05-14-2019, 06:53 PM
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#101
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blankall
You cannot look at the dollar exchange like that. Inflation is not offset that way. The calculation is far more complex. Also that index doesn't include China, which is Endgame's biggest international contributor.
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In an ideal world we would track ticket sold worldwide. All of these inflation calculations are proxies for tickets sold. So if you are concerned about tickets sold exchange rate makes a big difference.
I adjusted Avatar’s exchange to today rather than adjusted Endgames gross so China is irrelevant in that sense.
The correct way to do it would be to take each currency value at the end of 2009 and adjust to today’s exchange rate then apply inflation to get to today’s dollars. But I’m lazy so looked for a short cut. If you look at Avatar its european grosses are where it dominated. So by checking the change in European exchange vs the American dollar index. 1.27 for the Euro to 1.24 for the dollar index I feel its close enough to say that the international box office is 20-30% higher than it would have been if it sold the same numbers of tickets in the same regions prior to accounting for inflation. The affect of inflation of 1.17 for both the worldwide and domestic totals.
So it works out close enough that without a more detailed analysis it’s fair to say that the exchange affects offset the inflation affects within the level of analysis that I’m willing to do. Or at a minimum a comparison of the adjusted worldwide values of Avatar and Endgame have significant errors which favour Avatar.
The other thing to note is that Avatar was the first film to see the 3D bump so its average ticket sale price is higher than the average ticket sale price for industry so the inflation number for Avatar skews high anyways.
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05-15-2019, 10:21 AM
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#102
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Ate 100 Treadmills
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
In an ideal world we would track ticket sold worldwide. All of these inflation calculations are proxies for tickets sold. So if you are concerned about tickets sold exchange rate makes a big difference.
I adjusted Avatar’s exchange to today rather than adjusted Endgames gross so China is irrelevant in that sense.
The correct way to do it would be to take each currency value at the end of 2009 and adjust to today’s exchange rate then apply inflation to get to today’s dollars. But I’m lazy so looked for a short cut. If you look at Avatar its european grosses are where it dominated. So by checking the change in European exchange vs the American dollar index. 1.27 for the Euro to 1.24 for the dollar index I feel its close enough to say that the international box office is 20-30% higher than it would have been if it sold the same numbers of tickets in the same regions prior to accounting for inflation. The affect of inflation of 1.17 for both the worldwide and domestic totals.
So it works out close enough that without a more detailed analysis it’s fair to say that the exchange affects offset the inflation affects within the level of analysis that I’m willing to do. Or at a minimum a comparison of the adjusted worldwide values of Avatar and Endgame have significant errors which favour Avatar.
The other thing to note is that Avatar was the first film to see the 3D bump so its average ticket sale price is higher than the average ticket sale price for industry so the inflation number for Avatar skews high anyways.
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If we're talking about tickets sold, things are way off. The price of an average ticket has gone through the roof recently, with all sorts of add-ons, Dbox, VIP, etc...
My point was that you can't just declare that inflation doesn't matter because the USD has gone up relative to the Euro.
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05-15-2019, 10:33 AM
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#103
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Franchise Player
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Does anyone track ticket sales, or just dollars? Seems the most important factor to popularity would be number of tickets, not how much it made, considering the vast global diversity in costs.
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05-15-2019, 10:50 AM
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#104
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: in your blind spot.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuzz
Does anyone track ticket sales, or just dollars? Seems the most important factor to popularity would be number of tickets, not how much it made, considering the vast global diversity in costs.
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I agree, but the counter is that there are more movies released today and they get shorter runs; there are very few re-releases anymore since they go to other outlets; there are many multiplexes today so a film can be on far more screens; and so on. It's just very tough to get a consistent metric.
But here: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/ you can see there is a record that is "inflation adjusted" that attempts to bring the disparity into line.
In general, I agree with you. Using the dollar value of tickets is an almost impossible way to compare across a time frame. Number of tickets over the fist 3 months after release (or some time frame) would be a better metric. But it won't happen so long as marketing want to be able to make everything a new record, facts are secondary.
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05-15-2019, 11:48 AM
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#105
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Ate 100 Treadmills
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Theoretically, with an expanding population and more access to international markets, we should be able to constantly hit new records in terms of total sales. Pirating plays a role in diminishing this effect. However, with the big effects movies, people still go to the cinema for the experience.
