12-03-2017, 07:09 PM
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#2
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Franchise Player
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Too early for these stats...you really think the knights are 72% for the playoffs? I don't
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GFG
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12-03-2017, 07:11 PM
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#3
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Near Fish Creek
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The playoff Snake holds all answers!
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12-03-2017, 07:36 PM
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#5
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Powerplay Quarterback
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Huntingwhale
We have a 50% chance. We either make it, or we don't.
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You have a 50% chance to win the lottery. You either win it or u dont
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12-03-2017, 07:53 PM
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#6
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Canada
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Flames 38.0% > Oilers 8.0%
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12-03-2017, 09:12 PM
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#7
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
Too early for these stats...you really think the knights are 72% for the playoffs? I don't
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The stats assume (weighted) that teams are as good as their play indicates. So the validity of that model is how well the current play predicts their future play. I think they use Goal Differential in the model rather than just record.
So like most statistical tools it's a starting point. Do the Flames have about a 38% chance of making the playoffs? That seems reasonable. Do the knights make it 3/4 times probably not but it's not lower than 50/50. Really shows how early wins and banking those points pays off.
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12-03-2017, 09:13 PM
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#8
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CP's Fraser Crane
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flamesforcup
You have a 50% chance to win the lottery. You either win it or u dont
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I’m buying a ticket!
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12-03-2017, 10:35 PM
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#9
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stang
I’m buying a ticket!
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Yiu buy one and I'll buy one. One of us is guaranteed to win and we split it.
It's math.
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12-04-2017, 07:53 AM
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#10
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MoneyGuy
Yiu buy one and I'll buy one. One of us is guaranteed to win and we split it.
It's math.
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Actually not quite. If you each have a 50% chance of winning, the odds of one of you winning is actually 75%. The odds of both of you winning is 25%.
I'll also buy one, so the odds of one of us winning increase to
Now if I also but one, the odds of one of us wining goes up to 87.%, so we can split is 3 ways.
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12-04-2017, 08:18 AM
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#11
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Powerplay Quarterback
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stang
I’m buying a ticket!
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pffft, typical Oiler fan getting excited about the lottery in December...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HotHotHeat
THIS is why people make fun of Edmonton. When will this stupid city figure it out? They continue to kick their own ass every day, it's impossible not to make fun of them.
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12-04-2017, 08:24 AM
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#12
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Sector 7-G
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If the Flames can turn around their garbage D. They only need to go 30-20-7 to get to 96 points. That should be easy for this club to do if they play a full team game.
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12-04-2017, 08:26 AM
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#13
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Lifetime Suspension
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Otto-matic
If the Flames can turn around their garbage D. They only need to go 30-20-7 to get to 96 points. That should be easy for this club to do if they play a full team game.
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I agree, considering the Wild I think made it with 86 points. They will turn it around. You have to think that even though they didn't get up to play against the oilers that it had to be some kind of reality check. ugh, what a gross game.
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12-04-2017, 08:30 AM
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#14
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Sector 7-G
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Insane_Flame
I agree, considering the Wild I think made it with 86 points. They will turn it around. You have to think that even though they didn't get up to play against the oilers that it had to be some kind of reality check. ugh, what a gross game.
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Hate to say it but tonight is a huge game to see where the team is mentally.
If they come out flat and full of "nervous energy" I personally would take a long look at GG if I was Treliving.
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12-04-2017, 08:49 AM
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#15
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CP's Fraser Crane
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Cobra
Actually not quite. If you each have a 50% chance of winning, the odds of one of you winning is actually 75%. The odds of both of you winning is 25%.
I'll also buy one, so the odds of one of us winning increase to
Now if I also but one, the odds of one of us wining goes up to 87.%, so we can split is 3 ways.
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The three of us are going to be rich!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sutter_in_law
pffft, typical Oiler fan getting excited about the lottery in December...
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Haha that was a good one!
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12-04-2017, 09:05 AM
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#16
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
The stats assume (weighted) that teams are as good as their play indicates. So the validity of that model is how well the current play predicts their future play. I think they use Goal Differential in the model rather than just record.
So like most statistical tools it's a starting point. Do the Flames have about a 38% chance of making the playoffs? That seems reasonable. Do the knights make it 3/4 times probably not but it's not lower than 50/50. Really shows how early wins and banking those points pays off.
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Except Vegas has had the leagues easiest schedule...billion home games and a steady diet of the Yotes
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GFG
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12-04-2017, 09:25 AM
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#17
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Lifetime Suspension
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Otto-matic
Hate to say it but tonight is a huge game to see where the team is mentally.
If they come out flat and full of "nervous energy" I personally would take a long look at GG if I was Treliving.
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I agree with GG. Not sure much Tre, I think he has done what can be expected of him. But GG not getting the team prepared to play from the get go almost every game needs to change. I don't even care if the product is a little boring if it is executed properly. I care about W's!
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12-04-2017, 12:47 PM
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#18
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First Line Centre
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We could track a few different sources.
Hockey Reference (as you mentioned) has them at 36%
Corsica Hockey has them at 57%
Sports Club Stats (Weighted) has them at 40%
Hockey Viz has them at 55%
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"I think the eye test is still good, but analytics can sure give you confirmation: what you see...is that what you really believe?"
Scotty Bowman, 0 NHL games played
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12-04-2017, 12:49 PM
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#19
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Sylvan Lake
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brick
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I'll take it over the Oilers' 7.6% chance.
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Captain James P. DeCOSTE, CD, 18 Sep 1993
Corporal Jean-Marc H. BECHARD, 6 Aug 1993
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12-04-2017, 12:51 PM
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#20
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Your Mother's Place.
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Seems high.
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Would HAVE, Could HAVE, Should HAVE = correct
Would of, could of, should of = you are an illiterate moron.
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