Strength of Schedule Update

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Huh?

How can it not?

When the average team you've played is 11th overall compared to your peers who are between 13th and 15th it has to be a variable.

A team can still suck, and be full marks for their own warts and issues but go up against a stronger schedule and have worse results because of a smaller margin of error.

I appreciate that you are trying to come up with positives but I think the schedule thing is a little overrated. It's not like they spent 5 weeks straight on the road like the Islanders last year. That's an example of the schedule that altered the record of a team. There are so many variables over a regular season as for example that Panthers team last night is considered a good team but were terrible last night on the 2nd half of a back to back. The Flames lost at home earlier in the season when the Sabres were streaking hot. They could play them tomorrow and the Sabres would not be nearly the same team. It all averages out and you are what the standings says you are. I'm sure a few games against the Coyotes may help prop the team up but the way this team plays, every game is a grind regardless of the opponent as there will be few easy outs this season.

IMO if they turn things around it will be more due to improved play from the goaltenders and skill players than anything to do with the schedule.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I appreciate that you are trying to come up with positives but I think the schedule thing is a little overrated. It's not like they spent 5 weeks straight on the road like the Islanders last year. That's an example of the schedule that altered the record of a team. There are so many variables over a regular season as for example that Panthers team last night is considered a good team but were terrible last night on the 2nd half of a back to back. The Flames lost at home earlier in the season when the Sabres were streaking hot. They could play them tomorrow and the Sabres would not be nearly the same team. It all averages out and you are what the standings says you are. I'm sure a few games against the Coyotes may help prop the team up but the way this team plays, every game is a grind regardless of the opponent as there will be few easy outs this season.

IMO if they turn things around it will be more due to improved play from the goaltenders and skill players than anything to do with the schedule.

LOL. That's the whole point - it does all average out, but it most definitely has not, as of yet. Last night is an example of how the schedule is kind sometimes, and unkind other times. Those things average out, and the Flames are due for some kind games because they have had a whole lot of unkind games so far.

[dino7c]

Strength of schedule is about the opponent not home/away which isn't a big factor in the NHL anyway other than long road trips. (Flames have already done their longest)

They survived the hardest strength of schedule in the league by far for 2 months...now it's time to take advantage of the softest

[Icantwhisper]

We here this every year from the same people, this year it's strength of schedule they've latched on to, last year is was too many back to backs.
Just people trying to figure out why the Flames aren't doing as well as we thought without blaming the Flames for poor play.
" The league is out to get us" is getting old, we need to play better, we were supposed to be an elite team this year, elite teams dictate play and don't make excuses.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Home and away is still statistically significant. More important though is rested vs b2b.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Icantwhisper

We here this every year from the same people, this year it's strength of schedule they've latched on to, last year is was too many back to backs.
Just people trying to figure out why the Flames aren't doing as well as we thought without blaming the Flames for poor play.
" The league is out to get us" is getting old, we need to play better, we were supposed to be an elite team this year, elite teams dictate play and don't make excuses.

You can try to complain about the most extreme, and silly posts. Or you can try to actually participate in the conversation.

Literally no one has claimed the league is out to get us here. Over the course of the season, the strength of schedules all balance out. But that doesn't mean that there aren't periods where things can get lopsided. And Bingo has posted a chart literally illustrating just how lopsided it has been to date.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

It all averages out and you are what the standings says you are.

It does after 82 games, but until then not really.

It's why I don't think the Devils are among the cup favorites. They've had a ridiculously easy schedule and while they will make the playoffs and maybe win a round or two, that's probably about as far as they'll go.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Icantwhisper

We here this every year from the same people, this year it's strength of schedule they've latched on to, last year is was too many back to backs.
Just people trying to figure out why the Flames aren't doing as well as we thought without blaming the Flames for poor play.
" The league is out to get us" is getting old, we need to play better, we were supposed to be an elite team this year, elite teams dictate play and don't make excuses.

