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Old 10-18-2018, 10:24 AM   #41
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Not sure I'm pointing to stats for vindication.

It was a long debate on this site with many pointing to the lack of clarity around certain stats as an issue in getting to an answer. A recent change to those stats bring clarity.

Where am I suggesting Gulutzan shouldn't have been fired?

But attacking the stats or suggesting they are noise is silly.
Why?

They told a story and the truth was very, very different.

The statistics were vastly different from the reality. Why is calling that out 'silly?'
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Old 10-18-2018, 10:30 AM   #42
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When I look back on the Flames last year, I feel like I was gaslighted. By the end of the year, I had a count of around a dozen games where I thought the Flames were noticeably better than the opposition, but didn't win.

The Colorado game from this year was a great example of this. The Flames dominated the 2nd and 3rd, and very easily could have lost that game. Losing that game would have fit right in with the 2017-2018 season.

I still had my issues with the coaching, powerplay, Brouwer, Stajan, etc... last year but I think they deserved more than 84 points.
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Old 10-18-2018, 10:31 AM   #43
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I mean when the data doesn't correlate to the results over a season, who cares if it's "right" or "wrong" because it's clearly not important.

These stats are quickly becoming something for fans to clutch to to make themselves feel better because their team is "really not as bad as the standings show". In the end, it's just the equivalent of a bottle of whiskey when you break up with your girlfriend. Makes you feel better, but it's not doing anything real for you.
Whatever floats your boat.

GMs and team executives need to make decisions on personnel. Sometimes a team is smart to take a bad season and not over react to it if other information suggests they are better or closer than the standings would suggest.

We certainly saw that in Winnipeg two off seasons ago.

Treliving made lots of changes, so clearly the underlying data wasn't enough for him. I'm glad he did a pretty good job.

But that doesn't mean the data is flawed. It is what it is. The Flames put themselves in the right spot often and didn't score. Treliving decided they didn't have the skill to finish or he wouldn't have reworked his forward roster.

But the perimeter team suggestions aren't really holding water any more.
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Old 10-18-2018, 10:32 AM   #44
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Why?

They told a story and the truth was very, very different.

The statistics were vastly different from the reality. Why is calling that out 'silly?'
A person can survive a plane crash, but that doesn't mean the statistics that suggest crashing in a plane isn't a good idea is noise.
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Old 10-18-2018, 10:33 AM   #45
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A person can survive a plane crash, but that doesn't mean the statistics that suggest crashing in a plane isn't a good idea is noise.


I dont even know what to say about that.

Although comparing Glen Gulutzan's tenure as the Flames's Head Coach as a 'Plane Crash' is pretty apt.
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Old 10-18-2018, 10:34 AM   #46
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I feel like train wreck would be a better choice.
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Looks like you'll need one long before I will. May I suggest deflection king?
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Old 10-18-2018, 10:35 AM   #47
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I feel like train wreck would be a better choice.
Hes coaching the Oilers now. Give it time.
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Old 10-18-2018, 10:36 AM   #48
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A person can survive a plane crash, but that doesn't mean the statistics that suggest crashing in a plane isn't a good idea is noise.
Yeah, that's kind of our point. Except these advanced stats that keep getting trotted out are the suggestion that it's ok to get in a plane crash.
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Old 10-18-2018, 10:36 AM   #49
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But the perimeter team suggestions aren't really holding water any more.
I think it still holds water and it's what we saw most of last year. Take a look at this season preview of the Flames on The Hockey News.

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Under deposed coach Glen Gulutzan, the Flames lacked identity. They weren’t a big or mean team, they didn’t play with speed or intensity, and they lacked discipline and fortitude. Sure, Calgary became a “possession” powerhouse and directed a lot of shots at the opposition’s net, but its impressive Corsi rating even had stats geeks wincing. That’s because the Flames set a post-lockout high of 1,232 missed shots in one season. That’s more than 15 per game. If the Flames did have an identity, it’s that they were a perimeter team.
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Old 10-18-2018, 10:58 AM   #50
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A person can survive a plane crash, but that doesn't mean the statistics that suggest crashing in a plane isn't a good idea is noise.
Also, thats not an answer. Thats a deflection.

The statistics were wrong in every way that matters. So what good are they?

It seems 'silly' to me to give weight to statistics that are clearly erroneous.
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Old 10-18-2018, 10:59 AM   #51
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I think it still holds water and it's what we saw most of last year. Take a look at this season preview of the Flames on The Hockey News.
One throwaway sentence with no backing from a single article doesn't really prove anything. The Flames had a lower-than-average fraction of their shots from the perimeter last year, which suggests they were the opposite of a perimeter team.

