The Matthew Tkachuk contract negotiations

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Marner is likely the premier RFA on the market.

If he signs for 8 years (even with a $10MM price tag), it will effect he balance of the RFA"s from getting the high AAV with the short term.

I think Toronto has already offered Marner 8 years at $10MM, or other teams have approached him with the same offer.

He wants a term to UFA.

I think Marner wants 5x10, and we shall see when Dubas caves.

[Macho0978]

I picked 3 @ $6 mil. It was the closest option. My prediction is 3 @ $6.75.

[TheKurgan]

If he is still a RFA after a 3 year deal then I feel that would be a pretty good fit for our current contract structure. Gio and Johnny are up in 3 years so there will be some flexibility on who we can resign or trade etc.

[Oling_Roachinen]

A 3 year contract allows him to file for arbitration at the end and get a single year contract that brings him to UFA as early as possible. I don't think there's a chance the Flames offer him a 3 or 4 year contract.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

I think Marner wants 5x10, and we shall see when Dubas caves.

He won't. The Leafs will wait him out because they have Kapenen and Nylander whose numbers will be boosted by playing with a #1 C and can cover. If I am Dubas I tell him he can either sign a 7-8 year deal or he can sit until he does.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

A 3 year contract allows him to file for arbitration at the end and get a single year contract that brings him to UFA as early as possible. I don't think there's a chance the Flames offer him a 3 or 4 year contract.

Except contract negotiations are 2 way. Brad might have to give something to get something. If Tkachuk wants 9 mil on 5 or 6 year deal which some speculate some if these rfas want similar to Mathews. Maybe Brad will have to give him 3 years to gets that 6.75 cap hit. Maybe tkachuk agent takes it knowing they have leverage in 3 years.

I'm sure brad will love to dictate it all and I'm hoping 7.5 for 6 to 8 years but I'm thinking its wishful thinking

[Oling_Roachinen]

Yes the contract negotiations are two ways, but the chance of losing Tkachuk in four years is a hill that Treliving should die on avoiding. If that means a higher cap hit for five or six years, or a bridge deal for one or two, so be it. Losing a 25 year old Tkachuk to UFA is worst case scenario that far overshadows signing him to a contract with a bit more money than they would have liked.

So one or two, five to eight, are the terms that should be discussed unless Tkachuk's camp is willing to give up pretty much everything else to be a UFA at 25, and a 6.75M cap hit isn't that.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

He won't. The Leafs will wait him out because they have Kapenen and Nylander whose numbers will be boosted by playing with a #1 C and can cover. If I am Dubas I tell him he can either sign a 7-8 year deal or he can sit until he does.

Never good for an manager of people to give ultimatums, especially with special talent that isn't easily replaceable.

Especially taking a silly stance that it's 7 or 8 years or sit. What's wrong with 1 year? Or 2 years, for example.

If Dubas takes that stance, he'll have lost control of every future negotiation and will be soon replaced. You can't make players sign lifetime contracts if they don't want to.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Yes the contract negotiations are two ways, but the chance of losing Tkachuk in four years is a hill that Treliving should die on avoiding. If that means a higher cap hit for five or six years, or a bridge deal for one or two, so be it. Losing a 25 year old Tkachuk to UFA is worst case scenario that far overshadows signing him to a contract with a bit more money than they would have liked.

So one or two, five to eight, are the terms that should be discussed unless Tkachuk's camp is willing to give up pretty much everything else to be a UFA at 25, and a 6.75M cap hit isn't that.

You can say for 100% certainty that 6.75 isn't the cap hit needed to give in on a 3 year deal. What if the ask for 5 years is 9 or 6 years is 9.5? What impact does 9 for 5 have on the next 3 years? What moves are needed this off season if 9 is the number? What players have to go? 6.75 put brad in a spot to not be forced to make any moves. He can focus on making good moves not looking to dump players for less than they are worth. And this is all based on him signing 1 year arbitration deal and walking as a ufa in 3 years. Players have done it before but I'd bet he would still want long term that summer over signing 1 year deal to get slightly more the next summer

I wonder if leafs fans would take mathews right now at 3 years @ 9.5 rather than 5 at 11.6?

Considering how many rfas have yet to sign it isn't looking good to get tkachuk at great cap hit and long term. Could be 1 or the other. I like how thing look for next 3 years if he in at 6.75.

Maybe brad will get something better done as he has in past but I'm thinking 5 years or more won't be a cap hit starting at 7. Hope I'm wrong though

[Buff]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I assume you mean only benefits the team?

Yes, oops.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

3 years wouldn't take him to UFA

Thanks - I had it wrong. Then I think 3 years is a pretty solid choice.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Never good for an manager of people to give ultimatums, especially with special talent that isn't easily replaceable.

Especially taking a silly stance that it's 7 or 8 years or sit. What's wrong with 1 year? Or 2 years, for example.

If Dubas takes that stance, he'll have lost control of every future negotiation and will be soon replaced. You can't make players sign lifetime contracts if they don't want to.