You are totally missing the point

Nobody is saying the league is out to get the Flames because the schedule evens out. This is math, the Flames opponents thus far have a better record than any other teams opponents. It's a fact.
Based on this it's reasonable to assume the Flames record will improve. It's a factor...if it wasn't every games odds would be 50/50. You won't win every game but it's more likely any given team beats Anaheim than Boston (duh)

Sportsbooks have the Flames like 85% to make the playoffs despite being 1 game above .500
They aren't making excuses for the Flames they are doing the math and factoring the schedule.

Flames have lots of Anaheim, SJ, Chicago, Arizona ect. in their future considering they haven't played any of them.

The Ducks have ONE regulation win this season...they have given away points in EVERY other game. Schedule matters.

[flamesgod]

Harder opponent = harder to win.
Easier opponent = easier to win.

We will see more wins in December because of this.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I appreciate that you are trying to come up with positives but I think the schedule thing is a little overrated. It's not like they spent 5 weeks straight on the road like the Islanders last year. That's an example of the schedule that altered the record of a team. There are so many variables over a regular season as for example that Panthers team last night is considered a good team but were terrible last night on the 2nd half of a back to back. The Flames lost at home earlier in the season when the Sabres were streaking hot. They could play them tomorrow and the Sabres would not be nearly the same team. It all averages out and you are what the standings says you are. I'm sure a few games against the Coyotes may help prop the team up but the way this team plays, every game is a grind regardless of the opponent as there will be few easy outs this season.

IMO if they turn things around it will be more due to improved play from the goaltenders and skill players than anything to do with the schedule.

I'm just coming up with facts.

You're the one trying to pretend these facts don't exist.

If you play, on average, better teams than other teams are playing you have a tougher schedule. Not sure why anyone would argue that.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Icantwhisper

We here this every year from the same people, this year it's strength of schedule they've latched on to, last year is was too many back to backs.
Just people trying to figure out why the Flames aren't doing as well as we thought without blaming the Flames for poor play.
" The league is out to get us" is getting old, we need to play better, we were supposed to be an elite team this year, elite teams dictate play and don't make excuses.

Brutal representation of what was said.

I'm not the one adding passion to this discussion ... just pointing out that a measure has the Flames playing the toughest slate of opponents to date.

Nobody has said the league is out to get anyone.

Simple math. Simple facts.

Have to wonder if people prefer the Flames losing when you see some of the push back on simple averages.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Home and away is still statistically significant.

True, but at this point the Flames have played 12 at home and 10 on the road. That difference is not enough to be statistically significant.

[Strange Brew]

From what I have read home teams earn about 55% of available points in the NHL. So that is statistically significant but after 22 games with what is now closer to an even split, rather meaningless.

I don't how to quantify the Flames harder schedule. oOes that means 2 or 3 points less than expected vs. an average schedule? I suppose. With so few games, I'm not putting much weight in any of it really. Two wins or two losses in a row has such a dramatic effect with so few games played.

[dino7c]

Flames schedule hasn't been just a bit strong though...look at the graph its been far and away the hardest. Simple math.

Flames haven't played any of the bottom 3 teams in their own division...its an anomaly. Ducks have played 23 games and given up points in 22 of them.

Schedule matters if you are comparing records (standings)

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Flames schedule hasn't been just a bit strong though...look at the graph its been far and away the hardest. Simple math.

Flames haven't played any of the bottom 3 teams in their own division...its an anomaly. Ducks have played 23 games and given up points in 22 of them.

Schedule matters if you are comparing records (standings)

I have a buddy that used to tell me that once the playoffs start all 16 teams have equal chance of winning the cup. I told him that didn't make sense and some teams are more likely than others to win. So, we bet 3 years in a row, and I picked 8 teams that I thought would win the cup and he got the 8 I didn't pick. I won the bet 3 years in a row and often I had all 4 teams in the conference finals. Bet was over after round 2.

I don't know how anyone can argue that strength of schedule does not matter. It's way more important than road vs home games or even back to backs. How could anyone argue beating teams like Boston is equal to beating teams like Arizona.