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Yeah, that's kind of our point. Except these advanced stats that keep getting trotted out are the suggestion that it's ok to get in a plane crash.
That's a blatant misrepresentation of Bingo's point

Generally, people who are in plane crashes die or are severely injured. Sometimes, people walk away without a scratch, but that doesn't mean that the statistics around plane crashes are useless.
Generally, teams that out-corsi their opponents are successful. Sometimes, teams with strong corsi struggle, but that doesn't mean the correlation between corsi and winning is meaningless.
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Old 10-18-2018, 11:03 AM   #52
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Also, thats not an answer. Thats a deflection.

The statistics were wrong in every way that matters. So what good are they?

It seems 'silly' to me to give weight to statistics that are clearly erroneous.
A person walking away from a plane crash could say "the statistics around plane crashes were wrong in every way that matters because I didn't die. So what good are they?"

There's a whole lot of room between "clearly erroneous" and "100% infallible," which seems to be the standard that stats are being held to.
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Old 10-18-2018, 11:05 AM   #53
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A person walking away from a plane crash could say "the statistics around plane crashes were wrong in every way that matters because I didn't die. So what good are they?"

There's a whole lot of room between "clearly erroneous" and "100% infallible," which seems to be the standard that stats are being held to.
While the other 350+ are dead?

Which statistic is really important?
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Old 10-18-2018, 11:09 AM   #54
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That's a blatant misrepresentation of Bingo's point

Generally, people who are in plane crashes die or are severely injured. Sometimes, people walk away without a scratch, but that doesn't mean that the statistics around plane crashes are useless.
Generally, teams that out-corsi their opponents are successful. Sometimes, teams with strong corsi struggle, but that doesn't mean the correlation between corsi and winning is meaningless.
The further out we get the further it actually does appear meaningless. All it takes is a few Eakins Oilers or Gulutzan Flames playing for Corsi and possession to render it irrelevant.

And even if you take corsi as relevant, it was pretty clear early on that it wasn't to us. So why are we still pretending that it's valuable information to last years Flames?

This stuff is all so boring. Advanced stats are fine as an addition, but when we're consistently being told that the results shouldn't be what they are because of them, and the results continue being what they are for multiple seasons, they really are just noise and they've jumped the shark.
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Old 10-18-2018, 11:09 AM   #55
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I mean when the data doesn't correlate to the results over a season, who cares if it's "right" or "wrong" because it's clearly not important.

These stats are quickly becoming something for fans to clutch to to make themselves feel better because their team is "really not as bad as the standings show". In the end, it's just the equivalent of a bottle of whiskey when you break up with your girlfriend. Makes you feel better, but it's not doing anything real for you.
Don't besmirch the name of a good ol' fashioned whisky binge by comparing it to this dumb, nerd stuff.
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Old 10-18-2018, 11:14 AM   #56
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Don't besmirch the name of a good ol' fashioned whisky binge by comparing it to this dumb, nerd stuff.
real binges are built on bourbon and cocaine.
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Old 10-18-2018, 11:16 AM   #57
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While the other 350+ are dead?

Which statistic is really important?
That's my point exactly. Plane crashes are dangerous, even if sometimes someone can survive. Outshooting your opponent is good, even if sometimes a team can outshoot their opponent and lose.
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Old 10-18-2018, 11:20 AM   #58
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That's my point exactly. Plane crashes are dangerous, even if sometimes someone can survive. Outshooting your opponent is good, even if sometimes a team can outshoot their opponent and lose.
But if you're consistently doing something that says you should be winning and you're not, it's time to re-evaluate the value of that stat.
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Old 10-18-2018, 11:21 AM   #59
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Yeah, that's kind of our point. Except these advanced stats that keep getting trotted out are the suggestion that it's ok to get in a plane crash.
I see it as some see the result as the only thing that matters (standings / plane crash survival). Whereas others may want to look a little deeper into the how and why.

So no I don't see it as your point at all.
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Old 10-18-2018, 11:22 AM   #60
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I think it still holds water and it's what we saw most of last year. Take a look at this season preview of the Flames on The Hockey News.
I wouldn't suggest an Eastern base publication would be all that in tune with what is actually going on in Calgary. If anything that just proves my point of a shallow look at a team that you don't see very often.
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