There is nothing wrong with one or two years, I was responding to a post that stated Marner was insisting on a five year $10M deal so he can have his cake and eat it too. GM's have to take some kind of stand for themselves so they have some advantages too. If Marner wants $10M plus a year he has to concede UFA years or he can sit at home. Also Marner is like 21, it is sad that his career will be over at 28 or 29 seeing how you know this.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

There is nothing wrong with one or two years, I was responding to a post that stated Marner was insisting on a five year $10M deal so he can have his cake and eat it too. GM's have to take some kind of stand for themselves so they have some advantages too. If Marner wants $10M plus a year he has to concede UFA years or he can sit at home. Also Marner is like 21, it is sad that his career will be over at 28 or 29 seeing how you know this.

It easy to say sign X or sit at home. In practice, it's a different matter.

But it's poor business for Toronto to have a premium players sitting at home when you want to win the Stanley Cup.

Many players today (the premium RFA's) want to be paid what they are worth today, since they are actually playing in their prime. That's what Matthews and Aho got.

yes, they want their cake and eat it too. Who doesn't want that? And it looks like certain of the premium RFA's got that.

Marner doesn't have to concede anything if he chooses not too.

His career isn't obviously over in his late 20's, but his negotiating power changes drastically if he's negotiating an 8-year deal at that time.

Played want to negotiate the 8-year deal when they are young enough to get it unconditionally (i.e without any discount for older years in term or AAV). That's how they will maximize their lifetime income.

The fact is, Marner has more leverage. He's an exceptional talent that cannot be easily (or if all) replaced). The fans want him playing. Standing up to him (which may be the smart thing to do from a long term business strategy move) is hard when you have everyone wanting him playing. Toronto already showed they will bend for Matthews. I suggest it's unlikely they draw a line in the sand for Marner, and I think he knows it.

[Weitz]

Its sort of a double edged sword. Teams are finally starting to realize that paying players for what they done in the past is a terrible idea and they are getting handcuffed by bad contracts for old players - so they are signing less and less of them.

Players are realizing this and now they need to be paid during their prime because they aren't going to get it later.

In my mind this is how it should be. Pay guys for how they are going to play for you not how they used to play for you. This is happening in some of the other major sports too.

[VilleN]

In my opinion the Leafs biggest mistake was not Matthews, it was Nylander. I think they could have waited him out the whole season and probably got a better deal. Also, I think that may have increased their bargaining power with Matthews and Marner. Now, Marner's camp probably thinks that if Dubas didn't have the stomach to sit Nylander to get the best deal for Toronto, he probably won't have the stomach to sit Marner.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by VilleN

In my opinion the Leafs biggest mistake was not Matthews, it was Nylander. I think they could have waited him out the whole season and probably got a better deal. Also, I think that may have increased their bargaining power with Matthews and Marner. Now, Marner's camp probably thinks that if Dubas didn't have the stomach to sit Nylander to get the best deal for Toronto, he probably won't have the stomach to sit Marner.

Their big problem was signed Taveres. They take that money, sign Marner and D men and they are probably further ahead.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Their big problem was signed Taveres. They take that money, sign Marner and D men and they are probably further ahead.

Not much of a ‘problem’ when he’s the best player on that team. But it definitely changed their model.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by VilleN

In my opinion the Leafs biggest mistake was not Matthews, it was Nylander. I think they could have waited him out the whole season and probably got a better deal. Also, I think that may have increased their bargaining power with Matthews and Marner. Now, Marner's camp probably thinks that if Dubas didn't have the stomach to sit Nylander to get the best deal for Toronto, he probably won't have the stomach to sit Marner.

Was it the Leafs who budged or Nylander though? Nylander's camp was reportedly asking for 8M. We can discuss the wonky 'actual' price of his contract but with roughly 7M a year, that was a significant reduction and probably put him inline with what most were expecting that the Leafs wanted to sign him to (around 6.5M). At best they met in the middle but Nylander lost out on some cash due to missing so many games.

https://www.tsn.ca/nylander-s-camp-a...-aav-1.1186520

"And obviously the Nylander fight continues with the Toronto Maple Leafs and our information suggests that Nylander to date is not willing to come off the number of $8-plus million per year so that makes it pretty easy for Kyle Dubas and the Toronto Maple Leafs to continue their position to dig in," Dreger said Thursday on Insider Trading. "Last week, [TSN Hockey Insider Pierre LeBrun] talked about the possibility of teams calling. Teams have been calling no doubt, inquiring about Willie Nylander, is he available?

So I don't think Nylander's contract negotiation situation hurt them at all actually. It showed a willingness to let a player sit at home for an extended time.

What might hurt them is that Nylander came back and had difficulty finding form. Is Toronto willing to see that happen with Marner? Maybe not.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Their big problem was signed Taveres. They take that money, sign Marner and D men and they are probably further ahead.

Strongly disagree. You can't just "find D" and Tavares is too good to pass up on as a 'free' asset.

If they do get the defenseman that they have long coveted it will be because of assets, like Nylander or maybe even Marner, that the Tavares signing made possible to move.

I mean, even Barrie was likely a result of Tavares as it made Kadri a lot more expandable.

[jayswin]

It would be comical how bad Dubas is at signing RFA's and the fact that yet another one is likely going to be very late or even a hold out. But it's really depressing this off season as other high end RFA's, including ours are reportedly waiting for Marner to set the market.