Johnny Gaudreau: Trade or Keep?

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

There's a preponderance of evidence that Johnny won't be re-signing here. It's not 100%, but it's high, high probability. The guy wants to be out east, I know we all like Calgary because we were born here or moved from some place like Sask or Mantioba but it's just different for someone not from around here. His family, his buddies, and his lifestyle all line up better with places like Boston Philly and NY. We've honestly been incredibly lucky that he even came to play here given the backdoor route these NCAA guys can take after playing four years.

The Flames have a window set up to try and achieve what they can with this core, and that window is clearly the 2.5 years left with Gaudreau under contract as the team's most talented player. If management feels like this is not the group to win the Cup with then changes have to be made, and as the player that will fetch the most in return while also being the one player on the team that I would bet my life on not re-signing here you have to explore what you can get. A trade done right would allow the Flames to reload with an experienced-ish core of Monahan, Lindholm, Hanifin, and Tkachuk complimented with high-end and most importantly cost controlled young assets.

he can just as easily meet a nice Calgary girl and have a kid next year, and want to stay.
for all the talk about players wanting to play near home, it sure as heck doesn't seem to happen often.

you know where Johnny is going to play in 3 years? whichever city has a contending team and will pay him well, and that can very well be Calgary.

at the age he'll be, he likely won't make his decision on being closer to party with his buddies, or to sleep in his childhood room.

[bax]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Why would Gaudreau do that? In today's NHL, star players walk a team all the way to UFA and then let the bids come in. Did Tavares make it clear to the Isles that he didn't want to re-sign? Did Karlsson tell the Sens his plans? How about Hall and NJ - do you think he's told them if he plans to re-sign or not? Why would a player give up that leverage?

Like I said, Tavares played a wait and see game with the Islanders concerning coaching, the new building, roster moves, etc.

I believe Karlsson did tell the Sens he wouldn't sign yes. I think for Hall the writing is on the wall- if he doesn't want to sign before the trade deadline then move him.

Gaudreau wouldn't be giving up any leverage whatsoever- either he signs or he doesn't. If not, trade him to the highest bidder. He still gets to walk to UFA.

[Crown Royal]

As in any case, it depends on the return for Gaudreau. I am not interested in trading him for the sake of trading him, but if there is a deal that could make this team better now and in the future, I would look at it.

[Vinny01]

If for whatever reason Taylor Hall decides he wants to play in Calgary I think trading Johnny for high end futures is a good avenue to go down. In the much more likely scenario where Hall doesn’t want to sign here then I would only move Johnny if the team misses the playoffs or has another first round exit. In that case I would also want Gio moved and likely both in a hockey trade where the team is still poised to be competitive right away.

[BrennyBaller]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

If for whatever reason Taylor Hall decides he wants to play in Calgary I think trading Johnny for high end futures is a good avenue to go down. In the much more likely scenario where Hall doesn’t not want to sign here then I would only move Johnny if the team misses the playoffs or has another first round exit. In that case I would also want Gio moved and likely both in a hockey trade where the team is still poised to be competitive right away.

So Hall does want to sign here then? Double negative haha

[CroFlames]

The whole premise of the thread is flawed.

If he is indeed under-performing, why would you trade now? You don't trade from a position of weakness.

If he isn't in your long term plans, you trade him in his final year at the trade deadline.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by BrennyBaller

So Hall does want to sign here then? Double negative haha

Whoops. Edited on my end.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

The whole premise of the thread is flawed.

If he is indeed under-performing, why would you trade now? You don't trade from a position of weakness.

If he isn't in your long term plans, you trade him in his final year at the trade deadline.

Doesn’t he have a form of NTC that will kick in after July 1 as the next 2 years are the UFA years the Flames bought with the contract and now more clauses can be added. I know he has a limited NTC at some point of the deal.

If the Flames can trade him anywhere at the draft then maximize the value

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Doesn’t he have a form of NTC that will kick in after July 1 as the next 2 years are the UFA years the Flames bought with the contract and now more clauses can be added. I know he has a limited NTC at some point of the deal.

If the Flames can trade him anywhere at the draft then maximize the value

He has a modified NTC for 21-22 only. And it's only a 5 team list.

One thing about next year, though, is that he has a $3.5M signing bonus. Once that's paid he's a $6.75 cap hit but only $3.25 in actual money, with no NTC. That's when he's most attractive to another team (particular team needs aside).

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

He has a modified NTC for 21-22 only. And it's only a 5 team list.

