the debate you have to look pretty hard to find good news for the President, but there is one Suffolk poll of Florida that has the race tied 45-45 in that state:
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suff...C2A750177E88D5

That is NOT consistent with a double digit lead nationally, but overall I think a picture is emerging of a bit of widening in the race since the debate. I kind of doubt Trump’s antics since coming down with Covid are helping him any.

Latest polls on 538:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ident-general/

I apologize about being lazy about these—I’ll try to post more updates, the problem is that from a polling standpoint (to me at least) the race has been a little... boring. Until the last week or so it seemed like the most stable presidential race in recent memory, which is consistent with the view that this cake has been baked for a while and it is a matter of turning out votes in the right places for Biden at this point.

538 also did the current polling average for Pennsylvania and Biden is up 6.6 now across vsrious polls.

Pennsylvania is as close to a must win for Trump without being one, right? He could win without it, but there's not many paths for him without it, I think?

Edit - Didn't scroll down to read your latest post and you answered my question.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1313502367615246337

[MarchHare]

It's pretty clear the 2020 race is different than the 2016 election. Voters are much more firmly in one camp or the other this time. I think there were a lot of wishy-washy voters in the "I don't really like Trump, but Hillary's emails!" camp last time. Comey's ridiculous memo a week before the election caused almost all of those people to break for Trump on voting day.

Here's 538's victory projection from 2016. You can see Clinton was almost always ahead, but she had wild fluctuations in her chance's of winning:



Now here's the same graph from 538's 2020 projection. Biden has always been the favourite with none of the rollercoaster-style fluctuations we saw in 2016:



My biggest fear is election shenanigans. The following scenario is not at all far-fetched:

1. Polls open at 7am.
2. By 7:15, there are "Army of Trump" brownshirts at polling locations in heavy Democrat-leaning areas intimidating voters and openly brandishing firearms.
3. At 9am, Fox News starts blasting footage of Antifa/Black Panthers/insert any other left-wing Boogeyman "thugs" doing what the the Army of Trump are actually doing.
4. At 10am, some right-wing nutcase, inspired by Fox's reporting, goes on a murder spree and shoots up a polling location.
5. The mass shooting is all over the news on every channel by 10:30.
6. Many Biden voters then stay home out of fear of getting murdered by Trump's fascist goon squad.

And that's not even getting into the various ways the GOP will look to discredit the results of mail-in ballots and all the other ways they will attempt to disenfranchise poor people and minorities. I can't believe in the self-described "world's greatest democracy" that this is not only a possible scenario but a probable one. How far American has fallen.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

There is no point where cheating becomes unpalatable for republicans. None. They will support trump until the absolute bitter end and when he’s gone they will within .5 seconds say “I never liked him, I never supported him, I never liked his policies regardless of the video proof of me saying I love him and want him to be my daddy”

And their base will say “cool, cool. Let’s vote for our guy again!”

It's easy enough to cheat say one state with a few thousand votes. But it's gonna take a lot for multiple states and maybe millions of votes. I guess what I'm saying is if they have to start cheating to keep Ohio and Texas it's probably easier to just let Trump lose and move on.

[nfotiu]

Most of the key states are Democratic governed, which should make cheating a lot tougher.

I'd say if Trump doesn't win PA, he has no chance. That's the closest of PA,WI, and MI. Biden doesn't necessarily need it to win, but Trump sure does.

Trump's antics are not playing particularly well to that part of the country right now. All he's doing is firing up his racist deep south voters, which he already had anyway.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by nik-

Cat people's votes shouldn't count anyway.

From what I've gathered a large amount of Trumpites are dog people. The big and dangerous dangerous like their owners.

Cats are selective and can sense unworthy humans. They're a good vetting tool if anything.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

From what I've gathered a large amount of Trumpites are dog people. The big and dangerous dangerous like their owners.

Cats are selective and can sense unworthy humans. They're a good vetting tool if anything.

I"m pretty sure when Clinton said that half of Trump's voters are the deplorables, she meant the cat people and not the racists.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

My biggest fear is election shenanigans. The following scenario is not at all far-fetched:

1. Polls open at 7am.
2. By 7:15, there are "Army of Trump" brownshirts at polling locations in heavy Democrat-leaning areas intimidating voters and openly brandishing firearms.
3. At 9am, Fox News starts blasting footage of Antifa/Black Panthers/insert any other left-wing Boogeyman "thugs" doing what the the Army of Trump are actually doing.
4. At 10am, some right-wing nutcase, inspired by Fox's reporting, goes on a murder spree and shoots up a polling location.
5. The mass shooting is all over the news on every channel by 10:30.
6. Many Biden voters then stay home out of fear of getting murdered by Trump's fascist goon squad.

And that's not even getting into the various ways the GOP will look to discredit the results of mail-in ballots and all the other ways they will attempt to disenfranchise poor people and minorities. I can't believe in the self-described "world's greatest democracy" that this is not only a possible scenario but a probable one. How far American has fallen.

Right, I think everyone needs to be paying a lot of attention to what's going on in Pennsylvania with the Republicans trying to establish an election commission with subpoena powers. Here's how I see that playing out:
1. Some Pennsylvania Trump supporters will vote twice, following Trump's instructions that he gave at Pennsylvania rallies in September. (Expect Trump to tell people who voted by mail that their votes were probably not counted and they should vote again.)
2. This results in their ballots being disqualified, giving the GOP all the excuse they need to cry shenanigans.
3. Election Commission swoops in, locks down and subpoenas everything, alleges fraud, basically brings the count to a standstill.
4. The deadline for appointing electors is reached, and with the count not completed, Pennsylvania GOP-controlled congress appoints their own slate of Trump-friendly electors. This is challenged to the supreme court, which of course finds for the GOP.

The disturbing thing about this process is that there's not really any voting margin that protects against this. Pennsyvlania could go +15 for Biden, and Trump and the GOP would simply argue that the unlikely margin of victory simply proves that there were shenanigans and justifies them awarding the EC votes to Trump.

[Swift]

Haha, I missed this one yesterday

https://twitter.com/user/status/1313145525890281475

[GirlySports]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1312154636879425536


I have no confidence in most voters' ability to follow directions to vote by mail. I think it was a mistake by the Democrats to focus on that. The focus should be on early in-person voting and providing masks for those who do it.

[Fuzz]

Wait, they require you to add your own stamp? Yay democracy.

[MissTeeks]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1313527256518725634

[FLAMESRULE]

Originally Posted by MissTeeks

https://twitter.com/user/status/1313527256518725634

Release the flotilla of canoes, it's invading time!!

[bob-loblaw]

If you haven't seen Colbert's monologue from last night, here's the link - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPKfx6y7DIQ. I lol'd a few times.

Also, one of the side effects of is 'Burning, pain and itching around your anus may happen when this drug is given in the vein too rapidly (IV). It usually happens suddenly and resolves in less than 1 minute.' Lord I hope they jammed that in Trump's IV...

Dexamethasone Side Effects

[Enoch Root]

your link is for an ad (the first link)

[Nufy]

Originally Posted by bob-loblaw

If you haven't seen Colbert's monologue from last night, here's the link - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ELp...M#action=share. I lol'd a few times.
[/URL]

Its a series of Monday.com commercials to me...

[bob-loblaw]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

your link is for an ad (the first link)

Sorry - I shared the link to the commercial before video started.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPKfx6y7DIQ

[activeStick]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1313351543446540290

Odd. Is Trump out of money? While Iowa is looking to likely go to Trump, Ohio is still very tight.