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05-15-2019, 04:22 PM
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#106
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blankall
If we're talking about tickets sold, things are way off. The price of an average ticket has gone through the roof recently, with all sorts of add-ons, Dbox, VIP, etc...
My point was that you can't just declare that inflation doesn't matter because the USD has gone up relative to the Euro.
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Box office mojo inflation adjustment uses average ticket price rather than inflation to adjust pricing. They don’t have a worldwide adjusted chart though.
I would say the corollary is also true you can’t just declare the inflation adjusted number the number we should compare against without doing the work on foreign exchange.
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05-15-2019, 08:35 PM
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#107
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First Line Centre
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That we're essentially comparing apples to oranges is why i've never put much stock in box office numbers. its just become a part of the marketing hoo-haw
It's fun to see how many bazillions of dollars a movie makes--or what I like better, how badly a movie utterly bombs--but i'd really like to see how many tickets, say, The Lion King (1994) sold vs The Lion King (2019), or Star Wars vs Force Awakens, etc.
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05-15-2019, 08:41 PM
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#108
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Franchise Player
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Today was the first day Endgame made less than infinity war domestically. So it’s going to end up as one of the worst legs for a Marvel Movie.
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05-15-2019, 08:49 PM
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#109
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
Today was the first day Endgame made less than infinity war domestically. So it’s going to end up as one of the worst legs for a Marvel Movie.
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Not surprising, which isn’t a knock on the movie’s popularity. It was just a movie that absolutely screamed to be seen as early as possible.
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05-16-2019, 10:23 AM
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#110
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Ate 100 Treadmills
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
Today was the first day Endgame made less than infinity war domestically. So it’s going to end up as one of the worst legs for a Marvel Movie.
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The "Friday" for Endgame, wasn't really a Friday. It was more of a Wed-Fri, for which most people pre-bought tickets. If you look at it that way, it takes some of the sting off the steep drop offs.
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05-28-2019, 10:05 PM
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#113
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Franchise Player
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This all seems spot on. I'm guessing it will end up about $40M short of Avatar unless Disney gives it a marketing push before the end of summer. Which it just might for the sake of being able to say it owns the highest grossing movie of all time.
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05-28-2019, 10:33 PM
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#114
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Income Tax Central
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Goddamn Avatar sucked. At least Endgame was entertaining.
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05-28-2019, 10:42 PM
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#115
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Calgary, Alberta
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I'm going to go see Endgame again just so can feel like I did my part to knock Avatar down a notch. Avatar is just a bad movie!
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05-28-2019, 10:53 PM
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#116
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Income Tax Central
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draug
I'm going to go see Endgame again just so can feel like I did my part to knock Avatar down a notch. Avatar is just a bad movie!
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You're doing great work! I applaud you!
God that movie sucked.
__________________
The Beatings Shall Continue Until Morale Improves!
This Post Has Been Distilled for the Eradication of Seemingly Incurable Sadness.
If you are flammable and have legs, you are never blocking a Fire Exit. - Mitch Hedberg
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05-28-2019, 11:00 PM
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#117
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finger Cookin
This all seems spot on. I'm guessing it will end up about $40M short of Avatar unless Disney gives it a marketing push before the end of summer. Which it just might for the sake of being able to say it owns the highest grossing movie of all time.
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Since they just bought Fox, they already do own it.
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05-28-2019, 11:21 PM
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#118
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draug
I'm going to go see Endgame again just so can feel like I did my part to knock Avatar down a notch. Avatar is just a bad movie!
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Only 9,999,999 more times to go.
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05-29-2019, 11:05 AM
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#119
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finger Cookin
This all seems spot on. I'm guessing it will end up about $40M short of Avatar unless Disney gives it a marketing push before the end of summer. Which it just might for the sake of being able to say it owns the highest grossing movie of all time.
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I think it will be closer than 40M one way or another.
Domestically, Infinity War still brought in over 50M from this point forward (Day 32 and beyond). Sure, which movies are out and the frontloaded viewership of Endgame will make a difference but I think another ballpark 50M from Endgame domestically is a reasonable approach.
That places it within 51M from Avatar without any overseas revenues. With overseas revenues, it's going to be close.
I think it passes Avatar by maybe 10M or so. It will be slow, but I think it passes it.
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06-02-2019, 05:40 PM
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#120
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Franchise Player
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Godzilla with a rather pedestrian debut, actually beat by Aladdin on Saturday and Sunday.
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