Ongoing thread for Neal/Lucic discussion

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

Being “all you could get” is not an excuse. It’s a reductive approach to evaluating trades, because obviously you take the best of what’s offered to you. BUT, part of the job of being GM is to negotiate with 30 other people trying to rip you off to benefit themselves. Again, I don’t lay this entirely at the feet of Treliving. I think Edwards is to blame here for tying his hands. It’s another “Ken King was on a plane” situation that has negatively impacted hockey operations, and that doesn’t sit well with me.

“It was the best offer available” doesn’t stop any of the Iginla, Bouwmeester, Regehr, and Phaneuf trades from being viewed as bad. They were bad when they happened, and they were bad with the power of hindsight.

The relative risk/reward balance favours the Oilers heavily. And rightly or not it will be seen as something to be held against Treliving when the time comes to evaluate whether he is the person to put together a winning team.

The Flames are allowed to spend to the cap every year. The owners aren't tying his hands. They're allowed to say not to a eight year buy out.

I'm sure Treliving talked to all 30 teams, he has that reputation.

His option wasn't to get better. It was to take the only deal he had or not. Those are the options.

The evaluation of Treliving in this case isn't this trade, it's signing Neal in the first place.

I don't see the Oilers heavily advantaged in risk reward. Neal does one thing; score goals. The age curve says he is less likely to do that through years 2-5 of this deal as he moves into his mid 30s. From what we saw last year he may never get back to those levels. He can't play any other role. His ceiling is higher in the short term, but his floor is much much lower.

[Matt Reeeeead]

The thought that "this must have been the best deal out there" is definitely open to interpretation.

Tree made the best deal, in his opinion. He may have had two or three options for all we know, and it comes down to player evaluation. Just because this was the decision does not mean it was the "best deal out there".

[mrdonkey]

Originally Posted by Bingo

The Flames are allowed to spend to the cap every year. The owners aren't tying his hands. They're allowed to say not to a eight year buy out.



I'm sure Treliving talked to all 30 teams, he has that reputation.



His option wasn't to get better. It was to take the only deal he had or not. Those are the options.



The evaluation of Treliving in this case isn't this trade, it's signing Neal in the first place.



I don't see the Oilers heavily advantaged in risk reward. Neal does one thing; score goals. The age curve says he is less likely to do that through years 2-5 of this deal as he moves into his mid 30s. From what we saw last year he may never get back to those levels. He can't play any other role. His ceiling is higher in the short term, but his floor is much much lower.

I guess we’ll just have to agree to disagree about the floor being that much lower. You seem to value Lucic as a player far more heavily than I do. I don’t base my valuations on advanced stats or number tracking the way you do, I base them on my limited viewings, and the evaluations of the fan base who watched him most - and in this case Oilers fans have consistently labelled him as a guy who would probably struggle to keep up in the AHL. Which I would largely agree with based on what I’ve seen of him in Edmonton rags.

Could Treliving have done better in this negotiation? I think he could’ve, had he waited out the clock. The worst case is you miss the boat, waive Neal or tell him to stay home, replace him with a guy from the farm, and you’re really no further ahead. But I think this is unlikely as Holland was also extremely motivated to make a deal, and had more to gain in doing so. He may have been willing to add proper value to make it happen.

Perhaps the core of our disagreement here is whether or not you believe Lucic has anything to contribute. I don’t. I think he’s a slow, inconsequential tough guy who will primarily only deal with other tough guys for show, and he will only get worse with time.

[Barca]

I don't know if this has been reported, but Moj from tsn1040 (Van Radio) who has connections with the Lucic family said a deal for Eriksson/Lucic was gonna happen but the Canucks ended backing out last minute and the Oilers then circled back to Calgary and got the deal done.

I'm just glad Benning came to his senses cause a conditional 3rd is not a good enough sweetener.

