Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[GGG]

Originally Posted by heep223

Yes a number have directly said that the uncertainty in the political and regulatory environment in Alberta has led to shelving projects and/or moving their capital out of Alberta (ie in the case of US investors)

So certainty has been restored and the money will flow again right??? Or were those statements an effort to pressure the government to produce a certain outcome of this review.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by GGG

So certainty has been restored and the money will flow again right??? Or were those statements an effort to pressure the government to produce a certain outcome of this review.

Okay, once again, it isnt a light-switch. They werent just hanging around with their money in their pockets they spent that money elsewhere.

So maybe some Capital investment will return. Eventually.

Thats sort of why doing this in a timely manner was kind of important but lets not let reality get in the way.

[codfather]

No change is the right decision but the missed investment for 2016 and reduced for 2015 hurts, especially given the current economic conditions. If there are any silver linings to be found, it's that we've now been through this (twice) and if even the NDP are saying "things are good with royalties" then hopefully this will mean no more fataing reviews for a long time!

[heep223]

Originally Posted by GGG

So certainty has been restored and the money will flow again right??? Or were those statements an effort to pressure the government to produce a certain outcome of this review.

Well, it depends on who we're talking about. You have to realize though that for large multinationals, they have the option to go anywhere in the world. For US producers and/or investors, they can easily retreat back to their own patch. And in some of these cases the damage will have been done for a while anyways, they can't just flip right back in.

I'm sure some of the Canadian born and bred producers who cited uncertainty as a reason for shelving projects would fall into your latter category, at least in part.

[chemgear]

We did it! We got our Fair Share(tm)!!


I haven't had a chance to look into all the details but is it pretty much this?

Spoiler!

[puckedoff]

Seems to me when she actually took a look at the royalties paid, and actually spoke with energy executives she received an education and some perspective on how a "fair share" is created in the first place.

Would be nice if all NDP voters could take that course....

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Locke

Okay, once again, it isnt a light-switch. They werent just hanging around with their money in their pockets they spent that money elsewhere.

So maybe some Capital investment will return. Eventually.

Thats sort of why doing this in a timely manner was kind of important but lets not let reality get in the way.

But the money in their pockets wasn't coming here anyways. Under the current Royalty regime they weren't profiable.

I think a higher level question that needs to be answered is How often should the province of Alberta review its royalty structure and should market conditions play into the timing of this review.

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Political uncertainty has explicitly been called out as a reason for companies to shift investments out of Alberta, yes.

As to Notley's decision to do nothing, that is unsurprising. Even so, I'm a little surprised she didn't try to get blood from a stone anyway.

Yes, as stated, companies who dont want to give up more profits will of course threaten and whine and throw tantrums any times a tax hike is discussed and threaten that it will throw the world asunder. This hardly means anything.

[CaptainCrunch]

Once that money left (investments) it went elsewhere, its not like the Oil companies are going to pop open their wallets again with this announcement.

If the announcement would have happened right at the beginning, it might have saved some money from leaving the province. Now its gone and invested in other things.

With the Pipeline issues that are happening now, its likely that the possible investors, won't be shifting the dollars back as the environment really hasn't changed positively or negatively with this announcement.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Once that money left (investments) it went elsewhere, its not like the Oil companies are going to pop open their wallets again with this announcement.

If the announcement would have happened right at the beginning, it might have saved some money from leaving the province. Now its gone and invested in other things.

With the Pipeline issues that are happening now, its likely that the possible investors, won't be shifting the dollars back as the environment really hasn't changed positively or negatively with this announcement.

Really its always been the pipeline issue. Its been Price, Access to Market, Access to Capital ............................ Royalties. I fully agree with you that Capital dollars will be limited in this province until the pipeline issues get resolved.

[Flames.Central]

Just curious as to what you all think the outcome of the review would of been had the oil been at around the 80$ mark?

I am thinking it's good the review happened with the current oil prices rather than a healthy oil price. Thoughts?

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Once that money left (investments) it went elsewhere, its not like the Oil companies are going to pop open their wallets again with this announcement.

And nevermind the market sentiment that Alberta is now a place that is relatively speaking, less business friendly (wage increases, looming deficits due to uncontrolled budget spending, tax increases, etc.)

Heck, with how the NDP are running things, what's to say they don't open up another review in a year or two. Or jack up tax rates again shortly to try to cover up the deficit rather than try to control spending.

As a business/market, it is not merely just one announcement they're looking at.

[Locke]

Haha! Shes getting called out for previously slamming the previous Government's 'unfair Royalty Regime' and now trotting out the exact same plan as though its her idea of awesomeness.

Totally. Clueless.

[PeteMoss]

They would have changed it had oil not been in the tank.

They adapted to the current situation instead of forcing through their own agenda.

You'd think people would be happy.

[Locke]

Ha!

"A big money grab is just not beneficial for Albertans right now!"

No way! How do you explain the rest of your policies?

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Flames.Central

Just curious as to what you all think the outcome of the review would of been had the oil been at around the 80$ mark?

I am thinking it's good the review happened with the current oil prices rather than a healthy oil price. Thoughts?

Punitive? They'd certainly do their best to claw as much as they could get cover all their continued spending plans. Gimmie that Fair Share baby!

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Locke

How do you explain the rest of your policies?

"Revenue Neutral."

[codfather]

Originally Posted by Flames.Central

Just curious as to what you all think the outcome of the review would of been had the oil been at around the 80$ mark?

I am thinking it's good the review happened with the current oil prices rather than a healthy oil price. Thoughts?

Royalty rates are already on a sliding scale. When the price goes up, the royalty rate does too. I would hope that the panel is smart enough to consider this already.

[PeteMoss]

The anti-NDP crew is getting exactly what they want and they are still going off on the NDP.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Delgar

I'm happy they came to their senses... but... this is the greatest political troll job ever.

We have a reality TV star running for President in America. It's not even the best troll job currently going.