Does it mean the Flames won't choke and lose some games they should win? Nope, but it no question more likely you will win a bunch if you have a run of games against bad teams. It's amazing that it even needs to be argued.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Flames schedule hasn't been just a bit strong though...look at the graph its been far and away the hardest. Simple math.

Flames haven't played any of the bottom 3 teams in their own division...its an anomaly. Ducks have played 23 games and given up points in 22 of them.

Schedule matters if you are comparing records (standings)

No one is saying strength of schedule doesn't matter. It's a question of how much. If the Flames played an average schedule, what would be their expected point total based on how they have played to date?

Per the graph, average standing of Flames opponents is around 12th. Which is Detroit at 26 points.

League average in the graph is 16th, which is the Rangers with 24 points.

So since it is simple math as you say, if you played all your games against the Rangers instead of Detroit, you'd expect to have two points more. Wow.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

No one is saying strength of schedule doesn't matter. It's a question of how much. If the Flames played an average schedule, what would be their expected point total based on how they have played to date?

Per the graph, average standing of Flames opponents is around 12th. Which is Detroit at 26 points.

League average in the graph is 16th, which is the Rangers with 24 points.

So since it is simple math as you say, if you played all your games against the Rangers instead of Detroit, you'd expect to have two points more. Wow.

I get your point, tricky with small numbers of course (in your example Wings have played 2 less games than Rangers anyways?)


currently I think the Flames opponents are picking up points at about a .645 clip- looking over last year that puts them somewhere between Boston and Edmonton, about 105 points, versus the league median team is at about 95 points


so over the whole season it's an appreciable difference and could certainly be the difference between playoffs and not- in the smaller run- sure I agree, maybe if we are generous we can add 2 points to the Flames


up to them whether they decide to make hay once they hit the soft teams

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

No one is saying strength of schedule doesn't matter. It's a question of how much. If the Flames played an average schedule, what would be their expected point total based on how they have played to date?

Per the graph, average standing of Flames opponents is around 12th. Which is Detroit at 26 points.

League average in the graph is 16th, which is the Rangers with 24 points.

So since it is simple math as you say, if you played all your games against the Rangers instead of Detroit, you'd expect to have two points more. Wow.

But you don't play all your games against Detroit or the Rangers. You play every team over the course of the season. This just says the Flames have played better opponents than average, which means they will play poorer teams the rest of the way, until all teams play all the others (conference/division differences ignored).

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by looooob

I get your point, tricky with small numbers of course (in your example Wings have played 2 less games than Rangers anyways?)


currently I think the Flames opponents are picking up points at about a .645 clip- looking over last year that puts them somewhere between Boston and Edmonton, about 105 points, versus the league median team is at about 95 points


so over the whole season it's an appreciable difference and could certainly be the difference between playoffs and not- in the smaller run- sure I agree, maybe if we are generous we can add 2 points to the Flames


up to them whether they decide to make hay once they hit the soft teams

The answer is no different if you look at points percentage vs. actual points.

All it is telling you is that if you took the most Flames centric approach possible, the schedule has "cost" the Flames two points thus far and they should be able to "gain" those two points over the remainder of the season as it balances out. Balance it with the Flames having played two more home games than away, and the difference shrinks even more.

It is a total nothing burger.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

No one is saying strength of schedule doesn't matter. It's a question of how much. If the Flames played an average schedule, what would be their expected point total based on how they have played to date?

Per the graph, average standing of Flames opponents is around 12th. Which is Detroit at 26 points.

League average in the graph is 16th, which is the Rangers with 24 points.

So since it is simple math as you say, if you played all your games against the Rangers instead of Detroit, you'd expect to have two points more. Wow.

Except the Flames have had the hardest schedule so far and thus have the easiest remaining

not average, easiest remaining of 32 teams

Look at their December schedule and tell me if you think they will likely only be 2 points better than November.

Flames are 1 game above .500 and every sportsbook has them in the playoffs with better odds than teams well ahead of them currently...why is that?

Flames have 17 games left against Anaheim, SJ, Phoenix, Chicago, Columbus...just off the top of my head