Strength of Schedule Update

[Bingo]

November 30th:

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Out of curiousity, do you have the forecast strength of schedule. I think the script starts flipping now, no?

[Fighting Banana Slug]

I had to do a double take, as at first I thought it implied and easy schedule for the Flames. Clearly not the case, having very few games against the Cali teams or the pure Tanks.

[Jbo]

Interesting to see the Devils schedule has been second easiest in the league if I am reading this right.

[malcolmk14]

Those 3 teams fighting it out in the Central are going to be tough to beat. Flames need to get top 3 in the Pacific and avoid going into Colorado as a wildcard.

Long way to go but Flames/Kraken in round 1 seems to be about the best-case scenario.

[Kovaz]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

Out of curiousity, do you have the forecast strength of schedule. I think the script starts flipping now, no?

December gets significantly easier. 14/16 games against non-playoff teams last I checked.

[Erick Estrada]

I still don't think the strength of schedule has much to do with how poorly they have played. Even last night they didn't look that great and benefitted from a team that played the night before with a slumping goaltender. I don't foresee an easier schedule making a big difference as long as they continue to play the type of hockey they have been playing. IMO it's more Flames issues than schedule or strength of opponents. Lots of players not playing to their previous levels from goaltending out.

[Kasi]

I think easier SoS plus starting Vladar might turn some close losses against bad teams to wins. I agree with Erick that how they play is more important but it could give them a handful more points over this stretch.

[Zarley]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I still don't think the strength of schedule has much to do with how poorly they have played. Even last night they didn't look that great and benefitted from a team that played the night before with a slumping goaltender. I don't foresee an easier schedule making a big difference as long as they continue to play the type of hockey they have been playing. IMO it's more Flames issues than schedule or strength of opponents. Lots of players not playing to their previous levels from goaltending out.

Disagree - they played a much cleaner game defensively with fewer defensive zone fire drill moments than typical of late. Hope to see that continue.

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by malcolmk14

Those 3 teams fighting it out in the Central are going to be tough to beat. Flames need to get top 3 in the Pacific and avoid going into Colorado as a wildcard.

Long way to go but Flames/Kraken in round 1 seems to be about the best-case scenario.

And that would be just awesome for travel!

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

Out of curiousity, do you have the forecast strength of schedule. I think the script starts flipping now, no?

It may take most of the season to regress back to the mean.

In December, 12 out of 16 games are against 'non playoff' teams, so the script will start flipping now.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Jbo

Interesting to see the Devils schedule has been second easiest in the league if I am reading this right.

Third easiest.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I still don't think the strength of schedule has much to do with how poorly they have played. Even last night they didn't look that great and benefitted from a team that played the night before with a slumping goaltender. I don't foresee an easier schedule making a big difference as long as they continue to play the type of hockey they have been playing. IMO it's more Flames issues than schedule or strength of opponents. Lots of players not playing to their previous levels from goaltending out.

I agree, this team hasn't played well at all and I believe their record would be pretty similar if we were say middle of the road for strength of schedule.

They're beating themselves with poor play and goaltending. Crappier opponents probably would have got us an extra win or two so far, if we're lucky, imo.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I still don't think the strength of schedule has much to do with how poorly they have played. Even last night they didn't look that great and benefitted from a team that played the night before with a slumping goaltender. I don't foresee an easier schedule making a big difference as long as they continue to play the type of hockey they have been playing. IMO it's more Flames issues than schedule or strength of opponents. Lots of players not playing to their previous levels from goaltending out.

Could not agree more.

Not to mention that in my experience watching the Flames over the years, you absolutely cannot count the "easier" opponents as automatic wins as typically the team plays down to their opponent / take them for granted. Many, many, many losses in "guaranteed win" games over the years, and this year would be no different. In fact if anything, the Flames tend to do well against the really good teams.

I think the "strength of schedule" is an excuse. However, I also think the team is going to turn this around and get back on track and finish the season strong.

[Burning Beard]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I still don't think the strength of schedule has much to do with how poorly they have played. Even last night they didn't look that great and benefitted from a team that played the night before with a slumping goaltender. I don't foresee an easier schedule making a big difference as long as they continue to play the type of hockey they have been playing. IMO it's more Flames issues than schedule or strength of opponents. Lots of players not playing to their previous levels from goaltending out.

If you swap out your core and are trying to find new team chemistry and learn the new system and teammates is it going to be easier playing only top teams or teams that are tanking or no good? I think the team will hit their stride getting some games against teams that aren't contenders so they have the time and space to build chemistry and confidence.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I still don't think the strength of schedule has much to do with how poorly they have played. Even last night they didn't look that great and benefitted from a team that played the night before with a slumping goaltender. I don't foresee an easier schedule making a big difference as long as they continue to play the type of hockey they have been playing. IMO it's more Flames issues than schedule or strength of opponents. Lots of players not playing to their previous levels from goaltending out.

Huh?

How can it not?

When the average team you've played is 11th overall compared to your peers who are between 13th and 15th it has to be a variable.

A team can still suck, and be full marks for their own warts and issues but go up against a stronger schedule and have worse results because of a smaller margin of error.

[SuperMatt18]

Toughest Strength of Schedule
27th in Shooting Percentage (8.75%)
24th in Save Percentage (.891)
29th in PDO (.978)

All that considered they're actually a bit lucky to be 10-9-3 and in the hunt for a playoff spot.

Originally Posted by jayswin

I agree, this team hasn't played well at all and I believe their record would be pretty similar if we were say middle of the road for strength of schedule.

They're beating themselves with poor play and goaltending. Crappier opponents probably would have got us an extra win or two so far, if we're lucky, imo.

Two extra wins is substantial though.

12-7-3 and I doubt there is as much concern about the team when they have a top 10 record in the league.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I still don't think the strength of schedule has much to do with how poorly they have played. Even last night they didn't look that great and benefitted from a team that played the night before with a slumping goaltender. I don't foresee an easier schedule making a big difference as long as they continue to play the type of hockey they have been playing. IMO it's more Flames issues than schedule or strength of opponents. Lots of players not playing to their previous levels from goaltending out.

I agree that they haven't been playing very well, but i disagree with the bold.

They haven't played very well, the goaltending has been weak, their PP hasn't been great, and there have been a few game-impacting calls against them so far. And these things have all contributed to them losing games that they probably should have, or could have, won. But in every game, they have been playing good teams that are (usually) on a roll. Which has definitely contributed to the record. If their strength of schedule for the first 20 games wasn't so ridiculous, they probably would have had 2 or 3 more wins than they got, which would have made all the difference.

If they continue to play the same way over the next month, their record will likely be better anyway, simply because the teams they will be playing won't be as able to take advantage of those same mistakes. However, I think it's much more than that - confidence is a HUGE thing in hockey, and as they start playing easier opponents, the goals and the Ws will come (as we saw last night), and that will inspire confidence which will get them playing better.

I think we'll see more wins regardless, however, I also think we'll see improved play, as their confidence returns.

[Toonage]

Schedule gets easier but they still have to win the games.

Last year's Sharks game (around this time) always pops into my head.

AHL club, depleted, whooped the Flames.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Toughest Strength of Schedule
27th in Shooting Percentage (8.75%)
24th in Save Percentage (.891)
29th in PDO (.978)

All that considered they're actually a bit lucky to be 10-9-3 and in the hunt for a playoff spot.



Two extra wins is substantial though.

12-7-3 and I doubt there is as much concern about the team when they have a top 10 record in the league.

Yup. Two more wins and they are currently at a .614 clip, and comfortably in 3rd in the Pacific (in winning percentage)