[Heavy Jack]

Lol whatever Barca

Part of the sweetener was not paying a 3 mill bonus and 12.5 percent retention for the duration of the contract but Oilers/Nucks fans continue to ignore that fact.

[Barca]

Originally Posted by Heavy Jack

Lol whatever Barca

Part of the sweetener was not paying a 3 mill bonus and 12.5 percent retention for the duration of the contract but Oilers/Nucks fans continue to ignore that fact.

https://www.reddit.com/r/canucks/com...n_lucic_trade/

i'm just saying the sweetener should've been sweeter that's all lol

Canuck fans would be calling for JB's head if all we got was a conditional.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Barca

I don't know if this has been reported, but Moj from tsn1040 (Van Radio) who has connections with the Lucic family said a deal for Eriksson/Lucic was gonna happen but the Canucks ended backing out last minute and the Oilers then circled back to Calgary and got the deal done.

I'm just glad Benning came to his senses cause a conditional 3rd is not a good enough sweetener.

Yeah, because paying a 36 year old $6M per is a great thing. Almost as good as paying $3M to have Luongo suntanning in Fla.

Looking forward to signing Goldobin and Boeser for $5M between them?

[MikePatton]

Originally Posted by Heavy Jack

Lol whatever Barca

It's self-serving and humble brag-y but it's a fair post, I think.

As for my opinion RE: the trade...

I think Lucic doesn't undo the massive misfire that the Neal deal was - but it does take the sting off ever so slightly. He seems like a team guy. That's a positive.

[AC]

I'd rather have Lucic scoring ~5 goals and throwing 250 hits than Neal having twice the season he had last year and scoring ~15 and bringing absolutely nothing else to the team.

[Heavy Jack]

Originally Posted by MikePatton

It's self-serving and humble brag-y but it's a fair post, I think.

As for my opinion RE: the trade...

I think Lucic doesn't undo the massive misfire that the Neal deal was - but it does take the sting off ever so slightly. He seems like a team guy. That's a positive.

For the reasons GioforPM layed out I don’t think Barca should be gloating about Benning ‘coming to his senses’ ; how’s that Juolevi over Tkachuk pick working out for Benning Barca?

How about let the actual results of the trade speak for itself before casting stones especially when your franchise has been a train wreck for half a decade.

Lol 3 mill for Luongo retiring early ... on another team no less.

[Barca]

Wow i didn't think my comment would trigger these responses.

Canuck fans absolutely hate Lucic, all i'm saying is, if JB made that deal for that return he would be run out of town, hence the "coming to his senses" comment...

[Barca]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Yeah, because paying a 36 year old $6M per is a great thing. Almost as good as paying $3M to have Luongo suntanning in Fla.

Looking forward to signing Goldobin and Boeser for $5M between them?

I don't get the concern about Boeser? he will be signed.

Goldy on the other hand has no long term future with the team. So who cares?

[Heavy Jack]

Treliving made the trade and is still in town last I checked; not meaning to be prickly just think some of the rival fans and writers have gone a little overboard on how ‘bad’ this trade is for Calgary. 750 k relief on Lucic’s contract and a 500 k annual net gain isn’t nothing yet it’s rarely mentioned by the people who are championing this trade as a win for Edmonton before they even see results. Neal was hot garbage last year and isn’t getting younger. Sorry Barca if I had a bit of bite there just want the 12.5 percent retention to be recognized a bit more.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Barca

I don't get the concern about Boeser? he will be signed.

Goldy on the other hand has no long term future with the team. So who cares?

You can at best bridge Boeser with the cap room left.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

I'm with Heavy Jack. A conditional third isn't much, but the salary retention is decent, and worth something. Spending $5.25M on a useless player is better than $6.5M on a useless player. If (and I know this is an assumption) Flames ownership would not allow a buy out, the buy-out contract of Lucic is immaterial.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Barca

I don't get the concern about Boeser? he will be signed.

Goldy on the other hand has no long term future with the team. So who cares?

