Strength of Schedule Update

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Except the Flames have had the hardest schedule so far and thus have the easiest remaining

not average, easiest remaining of 32 teams

Look at their December schedule and tell me if you think they will likely only be 2 points better than November.

Flames are 1 game above .500 and every sportsbook has them in the playoffs with better odds than teams well ahead of them currently...why is that?

Flames have 17 games left against Anaheim, SJ, Phoenix, Chicago, Columbus...just off the top of my head

If you look, the next time the Flames have a run of games against high end teams it's Feb 23 to Mar 2 where the play 4 in a row against Vegas, Colorado, Boston and Toronto. Only 1 other time before Feb 23 do they play even 2 high end teams in a row. It's always 1 good team followed by 2 games against average or bad teams. That is how hard the schedule has been so far.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I still don't think the strength of schedule has much to do with how poorly they have played. Even last night they didn't look that great and benefitted from a team that played the night before with a slumping goaltender. I don't foresee an easier schedule making a big difference as long as they continue to play the type of hockey they have been playing. IMO it's more Flames issues than schedule or strength of opponents. Lots of players not playing to their previous levels from goaltending out.

Maybe in the second period. But they were definitely the better team.

[Goriders]

Strength of schedule aside. You have to be able to beat anyone to win the cup. So although it may explain some things. Does it really matter if your goal is to be the best?

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Strength of schedule aside. You have to be able to beat anyone to win the cup. So although it may explain some things. Does it really matter if your goal is to be the best?

Yes, because hockey is a sport where the razor thin margins between the good and bad teams, along with incontrollable elements that decide games mean the "best" team will never win every game. But they should win more often over an extended sample size.

So strength of schedule should significantly influence your win %, even if you are the best or want to be the best.

[Burning Beard]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Strength of schedule aside. You have to be able to beat anyone to win the cup. So although it may explain some things. Does it really matter if your goal is to be the best?

The team has had huge turnover. Learning chemistry and systems while playing only the best would be tricky. I think playing some lower tier teams and gaining confidence and chemistry might be just what the doctor ordered for this team to get rolling.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Maybe in the second period. But they were definitely the better team.

Strength of schedule doesn't matter if they keep playing like this as they had parts of the game where they didn't play well and they played a team on a back to back with a guy like Barkov.

Tired injured team who is mid pack in the standings - result win 6 to 2

Play poorly against a top team in the NHL do you win 6 to 2?

Strength of schedule somehow does not matter?

[Macho0978]

People also put way too much stock into a bad period. It's actually very common that teams get up 3 to 0 and get out played for that point on. Good teams just don't blow the game as often as bad teams do.

There are 8 teams in the NHL that are below 50% in shot attempt % when trailing in a game.

Only 9 teams above 50% when winning.

Only 2 teams that have a better percent when winning than they do when trailing.

Teams that are losing consistently outshoot teams that are winning. I imagine it gets worse when you are up 3 or more.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Except the Flames have had the hardest schedule so far and thus have the easiest remaining

not average, easiest remaining of 32 teams

Look at their December schedule and tell me if you think they will likely only be 2 points better than November.

Flames are 1 game above .500 and every sportsbook has them in the playoffs with better odds than teams well ahead of them currently...why is that?

Flames have 17 games left against Anaheim, SJ, Phoenix, Chicago, Columbus...just off the top of my head

Do the math and show how it is more than a two point difference.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Do the math and show how it is more than a two point difference.

Every sportsbook has done the math...go look at the odds. Look at the odds on a game to game basis while you are at it. Flames have been the underdog a lot lately and will be the favourite in the majority of their remaining games.

They still have to play the games but it's likely the Flames record is vastly better the rest of the way. Not guaranteed but likely.

They are going from first to thirty second

Do the Flames (or any other team) have a better shot at beating Boston or Columbus on a given night? It boggles my mind some of you don't grasp how big a factor this is.

[transplant99]

Strength of schedule matters, to argue otherwise is silly. It, like all analytics, has flaws and ways to be interpreted.

It doesn't mean the team doesn't have flaws or should be any higher in the standings or anything like that.

It is an indicator though of what should/is likely to occur moving forward.

The Sagarin ratings have been around for a long time and from what i understand are pretty steady in predicting what happens not just game to game but also as the season progresses.

Arizona has had the toughest schedule thus far, Flames 2nd and Oilers 5th.

Using his formula however, the Yotes rank 28th, the Flames 13th, the Oilers 12th.

https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2023-2/...-ratings-2023/

[looooob]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Strength of schedule matters, to argue otherwise is silly. It, like all analytics, has flaws and ways to be interpreted.

It doesn't mean the team doesn't have flaws or should be any higher in the standings or anything like that.

It is an indicator though of what should/is likely to occur moving forward.

The Sagarin ratings have been around for a long time and from what i understand are pretty steady in predicting what happens not just game to game but also as the season progresses.