One thing about next year, though, is that he has a $3.5M signing bonus. Once that's paid he's a $6.75 cap hit but only $3.25 in actual money, with no NTC. That's when he's most attractive to another team (particular team needs aside).

Johnny is a superstar with a sub-$7M cap hit - his actual salary is irrelevant, we're not trading him to Phoenix. He's attractive in every scenario. So much so I wonder why we're bothering to trade him.

It seems to me that when a team can't make it work with Johnny Gaudreau on their first line, that's on the team. Johnny has limitations. That's clear. But even with those limitations, he's a better player than 97% of the sport.

Work around them. Right now, Johnny is playing over a minute more per game than Tkachuk. Flip that around. Start feeding Chucky the minutes for a few weeks, and try to disguise where Johnny's going to show up.

I don't for the life of me understand why Backlund has never been given any extended time with Gaudreau either. He's nowhere near as passive as Monahan, he can actually hold onto the puck and not just force it to Johnny as soon as he's pressured, and after three years of running with Tkachuk, Backs is a proper hardened veteran NHL Centre. I can't see him avoiding a scrum and not taking up for Gaudreau.

Tkachuk-Monahan-X
Gaudreau-Backlund-Lindholm

Monahan is a damn good player. Maybe not an ideal #1C but his production and hockey sense are elite over his career, and I don't care who wants to argue about that. He and Johnny are both too timid. I think that can be managed if its spread throughout the roster, but when 2/3 of the top line has the same flaw, and that flaw is 'baby #### soft', you can't play them together and expect anything good to happen in the spring.

They really need a Kesler type #2C. 220 lbs, good for 50-70 points year in year out, who's a mean SOB. I don't know who that would be in 2019, but that's the archetype I'd be searching for.

[pepper24]

Keep. Top line player at good salary. Nearly a ppg player his entire career. Add better players to play with him, not trade him.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Johnny is a superstar with a sub-$7M cap hit - his actual salary is irrelevant, we're not trading him to Phoenix. He's attractive in every scenario. So much so I wonder why we're bothering to trade him.

It seems to me that when a team can't make it work with Johnny Gaudreau on their first line, that's on the team. Johnny has limitations. That's clear. But even with those limitations, he's a better player than 97% of the sport.

Work around them. Right now, Johnny is playing over a minute more per game than Tkachuk. Flip that around. Start feeding Chucky the minutes for a few weeks, and try to disguise where Johnny's going to show up.

I don't for the life of me understand why Backlund has never been given any extended time with Gaudreau either. He's nowhere near as passive as Monahan, he can actually hold onto the puck and not just force it to Johnny as soon as he's pressured, and after three years of running with Tkachuk, Backs is a proper hardened veteran NHL Centre. I can't see him avoiding a scrum and not taking up for Gaudreau.

Tkachuk-Monahan-X
Gaudreau-Backlund-Lindholm

Monahan is a damn good player. Maybe not an ideal #1C but his production and hockey sense are elite over his career, and I don't care who wants to argue about that. He and Johnny are both too timid. I think that can be managed if its spread throughout the roster, but when 2/3 of the top line has the same flaw, and that flaw is 'baby #### soft', you can't play them together and expect anything good to happen in the spring.

They really need a Kesler type #2C. 220 lbs, good for 50-70 points year in year out, who's a mean SOB. I don't know who that would be in 2019, but that's the archetype I'd be searching for.

I don't disagree, but owners do like to save money. Plus next year they'd get 2 years from Gaudreau so he'd be more than a rental.

I do agree about putting Backlund on a top 2 line with one of Monahan or Gaudreau. I have advocated a line of Tkachuk-Monahan-Backlund, because those first two could use the defensive help. That gives Gaudreau Lindholm as a good two way C and you can then plug in a Mangiapane or Dube to dig the puck and put the close ones in.

[Hackey]

The issue is how do you surround these guys with better players? Monahan and Backlund as your 1 and 2 likely isn't winning a cup. The Flames are really lacking depth up front and I don't see any easy way to fix that since were a cap team and have nothing in the pipe line. Maybe you trade Gio to a contender and are able to get something. Flames are in a tough spot right now and Brad is gonna have to be really creative or really lucky.

[mrdonkey]

Originally Posted by Hackey

The issue is how do you surround these guys with better players? Monahan and Backlund as your 1 and 2 likely isn't winning a cup. The Flames are really lacking depth up front and I don't see any easy way to fix that since were a cap team and have nothing in the pipe line. Maybe you trade Gio to a contender and are able to get something. Flames are in a tough spot right now and Brad is gonna have to be really creative or really lucky.