You really don't get it? Let me help you ...

$5,058,461.

[Heavy Jack]

Right?? And I’m not so sure I’d even Buy Neal out at this point, 6 years of 1.9 cap penalty is brutal; Edmonton is taking a major gamble for 1.25 mill more annually and are banking on a slow-to-begin-with Neal finding his sea legs again and being able to keep up with McDavid or Draisaitl. What happens when/if he is removed from playing with those players because he isn’t able to keep up?? Does he pout and mail it in again like he painfully did last year? Does he force a brutal 6 year buyout penalty?? Good riddance to him.

[goflamesgo18]

Oilers paid Lucic 9.67M per season for 3 seasons in real money 👍

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

I guess we’ll just have to agree to disagree about the floor being that much lower. You seem to value Lucic as a player far more heavily than I do. I don’t base my valuations on advanced stats or number tracking the way you do, I base them on my limited viewings, and the evaluations of the fan base who watched him most - and in this case Oilers fans have consistently labelled him as a guy who would probably struggle to keep up in the AHL. Which I would largely agree with based on what I’ve seen of him in Edmonton rags.

I think this is probably your problem here. Advanced metrics are not perfect, but they sure do help to cut through the noise that is created from prejudiced and frequently out of context game-observation. But more to the point, these are the same Oilers fans who were convinced that there were seven Giordanos in their system, that Ty Rattie was a bona fide 30-goal scorer, and that Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larson are Norris calibre top-pair defensemen. This is not exactly what I would consider the best source of information.

...Perhaps the core of our disagreement here is whether or not you believe Lucic has anything to contribute. I don’t. I think he’s a slow, inconsequential tough guy who will primarily only deal with other tough guys for show, and he will only get worse with time.

And this is likely because you 1) have (by your own admission) not watched enough of Milan Lucic from which to make an educated assessment; 2) are basing your opinion on cynical and jaded complaints from possibly the worst hockey fans in the country; 3) have not bothered to consider—as near as I can tell—the tremendous impact that toiling away for three years in the purgatory of the worst forward group in the NHL can have on a player's own performance. The fact alone that Lucic's situation has now suddenly VERY dramatically improved would strongly suggest that he is not the same player that was floundering with an AHL lineup in Edmonton. At worst, he is no better than Neal, and the Flames are still a top-five team.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I think this is probably your problem here. Advanced metrics are not perfect, but they sure do help to cut through the noise that is created from prejudiced and frequently out of context game-observation. But more to the point, these are the same Oilers fans who were convinced that there were seven Giordanos in their system, that Ty Rattie was a bona fide 30-goal scorer, and that Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larson are Norris calibre top-pair defensemen. This is not exactly what I would consider the best source of information.


And this is likely because you 1) have (by your own admission) not watched enough of Milan Lucic from which to make an educated assessment; 2) are basing your opinion on cynical and jaded complaints from possibly the worst hockey fans in the country; 3) have not bothered to consider—as near as I can tell—the tremendous impact that toiling away for three years in the purgatory of the worst forward group in the NHL can have on a player's own performance. The fact alone that Lucic's situation has now suddenly VERY dramatically improved would strongly suggest that he is not the same player that was floundering with an AHL lineup in Edmonton. At worst, he is no better than Neal, and the Flames are still a top-five team.

Sometimes individual players on bad teams get criticized when they shouldn't

Take the flames 2 years ago. Team couldn't score if johnny didn't score. Guys like bennett backlund frolik ferland Hathaway jankowski took heat because we couldn't win with backlund as a 2nd line center or we have too many plugs like hathaway on our team or Bennett needs to step up this team needs goals for someone other than first line

Insert lindholm and growth from tkachuk. Roles from the rest are in line now because we added 2 guys that can put puck in net. Pressure off the rest. These guys didn't get better they just were allowed to play their game

Chemistry factors in too. Lucic was in amongst many big slow physical forwards. Flames aren't built like that.