Arizona has had the toughest schedule thus far, Flames 2nd and Oilers 5th.

Using his formula however, the Yotes rank 28th, the Flames 13th, the Oilers 12th.

https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2023-2/...-ratings-2023/

for the record, I think the Flames have been playing poorly, underperforming, and I'm not happy with almost any aspect of their play


I also conceded that SOS has probably only cost them 2-4 points


still it is fun to look at this stuff early on- I mean look at Detroits schedule as a comparison


they've already played the Ducks/Sharks/Yotes 4 times (remember whose division these teams are in),the Jackets, the Hawks, the Habs twice, the Sabres now for the2nd time (and yes the Sabres beat the Flames and looked good- or we looked horrible- in the process-you still have to win the damn games), just saying you put the Flames/Wings schedules side by side it's hard not to see a difference

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Every sportsbook has done the math...go look at the odds. Look at the odds on a game to game basis while you are at it. Flames have been the underdog a lot lately and will be the favourite in the majority of their remaining games.

They still have to play the games but it's likely the Flames record is vastly better the rest of the way. Not guaranteed but likely.

They are going from first to thirty second

Do the Flames (or any other team) have a better shot at beating Boston or Columbus on a given night? It boggles my mind some of you don't grasp how big a factor this is.

Why are you so resistant to actually looking at the impact of strength of schedule? Not one person argues it is meaningless so maybe your mind would be less boggled if you took some time to appreciate this.

Average standing of the Flames opponents is about twelfth. Yes they have had the hardest schedule. The difference between that and an average schedule is about two points.

How many points do you think the schedule has "cost" them?

[Enoch Root]

The Flames' winning percentage is .523

Their opposition has a winning percentage of .614 and the league average is .550

.523 X .614 / .550 = .584

A .584 would give them 26 pts and would have them comfortably in 3rd in the division (by WP%) as opposed to being in 5th.

Three points doesn't sound like a lot, but a record of 12-8-2, and being in 3rd in the Pacific, sounds a lot better than where they currently sit.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Why are you so resistant to actually looking at the impact of strength of schedule? Not one person argues it is meaningless so maybe your mind would be less boggled if you took some time to appreciate this.

Average standing of the Flames opponents is about twelfth. Yes they have had the hardest schedule. The difference between that and an average schedule is about two points.

How many points do you think the schedule has "cost" them?

they haven't had the 12th hardest schedule they have had the hardest schedule.

We can bump this in a month...Flames are currently one game above .500. I think its a safe bet their December is more than 2 points better than November.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The Flames' winning percentage is .523

Their opposition has a winning percentage of .614 and the league average is .550

.523 X .614 / .550 = .584

A .584 would give them 26 pts and would have them comfortably in 3rd in the division (by WP%) as opposed to being in 5th.

Three points doesn't sound like a lot, but a record of 12-8-2, and being in 3rd in the Pacific, sounds a lot better than where they currently sit.

So if Flames SOS comes back to the mean, we should hope for three more points vs. expected the rest of the way.

You're right three points is not a lot. IMO teams that are separated by three points in the standings with 60 games remaining are essentially tied. I would not feel any different about the team at all and would still care much more about how they are playing.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by dino7c

they haven't had the 12th hardest schedule they have had the hardest schedule.

We can bump this in a month...Flames are currently one game above .500. I think its a safe bet their December is more than 2 points better than November.

Go back and read post #1 in this thread. Who is claiming they have the 12th hardest schedule?

Can we at least agree on facts and data if we are going to have some halfway intelligent debate.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Go back and read post #1 in this thread. Who is claiming they have the 12th hardest schedule?

Can we at least agree on facts and data if we are going to have some halfway intelligent debate.

You are suggesting their schedule is slightly harder than average which isn't even close to being true. You are also not factoring in their division or conference in which they haven't played the bottom teams
The Flames have 23 games of 60 against
Anaheim, Chicago, SJ, Ottawa, Phoenix, Vancouver, Columbus...many of whom will be in absolute tank mode especially later in the year

Anaheim has ONE regulation win on December 1st

like I said we can bump this and decide how big a factor it is...every sportsbook I follow thinks its much bigger than 2 points.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Still waiting for the easy games for the Seantors during the covid season, easy wins right?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

So if Flames SOS comes back to the mean, we should hope for three more points vs. expected the rest of the way.

You're right three points is not a lot. IMO teams that are separated by three points in the standings with 60 games remaining are essentially tied. I would not feel any different about the team at all and would still care much more about how they are playing.

Clearly math isn't your thing.

As pretty much everyone in this thread has agreed, they need to play better. There have been other problems. The point of the SOS issue is that it has ALSO contributed to, and heightened, their struggles. Full stop.

[hansmoleman]

I think CGY12 is the best poster on CP, that is all.