As much as people don't want to hear it, you fix it by tearing it down and starting over with a new group, after some honest to god difficult years building through the draft.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

The whole premise of the thread is flawed.

If he is indeed under-performing, why would you trade now? You don't trade from a position of weakness.

If he isn't in your long term plans, you trade him in his final year at the trade deadline.

If you’re not convinced his play will rebound you trade him now before the rest of the league finds out how ineffective he’s become. His value has not dropped significantly, he still a premium asset. That might not be true in 2 years if he continues to struggle.

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Johnny is a superstar with a sub-$7M cap hit - his actual salary is irrelevant, we're not trading him to Phoenix. He's attractive in every scenario. So much so I wonder why we're bothering to trade him.

It seems to me that when a team can't make it work with Johnny Gaudreau on their first line, that's on the team. Johnny has limitations. That's clear. But even with those limitations, he's a better player than 97% of the sport.

Work around them. Right now, Johnny is playing over a minute more per game than Tkachuk. Flip that around. Start feeding Chucky the minutes for a few weeks, and try to disguise where Johnny's going to show up.

I don't for the life of me understand why Backlund has never been given any extended time with Gaudreau either. He's nowhere near as passive as Monahan, he can actually hold onto the puck and not just force it to Johnny as soon as he's pressured, and after three years of running with Tkachuk, Backs is a proper hardened veteran NHL Centre. I can't see him avoiding a scrum and not taking up for Gaudreau.

Tkachuk-Monahan-X
Gaudreau-Backlund-Lindholm

Monahan is a damn good player. Maybe not an ideal #1C but his production and hockey sense are elite over his career, and I don't care who wants to argue about that. He and Johnny are both too timid. I think that can be managed if its spread throughout the roster, but when 2/3 of the top line has the same flaw, and that flaw is 'baby #### soft', you can't play them together and expect anything good to happen in the spring.

They really need a Kesler type #2C. 220 lbs, good for 50-70 points year in year out, who's a mean SOB. I don't know who that would be in 2019, but that's the archetype I'd be searching for.

One other point about Backlund: he’s very good at zone entries. It wouldn’t always have to be about Johnny.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

As much as people don't want to hear it, you fix it by tearing it down and starting over with a new group, after some honest to god difficult years building through the draft.

I could have sworn we just went through one. That's a hard sell to fans to go through that once again, especially with how young some of the core players still are.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

As much as people don't want to hear it, you fix it by tearing it down and starting over with a new group, after some honest to god difficult years building through the draft.

So blow it up and hope the next mix of players in 4-5 years will be better?

It has worked for the Oilers, Panthers, Jets, Jackets, Sabres, Coyotes, Devils etc who for the most part still wander the desert.

You want to buy my season tickets for those 4-5 years as well?

[mrdonkey]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

I could have sworn we just went through one. That's a hard sell to fans to go through that once again, especially with how young some of the core players still are.

We did, and what that yielded was a few 6th overall picks that became good but not great, and a 4th overall bust. The end result of that rebuild is a team that is still missing some very important components of a contender, wouldn’t you say?

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

We did, and what that yielded was a few 6th overall picks that became good but not great, and a 4th overall bust. The end result of that rebuild is a team that is still missing some very important components of a contender, wouldn’t you say?

Yup agreed, it's missing some big parts for sure. But what happens if the next round of high picks bust like Bennett? What if we lose the draft lottery and miss out on a elite player? A million things could easily go wrong and then we're at square one yet again.

At the very least, this team still has a good foundation to build upon. They are competitive and playing decent under a new coach. I just think that the idea of going through another 5 year rebuild, having just come off one, is a hard sell to not only fans but to ownership. Especially considering where the team finished the last regular season in the standings.

Obviously the best place to get elite talent is high picks in the draft. But that's not always guaranteed as we saw with our last #4 pick. To me that's what really set the rebuild back was Bennett not panning out like we had hoped. Suddenly a team with Bennett, Monahan, Backlund and Ryan down the middle looks a whole lot better then what we have now.

I think a team rebuilds when they have no choice. But the Flames do have the option to 'tinker' which IMO is a whole lot more realistic of an option. Having said that, I think the team will be a whole lot better going forward with Peters out of the way and what looks like a rejuvenated Brodie on the backend. I also think at some point Johnny is going to figure it out, which means the entire top line figures it out.